Morning Markets: Corn: -3.25 old & -3.50 new.
Beans: -13.50 old & -13.25 new. Wheat: +3.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. CBOT ag markets were mixed/mostly higher to start the evening last night, but have since seen selling emerge and are now mostly lower coming out of the overnight session this morning on what has largely been a continuation of the news discussed for several days now. That said, price action today will likely in large part continue to be the result of ongoing risk assessment in both the Middle East and the Black Sea, along with forecast watching as the models continue to fine-tune this weekend's rainfall chances. Corn futures to start mid-week are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 10-12 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading either side of unchanged.
Crude Oil is up $5.30 at $84.56
US Dollar is up at $101.44
Dow futures are down 459 points at 52,485
WEATHER:
- Weather forecast models are continuing to fine-tune coming weekend rainfall for the Midwest this morning, but are otherwise little changed in their outlook of the overall pattern as high pressure ridging across the central US continues to be the most dominant feature. Rains over the next several days will be the result of ridge-riding thunderstorms, which is why the models have had so much trouble this week picking up on exact locations and totals. Heavier rains have seemingly moved north and west over the last 24 hours into more of the Dakotas and MN, but we would advise against taking model precip runs as gospel amid the convective nature of the coming systems.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- Weekly ethanol data from the EIA this morning is expected to show average daily production in the US during the week ending July 24th between 1.074-1.111 mil bbls, while stocks for the week are estimated between 24.331-25.00 mil bbls. On average, both figures would be up from those seen last week.
- According to court documents filed this week, the US EPA intends to issue a final decision on small refinery exemptions for a pair of small refiners, HF Sinclair Corp. and Delek US Holdings Inc., no later than Monday, August 3rd. The two are part of a much larger group of companies that have been awaiting decisions from the EPA, claiming the exemptions are a must to keep operations profitable amid the high cost of blending renewable fuels. There was no comment regarding when decisions on other cases might be made.
- Russia's Defense Ministry said in a statement posted to Telegram overnight last night that it had struck two dry cargo vessels transiting east of Odessa, claiming the ships were carrying weapons and military equipment. Additional drone strikes in the region were also reported, indicating shipping risks in the region still remain highly elevated.
- Staying on the topic, it was also reported this week that Russian officials were considering arming grain vessels with machine guns and handheld missile launchers in an effort to thwart ongoing drone strikes, with the military and transport authorities allegedly in contact with grain traders and shipowners according to sources familiar with the situation.
- Brazilian soy lobby Abiove said this week that the country's soybean exports in 2026 were likely ot reach 115.4 MMTs, which is up more than 1% from an estimate made in June; the group also said it sees crush for the year at 63.3 MMTs, up from a previous forecast of 63.0 MMTs. As a result, stocks were seen falling to 6.58 MMTs, which while also down from previous estimates, would still be the largest figure since 2019.
- According to data from the Rosario Board of Trade, Argentina exported a record amount of grains and ag products through its ports during the first half of 2026, with totals up some 9% from the same period in 2025 and up nearly 20% from the recent five-year average; of the total, grain shipments were seen at 35.8 MMTs, up nearly 20% from last year and up 34% from average. Of note, the group mentioned that the total also includes products from Bolivia, Paraguay and Uruguay that were exported through Argy port terminals.
EXPORT NEWS:
- N/A
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
