Morning Markets: Corn: +1.25.
Beans: -4.25. Wheat: +1.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Ag commodity trade to start the month of November has been generally quiet through the overnight hours and into this morning, with grain and soy futures mixed in light volume. Outside of the US harvest - which will start to wrap up across a lot of areas in the next couple weeks - the markets have had a macro lean for some time now, and this is likely to become the theme again this week amid the looming midterm elections and their perceived impact on world geopolitics. World supply will always be a piece of price discovery in CBOT futures markets, but today, we see the biggest market factors in terms of risk as still being the war in the Middle East, the war in the Black Sea region, and whether or not Chinese buyers show up in the US grain export market in a meaningful way, and election results could very well influence one if not all of those three inputs throughout the week this week. Corn futures to start the new week and month are trading 3-4 cents higher this morning, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-3 cents higher.
Trivia: River Phoenix played Chris Chambers in what classic 1986 American film? (answer below)
Crude Oil is down $6.34 at $97.78
US Dollar is down at $101.61
Dow futures are up 326 points at 52,244
WEATHER:
- What's left of the Midwest harvest looks to hit a slowdown in pace over the next week or so, with weekend rains that showed up in the west set to expand east through the week this week as a fairly large low pressure system works across the mid-section of the country. The EU model this morning has totals between now and the end of the day on Thursday ranging from 1-3" generally speaking for most of the Midwest, though exact locations/amounts could see totals on either side of this range
- Temperatures, while cooler than those seen throughout most of the week last week, look to remain on the warmer side of average for this time of year across most all of the US this week, as the models are still keeping cooler arctic air absent through at least the weekend and into the second week of November.
- Not a lot new this morning for the Brazil weather forecast out of the weekend, as the models are still in good agreement on the same general pattern seen throughout much of October lingering into the first part of November. Frontal boundaries will continue to keep the southern and south-central portions of the country wet, while the north stays dry and areas in the middle are somewhere in between. El Niño has had little if any adverse impact to this point, but its effect on Amazon dryness into December/January and then further into the new year is going to continue to be a major risk.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- Friday's CFTC Commitment of Traders update with data for the week ending October 27th showed managed money traders in the week were sellers of 90,315 contracts of corn (+55,943), sellers of 21,536 contracts of soybeans (+185,400 MTs), and sellers of 23,726 contracts of Chicago wheat (-74,859); in the products, funds sold 34,834 contracts of meal (+169,859) and sold 13,587 contracts of oil (+56,271).
- NOPA is set to release monthly soybean crush data for September later this morning - traders see the report showing US crush in the month at 200.7 mil bu, which would be a 13-month low and down a little more than 4% from the previous month amid seasonal downtime ahead of the fall harvest period and as some processors struggled to get supplies amid delays caused by wet weather. Soybean oil stocks as of the end of the month are estimated at 1.534 bil lbs, which would be down 10% from August and down 12% from Sep last year.
- Despite ongoing attacks in the region, private data from consultancy APK-Inform released on Monday showed Ukraine grain exports in the week dated October 22-28 were up more than 4% from the week prior at 273,900 MTs. Peace talks remain ongoing as of this morning, with President Zelensky meeting with Turkish mediators and President Erdogan today in Istanbul; the Turkish delegation says it will also be meeting with President Putin and Russia.
- In a monthly update last week, the European Commission further trimmed its corn and wheat crop estimates for the bloc; the group now sees 2026/27 corn production at just 47.0 MMTs, down from 48.3 MMTs last month, while wheat production is seen at 123.7 MMTs, down from 124.2 last month. Wheat exports were left unchanged at 29.0 MMTs, but ending stocks were seen at just 10.6 MMTs, down from 11.4 MMTs previously.
- OPEC+ oil producers over the weekend signaled plans to leave production quotas unchanged during the month of December, as conflict in the Middle East continues to disrupt output.
EXPORT NEWS:
- 1,729,740 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico. Of the total, 1,135,380 metric tons is for delivery during the 2026/2027 marketing year and 594,360 metric tons is for delivery during the 2027/2028 marketing year
- 136,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2026/2027 marketing year
Answer: Stand By Me. Grossed $52.3 million with an $8 million budget.
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
