Morning Markets: Corn: +1.75 old & +1.50 new.
Beans: -3.50 old & -5 new. Wheat: -5.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Mixed trade has been the overnight theme in the ag markets to get Tuesday started, with the soy complex and wheat futures seeing additional losses on the back of Monday's sharp selloff, while corn futures are trying to recover just a bit and have been quietly higher for most of the evening. Crop conditions came in expectedly lower in yesterday afternoon's update, but the declining numbers don't seem to be matching up with the yield debate that's been ongoing. This, at some point between now and fall, will likely become more of a market factor, but that doesn't happen until crop tours or combines start to provide some sort of actual hard data. For now though, its geopolitics and war that will presumably remain in the driver's seat otherwise. Corn futures to get Tuesday started are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 4-6 cents lower, and Chicago wheat futures are trading 7-9 cents lower.
Crude Oil is down $1.48 at $81.13
US Dollar is down at $101.53
Dow futures are up 500 points at 52,882
WEATHER:
- There continues to be decent model agreement this morning on the coming weather pattern for the Midwest this week, as both the EU and the GFS see rains impacting the northeastern part of the country the next couple days and into the middle of the week, while precip doesn't return to the central US and the Midwest until later this week and into the weekend. Models today see rainfall across the Corn Belt ranging from a half inch to 2" generally speaking between Thursday and the end of the day on Sunday, with some locally heavier amounts possible.
- Temperature forecasts are little changed this morning also, with the models seeing the warmest conditions generally staying to the periphery of the main ag areas, while a pocket of cooler/more normal air keeps much of the Midwest and the broader eastern half of the US closer to average in terms of daytime highs, if not a hair below average.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- At the state level, ND paced the declines in corn conditions, falling 11% in the category, while KS dropped 10%, CO dropped 9% and MI dropped 7%; for the I-states, IL is down 12% from last year at 59% G/EX, IA is 7% behind at 80%, and IN is 2% ahead at 63%. For soybeans, G/EX conditions in KS fell 8%, MI and NE were both down 7%, and all four of KY, ND, OH, and SD were down 6%; for the I-states, IL is 8% behind last year at 57% G/EX, IA is 4% behind at 78%, and IN is 2% ahead at 63%.
- On the progress side, 78% of the corn crop was reported silking, which compares to 73% last year and the five-year average of 74%, while 25% of the crop has reached dough stage; this compares to 24% last year and 22% on average. For soybeans, 80% of the crop is blooming compared to 74% both last year and on average, and 47% of the crop is setting pods, which compares to 39% both last year and on average.
- The European Union's crop monitoring body MARS on Monday lowered most all of it's 2026 harvest forecasts, citing damage from hot and dry weather conditions while also warning that further cuts were likely. The group said they now see soft wheat yields in the bloc at just 5.88 tons/hectare, which would be down 7% from last year, while corn yields were lowered to 6.93 tons/hectare and rapeseed yields were lowered to 3.14 tons/hectare.
- President Trump said Monday that the US was holding constructive conversations with Iran and that there was a "good chance" of reaching an agreement, though Tehran has continued to deny any such talks are happening and has said that the only communication between the two sides is happening via mediators. Additional military action is still seemingly on the table according to Trump officials, but the administration seems to be pushing for sanctions and economic pressure as an alternative to additional bombing. Crude oil futures this morning are down $1-2/bbl.
- According to weekly data from South American ag consultancy AgRural, safrinha corn harvest in Brazil has reached 60% complete as of last Thursday, which compares with 68% as of the same week a year ago. The group said in a comment that ongoing wet weather in some areas had continued to slow harvest pace, while other areas that had been drier are virtually done with harvest.
- Preliminary open interest data from Monday shows much of the selling seen throughout the day was related to long liquidation - corn open interest was down some 14,000 contracts, soybeans were down some 30,000 contracts, and meal and oil were both down nearly 9,000 contracts a piece.
EXPORT NEWS:
- Private exporters reported sales of 197,272 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2026/2027 marketing year.
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
