Macon County Lady Landowners will be doing a presentation and tour of the Michael D. Andreas Agriculture Building on Thursday, May 9,2024 at 1130am. If you are interested in attending you can call or email Katherine Betz at 217-672-8275 or nomn9527@yahoo.com or Pam Jarboe at 217-841-4420 or pdjarboe@prairienet.net. Thank you!
Market Recap:
Markets were sharply higher at the CBOT on Monday, led by wheat futures. Adding to the war-related premium from Ukraine/Russia is abnormally warm/dry weather in the latter, as well as dry weather in the US Plains, which caused Chicago futures to trade their highest spot levels since the last day of February. Key will be to what extent turn-around Tuesday shows up tomorrow. Getting sharp up days has not been the issue lately in the grains; the issue has been holding onto those gains in subsequent sessions.
Products were higher, May bean meal finished the day at 344.30, up 60 cents/ton, and May bean oil closed at 45.04, up 66 points. Friday's cattle on feed report provided a lift to the cattle markets to start the week; June live cattle closed at 178.05, up $2.37, and May feeders closed at 245.17, up $3.17. Both markets gapped higher to start Monday's trade, and gaps remained open on the charts as of the close. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are trading 20-30 cents/bbl lower, the Dow Jones index is up 375 points, and the US$ index is down 10 points. Of note, metals markets were sharply lower on Monday with gold futures down 70-75$/oz, and silver futures down around $1.60/oz, as increased tensions in the Middle East to end last week have subsided today.
Spreads were mixed/softer on Monday, corn spreads were down a half cent to up a half cent, and soybean spreads were down a quarter to cent to a penny and 1/4. CK/CN again made new highs today before closing at -10, while SK/SN again made new lows today, before closing at -15 1/2.
Not a lot of changes fundamentally to blame today's ag rally on. News remains mostly the same as recent weeks, with the funds possibly realizing with Friday's COT data they may be slightly too short going into a new growing season. Charts have again started to look more friendly, but May corn needs to see a trade and a close above 4.48 this week to confirm a change in trend; this is the stocks/acreage report day high. The similar number for the new crop corn is 4.81. Soybeans closed right on the downtrend line from the March high on Monday, with the next target in the old crop being the 20- and 50-day moving averages at 11.73. And lastly, July Chicago wheat futures traded to their 100-day moving average today for the first time since January before finding resistance here and backing off. Support for all three markets will now be seen at Friday's lows for the rest of this week.
This morning's weekly export inspections report saw another strong week of corn loadouts, while totals for soybeans and wheat were both seen within trade expectations. Corn inspections were seen at 1.624 mmt's, which was above trade expectations of 850k-1.5 mil mt’s and was also the largest weekly total of this marketing year. Pace currently sits 36% ahead of last year. Soybean inspections were seen at 435,256 mt's, compared with trade expectations for 300k-500k mt's. Pace is currently 18% behind last year. And wheat inspections were seen at 450,275 mt's, compared with expectations for 300k-650k mt's. Pace is currently 8% behind last year.
Chinese customs data over the weekend showed soybean imports from the US for the month of March were roughly half what they were last year, coming in at 2.18 mmt's. At the same time, imports from Brazil were up 81% from March of last year at 3.02 mmt's. Total imports for the month were seen at 5.54 mmt's which is the lowest March figure in the last four years. High prices and poor hog margins have discouraged soybean crush for feed consumption according to a spokesperson. Cumulative soybean imports for Jan-Mar from the US totaled 7.14 mmt's, nearly half from the same time in 2023; while cumulative shipments from Brazil are nearly 155% higher at 9.99 mmt's. As a reminder, the USDA no longer uses Chinese customs data to calculate soy demand from the country due to growing differences between this data, and data from exporters.
The USDA said on Monday its research agency had begun the process of assessing the potential for a vaccine against the H5N1 bird flu virus that has recently been found in US dairy cattle. As of the latest data, the virus has affected 29 dairy herds in eight states, though notably zero commercial herds have experienced infections since initial identification of the disease in late March. Authorities continue to say the virus poses little risk to human health. According to an APHIS (Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service) spokesperson, "It is difficult to predict how long development (of a vaccine) might take, as many outstanding questions remain about the transmission to cattle, characterizations of the infection, etc." The USDA has for some time been exploring vaccines for HPAI in poultry but has hit roadblocks from exporters who say using a vaccine would potentially kill their egg and poultry export markets due to it being impossible to identify products coming from infected animals.
This afternoon's crop progress report is expected to show that as of Sunday corn planting in the US reached 12% complete, which would be double the progress seen last week. Soybean planting is seen at 7% complete, compared to 3% last week. Both figures are basically right in line with recent averages. Winter wheat conditions are seen declining again, with analysts estimating 54% of the crop in the g/ex category, down from 55% last week. And lastly, Spring wheat is seen 12% planted, up from 7% last week.
In weather news, the GFS is wetter at mid-day, but weather models are otherwise unchanged in the afternoon runs. The Northern corn belt will see a round of showers Tuesday with more widespread rain coming this weekend/next week. The EU model, which has been the more accurate of late, sees totals of 1-3" for Texas/Oklahoma into Missouri and Iowa over the next 10 days. Cool air lingers this week before a warmer bias return for the opening days of May. Models do see one more low-pressure trough, possibly bringing cool air into the East beyond the first week of May, which will need monitoring.
No changes for South American weather at mid-day. Heavy rains are seen in a pocket of SE Brazil/NE Argentina which will delay what little soybean harvest remains. The rest of Argentina picks up light, scattered showers over the next 10 days, while the majority of Brazil is dry as the monsoon season comes to an end. Temps will be above average in Central/Southern Brazil over the next 10 days.
Have a great evening!
Chelsey White
Emery Manager & Originator:: Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.
593 Emery Rd :: Maroa, IL 61756
Phone:: 217-794-2240
E-Mail:: cwhite@tfgrain.com
Web:: www.topflightgrain.com
This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc. Topflight Grain is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact Topflight Grains designated personnel for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.
