Morning Markets: Corn: -6 old & -5.75 new.
Beans: -10.75 old & -9.75 new. Wheat: -12.50.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Monday ag trade is lower this morning to start what will be just a four-day week of trade this week, with wheat and bean oil - the two markets still seeing the most influence from the Middle East of late - the downside leaders on what looks to be the most concrete progress to date on a deal to end the war in Iran. Crude oil futures are also sharply lower on the headlines, gapping lower to open last night and again trading to new lows for the move. Midwest weather and crop progress is a market factor, but it's macro happenings and geopolitics that are once again in the driver seat to get Monday started.
The corn market this morning is trading 4-5 cents lower, soybeans are trading 3-6 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 9-10 cents lower; all three have taken out last week's lows.
Crude Oil is down $4.55 at $80.33
US Dollar is down at $99.49
Dow futures are up 565 points at 52,170
WEATHER:
- Following an active weather week across the Midwest last week, things calmed down a bit over the weekend with Corn Belt rainfall generally limited to a fairly narrow band from eastern NE to southern MI/northern OH. KS/MO and areas south of here saw better coverage/totals, while areas north of here saw little if any precip the last 72 hours.
- For this week, a major low pressure system over the Hudson Bay region looks to be the main driver of weather across the Midwest, with temperatures expected to be notably cooler than last week while precip will be mostly the result of a pair of cut-off lows that look to work around the larger through mid-week. This morning's EU model precip run has rainfall totals into early Saturday morning ranging from a half inch to two inches or so through the upper Corn Belt, though there will be areas in the south-central part of the region that will be short-changed or miss out entirely.
- Meanwhile, heavier rains are seen impacting areas further south along the Gulf Coast and then over into the southeast, where rains of 2-8" are possible from north-central Mexico to the FL panhandle the next five days that could lead to flooding concerns. Heat this week, for the most part, stays west of the Rockies.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- Friday afternoon's CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed another massive week of fund selling across the ag space in the week ending June 9th. Managed money traders were sellers of 120,406 contracts of corn (-5,325), sellers of 65,294 contracts of soybeans (+90,756), and sellers of 21,537 contracts of Chicago wheat (-79,407). This was the largest week of fund selling in corn since Feb of 2023 and the largest week of fund selling in soybeans on record going back to 2006. Funds have sold nearly 300,000 contracts of corn in the last three weeks.
- In the soy products, managed money traders were sellers of a record 74,468 contracts of meal (+52,602) and were sellers of 24,997 contracts of oil (+131,436).
- NOPA (the National Oilseed Processors Association) is set to release monthly US soybean crush data later this morning at 11am central time. Traders see the report showing US crush in the month of May coming in at 216.015 mil bu, which if accurate, would be up around 2% from the April figure and up some 12% from May of last year. Traders also see the report showing soybean oil stocks as of the end of May at 1.855 bil lbs, which would be the lowest monthly reading since December.
- Wheat futures could also be seeing pressure this morning via headlines late last week that China had booked wheat shipments from France for the first time in nearly three years. If true, the business would seemingly indicate Chinese buyers are still not close to making purchases from the US, which many felt would be part of the $17 billion ag agreement made in May.
- With less than three weeks to go until the start of Ukraine's 2026/27 marketing year, data from the Ag Ministry's website shows total grain and legume exports currently down some 12% from a year ago at just 34.9 MMTs. The figure includes 13.1 MMTs of wheat, which is down 15%, and 19.9 MMTs of corn, which is down more than 6%.
- Safrinha corn harvest has begun in Brazil over the last couple weeks, with private group Patria AgroNegocios over the weekend indicating progress had reached 6.3% complete, which compares to 5.6% at this time a year ago. CONAB will update official crop progress figures for Brazil later this evening.
- Along with developments in the Middle East, much of the global business world this week will have an ear towards the annual G7 summit in France, which began today and runs through Wednesday. The latest in Iran is sure to be top-of-mind, but analysts assume Russia/Ukraine, trade with China/India, general global energy security, and world commodity flows will also be important topics of discussion.
- N/A
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
