Morning Markets: Corn: -0.25.
Beans: +6.50. Wheat: -3.75.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Happy Friday. Ag markets are seeing quieter trade to start the last trading day of the week this morning, with the grain markets a little in the red and the soy complex a little in the green on noticeably lower volume than has been seen in previous overnight sessions this week. From a chart standpoint, beans have so far held the lows scored during yesterday's lashing which is a positive, but whether this remains the case throughout the day and into this afternoon's close will be one of the bigger keys going into next week. If yes, we would expect more choppy/sideways trade generally in the same range seen most of this week, with new China demand or something similar likely needed to score new highs; but if no and $11 doesn't hold, we find it likely that Jan futures make at least some sort of effort at filling the gap left from the China announcement at the beginning of last week. Without cash confirmation and with futures prices at their highest levels in more than year, increased volatility and wide price swings should continue to be expected. Corn futures to start Friday morning are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 3-6 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 3-4 cents lower. Products are quietly higher, soybean meal is up around $1/ton and soybean oil is up 10-20 points. Outside markets are quietly mixed, crude oil futures are up 40-50 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 120 points and the US$ index is down 5 points; the S&P500 is down 20 points, and the NASDAQ is down 120 points also.
Crude Oil is up $0.64 at $60.07
US Dollar is down at $99.67
Global Equities: Japan -0.4%, China -0.9%, and Europe -0.4%
Dow futures are down 116 points at 46,912
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn -0.4% and Wheat -0.5%
WEATHER:
- Satellite data from overnight shows light rains fell across southern WI/northern IL and into MI/IN, but the bulk of the heavier precip stayed further to the north into Canada. Models show additional light precip possible for the eastern part of the Midwest through the weekend, but totals will be light and coverage will be spotty for the most part. The better organized system will then be Saturday night into Sunday, and this is the one that contains the snow flurry potential for parts of IA/IL/WI/MI as temperatures will begin sharply falling through the evening on Saturday.
- Like we talked about yesterday though, once these weekend systems work their way out of the area to the northeast, models see a drier period then emerging through the week again next week for the Midwest, with temperatures continuing to run mostly on the warmer side of average and little/no rainfall expected into next weekend. Week two precip maps are wetter than this morning into the back half of November, with the western US staying wet but now most of the central and northern parts of the country also seeing average to above average precip chances.
- Northern Argentina/southern Brazil look to see potentially heavy rainfall beginning later today and running through the weekend, with this moisture then expanding north into the heart of Brazil's growing regions by the end of the weekend and into the first part of next week. Like we've talked about all week, Argentina's growing regions to the south and east will continue to be on the drier side compared to areas further west, but moisture is seen filling back in here by the middle of next week.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- The delivery slate for Friday fell off lighter again according to the CME Group, with just 36 contracts of soybeans assigned overnight and 6 contracts of rough rice.
- The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, in a weekly update, said the Argentine corn planting in the past week advanced just 1% to 36% complete, as seeding seasonally now slows down until towards the end of November. The group added 79% of what had been planted was in G/EX condition. Meanwhile, the group also mentioned soybean planting had started, reporting that 4.4% of the 17.6 million expected hectares had been seeded, which was about 4% behind last year. Lastly, wheat harvest advanced was seen advancing 3.2% on the week to 11.6% complete.
- Chinese customs data for the month of October showed the country's soybean buyers have continued to scoop up supplies at a record pace, with numbers showing imports in the month at 9.48 MMTs, which would be up more than 17% from the same month last year and a new record for the period. Cumulative imports through the first 10 months of 2025 now stand at 95.68 MMTs, which is up some 6.4% from the same period last year. Grain data, as well as country of origin information, will be released later.
- Meanwhile, Brazil's Trade Ministry said on Thursday that soybean exports out of the country totaled 6.728 MMTs in October, which was up nearly 43% from the same month last year as the likely bigger than was thought crop and the ongoing trade war with the US continues to spur good demand, notably from China. Data also showed Brazil corn exports in the month up 1.5% from last year at 6.501 MMTs, while meal exports were down 4% at 2.264 MMTs. Private group ANEC sees November exports possibly reaching 3.77 MMTs for soybeans and 5.57 MMTs for corn.
- The United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said that global food prices in the month of October were down about 1.6% from the month prior, as declines in prices for grains, meat, dairy, and sugar all declined from the month prior. Same group said they global grain production in the 2025/26 season at 2.99 bil tons, which would be up from an October estimate of 2.97 bil tons and would also be a new record. As a result, stocks/use could possibly reach its highest level since 2017/18 at 31.1%.
- Weekly data from FranceAgriMer showed French corn harvest has reached 90% complete as of Monday the 3rd, up 8% from the week prior and ahead of the five-year average pace of 83% through the same week. Soft-wheat planting, meanwhile, was seen at 79% complete, up from 68% last week and ahead of the five-year average pace of 74%.
- With there still being little new on Trump's tariff case in the Supreme Court, the President said on Thursday that if the case doesn't go favorably, his administration would need to find an "alternative game plan." Trump also mentioned that there would be no new tariff announcements while the case was still pending.
EXPORT NEWS:
- N/A
Be safe!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
