Morning Markets: Corn: -7.50 old & -8.25 new.
Beans: -9 old & -10.25 new. Wheat: -1.75.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Ag markets are lower coming out of the weekend this morning to start what will be a shortened week of trade for the Fourth of July holiday, with the grain markets back testing the lower end of the recent trading range seen over the last couple weeks and the soy complex mostly lower also but still a ways off last week's lows. We talked about it last week, but with tomorrow's reports and more uncertainty coming out of the Middle East over the weekend, we assume today and the first part of the day tomorrow will be a period of position adjustment, with nobody wanting to get caught the wrong way on a surprise USDA number. Then, beyond tomorrow morning, it’s our assumption that Midwest weather gains in market importance in the weeks ahead, with the critical pollination window for corn now fast approaching. The corn market to start Monday morning is trading 7-8 cents lower, the soybean market is trading 6-9 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents lower.
Crude Oil is up $0.93 at $70.16
US Dollar is down at $101.26
Dow futures are up 303 points at 52,512
WEATHER:
- Following what was another wet weekend across much of the southern and south-central parts of the Corn Belt, and also through the northwest, the models see a notably different outlook in store for this week and into mid-month, as the low pressure seen driving a lot of the Midwest weather pattern the last 10 days or so is replaced by ridging that will allow for warmer and drier conditions to impact a lot of the region into mid-July.
- This morning's EU model run, which continues to be the more accurate of the two, sees ridge-riding storm systems providing anywhere from 1-3" of rainfall generally speaking to parts of the Dakotas/MN/IA/WI the next five days, but areas south and east of here see little to no precip during the same period while daytime highs routinely reach into the mid/upper 90's.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- Friday afternoon' weekly CFTC update showed managed money traders in the week ending June 23rd were sellers of 23,264 contracts of corn (-69,691), sellers of 16,139 contracts of soybeans (36,679), and sellers of 1,674 contracts of Chicago wheat (-71,206); in the soy products, funds sold 8,850 contracts of meal (+8,601) and sold 19,325 contracts of oil (+103,589).
- Traders, according to a Reuters survey of analysts, see tomorrow's quarterly stocks update showing US June 1 corn stocks at 5.408 bil bu vs 4.643 bil last year, June 1 soybean stocks at 1.046 bil bu vs 1.008 bil last year, and June 1 wheat stocks at 934 mil bu vs 855 mil last year. For planted acreage, traders see US corn acres at 94.992 million vs 95.338 million in March, soybean acres at 85.369 million vs 84.70 in March, and all wheat acres at 32.422 million vs 32.410 in March.
- Along with the US crop data expected tomorrow, StatsCan is also expected to release updated quarterly acreage estimates also. Traders, according to Bloomberg, see the report showing all wheat area at 26.6 million acres vs 26.7 million in March and 27.0 million last year, while canola acres are seen at 22.6 million vs 21.8 million in March and 21.6 million last year. The report will be out at 7:30am eastern time tomorrow morning.
- Data from price reporting agency Argus shows fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have begun to rebound since the US and Iran reached an interim peace agreement almost two weeks ago. The data shows around 640,000 MTs of sulfur have exited since the Strait June 15th, which compares to around just 80,000 tons during the course of the previous 3.5 months. Urea shipments were also seen similarly rebounding, with data showing some 427,000 tons shipped in recent weeks vs 275,000 tons shipped during the war.
- Russian authorities said over the weekend that wheat harvest has started in some major producing regions, with the government ensuring that fuel supplies would be adequate for the season despite ongoing Ukrainian attacks on major refineries. Private analyst SovEcon said early barley yield results were promising, with crops in Rostov up some 75% from last year, Krasnodar up some 22%, and Stavropol up some 10%. More widespread harvest is likely to begin across the country over the next couple weeks.
- On Friday last week, President Trump said that several European countries were considering a digital services tax aimed at large American tech companies and warned that any country who moved forward with such a tax would face steep tariffs of up to 100% on goods being exported to the US. The development isn't necessarily a direct ag risk, but highlights ongoing differences between the Trump and the bloc that could lead to further escalation in the future.
EXPORT NEWS:
- Private exporters reported sales of 136,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2026/2027 marketing year.
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
