Morning Markets: Corn: -2.25 old & new.
Beans: -1.25 old & +1.50 new. Wheat: -1.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Happy WASDE day. Markets are mixed this morning ahead of what most expect to be a fairly dull June WASDE report, with the grains lower and the soy complex mixed amid what continues to be a more macro-driven ag space than normal for the middle of June. Traders are aware of ebbs and flows in the forecast and that there are pockets of the Midwest already dealing with weather issues, but like we've talked about for weeks now, it continues to be happenings in the Middle East and broader trade discussions both with China and Canada/Mexico that have, without a doubt, been the bigger drivers of price. Supply and demand data at 11am central time will briefly interrupt this sentiment, but likely does little to change the bigger overall picture.
Corn futures to start Thursday are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading either side of unchanged, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents lower also.
Brazil's CONAB, ahead of USDA updates later this morning, showed the country's soybean production in a monthly update at 180.253 MMTs, which is up just marginally from 180.1 MMTs seen last month. Total corn production was seen at 140.463 MMTs, also up just slightly from last month's 140.2 MMT estimate.
Crude Oil is up $0.20 at $90.23
US Dollar is up at $100.07
Dow futures are down 953 points at 49,918
WEATHER:
- Severe weather/thunderstorms impacted a good chunk of the central and northern parts of the Midwest on Wednesday, with another round of storms possible for the same region this afternoon/this evening. The SPC's storm report page for yesterday shows 16 tornado reports and 90 hail reports, with 13 of the hail reports being noted as large; the bulk of the tornado reports were near the MO/IA line. For rainfall, satellite data estimated totals in a range of a half inch to upwards of 7+" through parts of northern MO, with the bulk of central IL and WI picking up 2-3".
- Today's storms, according to radar simulation this morning, look to crank up in southwestern IA through the morning hours and then work north and east through the day today with a tail stretching from WI to OK by this afternoon/evening. Models have 24 hour rainfall totals ranging from a couple tenths to another 2-3" through northern IL/southern WI.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- Traders see this morning's weekly export sales report for the week ending June 4th showing old crop corn sales in the week between 700k-1.6 mil MTs, old crop soybean sales between 150k-400k MTs, and old crop wheat sales between (100k)-100k MTs. For new crop, corn sales are seen between 200k-500k MTs, soybean sales are seen between 100k-350k MTs, and wheat sales are seen between 200k-600k MTs.
- This morning's June WASDE update is expected to show little in terms of changes from last month according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts, with new crop corn ending stocks seen at 1.947 bil bu, new crop soybean ending stocks seen at 311 mil bu, and new crop wheat ending stocks seen at 764 mil bu. At the world level, corn stocks are seen at 278.5 MMTs, soybean stocks are seen at 125.3 MMTs, and wheat stocks are seen at 274.8 MMTs. From a production standpoint, corn and soybean production in the US, Brazil and Argentina are all seen similar to last month, and all wheat production is seen down slightly from last month at 1.555 bil bu.
- European trade group Coceral said this week that combined EU-UK corn production in 2026 was expected to reach 57.2 MMTs, which is down some 3 million tons from a previous estimate due in large part to a nearly 8% drop in planted area. The group said wheat production was expected to reach 143.7 MMTs, which would be down around 5% from last year but is little changed from a previous estimate.
- In Argentina, the Rosario Grain Exchange said in a monthly report that both soybean and wheat production were expected to be higher than previously thought, with soybean production now seen at 51.5 MMTs and wheat production seen at 20 MMTs mostly on better-than-expected yields. The group added that corn harvest had reached 55% and that production was still expected to reach a record 68 MMTs.
- Brazilian seed producer Boa Safra, who supplies roughly 10% of the country's soybean acreage annually, said this week that demand for longer season soy varieties is noticeably higher this year as farmers are preparing to see increased weather volatility via the arrival of El Niño later this year. The group's CEO said farmers had also been opting for more basic seed packages as a way to cut costs amid soaring input costs caused by the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
- Equity markets are bouncing this morning but tanked on Wednesday following inflation data that showed the annual level back above 4%, which was the largest monthly increase since the spring of 2023. While not necessarily unexpected, the figure gives added credence to ideas that rate increases are likely at some point between now and the end of the year, though no change is still expected to occur at next week's FOMC meeting.
EXPORT NEWS:
Weekly export sales for corn and beans were within expectations. Corn saw a large new crop sale of 36.5 mbu. Wheat was above expectations.
?
Noah Richardson
Topflight Grain Seymour
202 N Main Street, Seymour IL 61875
nrichardson@tfgrain.com
www.topflightgrain.com
