Morning Markets: Corn: +2.25.
Beans: +5.50. Wheat: +0.25.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Happy Friday. Choppy remains the word for yet another day going into the end of the week this week, as ag markets across the CBOT are slightly higher this morning but have once again struggled to show many signs of life since the 7pm central time open last night. On a positive note, corn and wheat futures have scored new highs for the week again already today, but other than that, it’s pretty much the same story this morning as it’s been for the rest of the week this week. Following a day of noted fund movement on Thursday, key for today's session will be whether these traders continue to cover short positions for another day or if hedge pressure from the back half of harvest shows back up to limit the upside going into the weekend. Corn futures to start Friday are trading 2-3 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 4-5 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents higher. Products are seeing spread activity to start; soybean meal is up around $3/ton and soybean oil is down around 20 points. Outside markets are quietly mixed, crude oil futures are near unchanged. The Dow Jones index is up 20 points and the US$ index is down 5 points; the S&P500 is down 10 points, and the NASDAQ is down 75 points. Gold futures continue to chug along and have once again made new contract highs overnight.
Crude Oil is down $0.56 at $58.83
US Dollar is down at $98.344
Global Equities: Japan -1.0%, China -2.5%, and Europe -0.7%
Dow futures are down 55 points at 46,105
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn +0.1% and Wheat +0.1%
WEATHER:
- Additional light/scattered precip continued to dot the northwestern part of the Corn Belt on Thursday, though the best coverage continued to be seen further north and west of most of the main growing regions. As we go into the weekend, model show rains continuing further north into Canada through the day today, while a frontal boundary looks to provide anywhere from a couple tenths to 2-3 inches of rainfall from the mid-south and up through the central and eastern parts of the Midwest and into the Great Lakes region.
- Then further out, the EU model's week two forecast has continued to trend wetter again this morning throughout a large majority of the eastern half of the country, but the GFS has continued to not come along in this solution, which is keeping our confidence low. Both remain noticeably wet through the PNW and the northwestern part of the US.
- Weekend rains in South America will focus first on the southern part of Brazil for the next couple days before moisture slowly expands north into the middle of next week. The EU model this morning shows southern Brazil picking up 1-2+" through the end of the day on Saturday, while areas further to the north look to see anywhere from 0.5-2" more generally speaking, though exact coverage will be spotty. Argentina sees rain potential in the north into the first part of next week, while southern areas see light precip potential returning towards the middle/end of next week.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- The regular weekly export sales report continues to be delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown, but a Reuters poll of analysts shows that traders expected the report would've shown corn sales in the week ending October 9th between 900k-2.0 mil MTs, soybean sales between 500k-1.4 mil MTs, and wheat sales between 300k-650k MTs. Last week, traders estimated sales between 1.2-2.0 MMTs for corn, between 600k-1.6 mil MTs for soybeans, and between 350k-600k MTs for wheat.
- Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said in a televised press conference on Thursday that he expected to meet senior Chinese officials sometime in the next month or so to restart what he described as a broad engagement with the Asian country. Carney added that the two sides were having discussions focused on "a much broader range of issues than single sectors and single trades."
- According to a survey done by the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia, wheat harvest in the state could possibly reach a record 12.63 MMTs in the current season, while the total grain harvest is seen at 25.5 MMTs; both figures, if accurate, would be new records. The association said the area planted to crops in the state has increased by about 15% over the past four years as producers switch from livestock and pasture to crops.
- Data from Ukraine's ag ministry showed the country's exports of grains and legumes have fallen nearly 40% in the marketing year started July 1, and are seen at just 7.9 MMTs. The total includes 5.6 MMTs of wheat (-21%), 977k MTs of barely (-38%), and 1.14 MMTs of corn (-68%).
- A South Korean newspaper, citing an unnamed government official, said on Thursday that the US has asked South Korea to increase soybean imports during ongoing trade negotiations. Currently, around half of South Korea's total soybean imports come from the US. The report did not go into much further detail, but said the country's Finance Minister declined to comment on the situation ahead of the next G20 summit in November.
- President Trump said at a White House event on Thursday that his administration had struck a deal to lower the cost of beef to consumers, but declined to give further detail on what the federal effort entailed. Trump said to reporters that beef was one area where his efforts to fight inflation had missed the mark. "We worked our magic," said Trump.
- Data from the EPA on Thursday showed that the US generated about 1.23 billion ethanol credits (D6) in the month of September, which was up from 1.22 billion in August, and also generated about 660 million biodiesel credits (D4) in the month, which was up from 546 million in August.
- The US State Department said Secretary of State Marco Rubio and USTR Jameson Greer held productive talks with Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira this week that focused on trade and bilateral cooperation. Both sides described the discussions as “very positive” and agreed to arrange a meeting between President Trump and President Lula "as soon as possible," signaling a renewed effort to strengthen relations between the two countries amid broader global trade realignments.
- Following a 2+ hour phone call between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday, President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are scheduled to have meetings today where Trump said he would be briefing the latter on the contents of the discussion yesterday. Those familiar with the matter say Zelensky is likely to request longer range attack weapons from the US, however, it is unclear whether the planning of another meeting between Trump and Putin in a couple weeks will change his rhetoric.
EXPORT NEWS:
- N/A
Be safe!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
