Morning Markets: Corn: -1.25.
Beans: +8. Wheat: +0.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. It's a sort of turn-around-Tuesday this morning after the lower trade seen to start the week on Monday, with the beans and meal higher, the oil lower, and the feed-grains not doing a lot of anything to get the second trading day of the week started. There wasn't much of anything to note with yesterday afternoon's crop progress update, which presumably leaves traders again to focus on the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty around the world, which now also includes Brazil along with Iran, China, and Russia/Ukraine. There's the crop specific side of the market, which includes production, crop quality, weather, etc., but then there's also this other "dark side" of the market, which includes ongoing wars, political strife, and macro-level inflation; both impact CBOT ag futures, but the question into the end of the year is which will win out and see more market influence into 2027. In the meantime, price discovery likely stays a convoluted affair for the foreseeable future, with headline risk remaining elevated. Corn futures into Tuesday morning are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 5-8 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading unchanged to a penny lower also.
Trivia: What is America’s favorite Halloween candy? (answer below)
Crude Oil is down $0.64 at $101.12
US Dollar is up at $102.18
Dow futures are up 46 points at 52,596
WEATHER:
- The EU model overnight expanded weekend rainfall across the mid-south and into the southeast, but still differs notably from the GFS solution through the eastern part of the region and up the East Coast. The pattern shift doesn't occur for another several days though, with much of the Corn Belt still seeing warm/dry conditions this week in the meantime. Timing and location are still being worked out, but a pattern shift into next week is looking more likely.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- At the state level for corn harvest, IA continues to see the biggest delays relative average, with progress still 20% behind; SD is 18% behind, MI is 15% behind, and OH is 11% behind. For soybeans, there are only a few notable delays relative to normal - NE is 7% behind, IA and KS are both 6% behind, and OH is just 4% behind.
- US ag attachés in the southern hemisphere on Monday showed additional wheat supplies compared to current USDA estimates - Australian production is now seen at 32.0 MMTs vs the USDA at 31 MMTs, while production in Argentina is seen at 23 MMTs vs the USDA at 21.5. Production south of the equator is likely to be critical this year due to crop losses in Europe over the summer and as supplies out of Russia and Ukraine remain heavily restricted.
- Chicago wheat futures traded lower on Monday in part due to sell pressure in the soy complex, but also on headlines that Russia was discussing safe-shipping proposals with Turkey, though it explicitly said that it sees zero prospects of reviving the old grain corridor deal or anything resembling it. Traders seemingly want to believe that progress is being made, but the situation on the ground continues to be little changed.
- The CFTC said at a conference last week that weekly Commitment of Traders updates, starting in December, will begin being released twice a week on Wednesday and Friday afternoons, still at the normal 2:30pm central time. No exact date was given for when the schedule change would officially go into effect.
- Grain exports out of the Black Sea region have continued to see significant problems, with data from Ukraine's ag ministry this week showing marketing year shipments since July 1 at just 6.2 MMTs, down some 32% from the same period last year. October exports were seen at just over a million tons, compared to around 2.5 MMTs of exports in the same month a year ago and compared to 960k tons in September.
- Several South American sources on Monday and overnight last night said farmer selling on the sharp currency move yesterday was elevated, but nearly to the level that was expected. FOB bids out of the Paranaguá port were said to be down 10-15 cents, with meal basis said to have behaved similarly. Brazilian real futures are quiet this morning and are trading near where they settled on Monday.
EXPORT NEWS:
- N/A
Answer: Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups.
Be careful!
