Morning Markets: Corn: -0.25 old & -0.50 new.
Beans: -15.75 old & -9.75 new. Wheat: -3.75.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Happy New Year. And Happy Friday. Following a Wednesday sell-off to round out 2025, we see the CBOT likely opening mixed to lower to start 2026 in a continuation of this trade at 8:30am central time this morning. News was sparse that last 48 hours, and with today's trade being a sort of stand-alone one day session, we would assume a choppy, low-volume environment is most likely. The USDA on Wednesday announced that farmers will receive $44.36/acre for corn, $30.88/acre for soybeans, and $39.35/acre for wheat from the bridge payments that were announced earlier in December.
Crude Oil is down $0.59 at $56.83
US Dollar is up at $98.46
Global Equities: Japan +0.0%, China +0.0%, and Europe +0.0%
Dow futures are up 157 points at 48,493
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn +0.0% and Wheat +0.0%
WEATHER:
- Models see rainfall for the southeastern US tonight into tomorrow, while some light snowfall possibly impacts the Great Lakes and some northern parts of the Midwest; otherwise though, the bulk of the region will likely have fairly calm weather the next couple days into the first full week of 2026, with temperatures then warming again to much above average into the first part of next week.
- Nothing new for South America this morning over the last couple days, as the story remains one of concern related to hot and dry weather across Argentina the next 10-15 days. Like we've said previously, abundant soil moisture reserves at present will limit yield loss in the short term, but should this pattern persist into the back half of the month, there will be a story worth watching.
- Elsewhere, Brazil continues to see little if any concern aside from in small local regions in parts of the south, with rains expected for most all of the growing regions in the central and northern parts between now and this time next week. The heaviest totals look to fall in a band primarily north of Mato Grosso and the main ag belt, but these areas will still likely see upwards of 1-2" of rainfall.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- According to the CME Group for Friday, there were another 913 contracts of soybeans assigned for delivery overnight, along with 48 contracts of soybean oil and 50 contracts of rough rice.
- Friday's CFTC Commitment of Traders update, with data for the week ending December 23rd, showed managed money traders in the week were buyers of 55,431 contracts of corn (+2,759), sellers of 37,375 contracts of soybeans (+110,403) and sellers of 24,747 contracts of Chicago wheat (-91,665); in soy products, funds were sellers of 12,854 contracts of meal (-6,633) and also sellers of 26,078 contracts of soybean oil (-67,118). Of note, this is the most recent data, with reports current going forward.
- This afternoon's monthly fats and oils report from the USDA is expected to show US soybean crush in the month of November at 225.2 mil bu, which would be down 5% from the October figure, but still the second highest monthly reading ever if accurate. Soybean oil stocks as of the end of November are estimated at 1.906 bil lbs, which would be up 7% from October and up nearly 18% from November of last year. The report will be out along with monthly grain crushing data at 2pm central time.
- Data from the CME Group showed corn and soybean futures each saw record trading volumes in 2025, with corn trading roughly 109 million contracts and soybeans trading 74 million contracts. Wheat futures also saw a busy year, trading their most contracts since 2018 at 34 million. The figures highlight strong liquidity levels in the space, but also point to rising levels of computer and algorithm trading, which presumably is part of the reason behind the increased volume.
EXPORT NEWS:
- Private exporters reported sales of 132,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to South Korea during the 2025/2026 marketing year.
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
