Morning Markets: Corn: -4.25 old & -4.75 new.
Beans: -8.25 old & -6.75 new. Wheat: -1.25.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Mixed/mostly lower has been the theme so far to get Thursday ag trade started in Chicago, with corn and beans leading the way lower, the wheat market being along for the ride, and the products mixed on additional strength in world energy values. Developments in the Middle East the last 48 hours or so are new, but there isn't really anything fresh specific to that front this morning and news in general has been slow through the overnight hours. With that being the case, we imagine position adjusting ahead of tomorrow's WASDE update will be a common theme throughout the day today, while traders will also continue to have a sizeable amount of attention on new forecast model runs as they become available. Corn futures to start Thursday are trading 4-5 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 3-6 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents lower.
Crude Oil is up $0.43 at $73.95
US Dollar is even at $100.99
Dow futures are up 21 points at 52,645
WEATHER:
- Will continue to stay upfront with our forecast discussion, as notable run-to-run changes within the models and differences between the two in general have kept confidence in any forecast beyond the next couple days low. What is certain is that a sizeable ridge of high pressure builds across the northwest and north-central part of the US beyond the weekend and into next week that will likely crank up the heat and limit rainfall for a lot of the country's midsection.
- However, less certain is exactly where this ridge sets up, how long it lingers for, and how expansive it becomes over the next week to ten days. Ridge-riding thunderstorms will be able to work over the top of the ridge and come crashing down on its eastern side, which is why the exact location is so important and has been so closely monitored. Otherwise, the eastern US says precip potential from convective thunderstorm activity, but these system will be extremely difficult to predict in terms of rainfall. Generally speaking though, moisture shifts south and east beyond Friday, leaving much of the Corn Belt in a drier pattern next week as ridge-riders stay too far north.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- The CME Group's delivery slate was lighter this morning, with just 74 contracts of rough rice assigned, along with 4 contracts of KC wheat, 1 contract of corn, and 1 contract of oats.
- Cash sources indicate Chinese buyers bought possibly five more US soybean cargoes on Wednesday, which will likely have traders again watching the daily sales wire this morning for signs of confirmation. Yesterday's sales announcement of nearly 500,000 tons was the largest purchase made by China since November of last year, with all the volume presumably done by state grain buyer COFCO.
- The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina this week raised their estimate of the country's new crop wheat production forecast 0.5 MMTs to 20.5 MMTs, citing larger planted area and abundant June rains, as well as a recent fall in urea prices. For comparison, the USDA has new crop Argy wheat production pegged at 21.0 MMTs.
- In the financial world, yesterday's FOMC minutes had a decidedly hawkish lean, with multiple officials indicating a case for raising the federal funds rate, while several others questioned whether current monetary policy was restrictive enough. Notably, nearly all officials also mentioned that the removal of forward guidance from the minutes was likely a positive, which is a move market participants had been weary of in recent days.
- Possibly aiding in the strength seen in bean oil this week is news that the European Parliament blocked legislation aimed at stripping the renewable status from soy-based biofuels, which would have phased out their contribution to the bloc's renewable energy targets by 2030. EU lawmakers argued the proposal doesn't consider that EU-grown soy doesn't drive deforestation, and also added that such a move would clash with plans to make the bloc more protein-independent.
EXPORT NEWS:
- 136,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2026/2027 marketing year
- 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2026/2027 marketing year
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
