Morning Markets: Corn: -2.
Beans: -1.25. Wheat: -0.75.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Happy Friday. Outside markets have seen some activity overnight, with crude oil futures up $2.00+/bbl and the NASDAQ down some 700 points, but grain and soy trade has been quiet again, with small trading ranges and minimal volume. Ag traders are looking for a new story to place bets on and there simply just hasn't been much in the way of developments since the last crop report to allow for such a situation to develop. Yield adjustments by the USDA in November would fit the bill, and so would new grain demand from the Chinese, but at this point, it remains to be seen whether either one of those situations will occur. In the meantime, there's potential for another big crop to come out of South America in a few months and there's a pair of wars that remain ongoing that likely stay front and center for traders into the New Year. Corn futures to start Friday morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading either side of unchanged.
Trivia: What is the name of the Scooby-Doo gang’s van? (answer below)
Crude Oil is up $1.86 at $103.86
US Dollar is down at $101.80
Dow futures are down 69 points at 52,443
WEATHER:
- Rainfall chances across the western Corn Belt look to increase over the next 48 hours into the weekend, though the moisture stays confined largely to areas west of the Mississippi into the first part of next week. A potent low pressure system that we've discussed all week then looks to work through the mid-section of the country Tues/Weds/Thurs next week, dumping anywhere from 1-4" on the bulk of the Midwest and mid-south. Not a lot of follow up moisture is expected then after, with forecasts showing a drier outlook then into the middle/back half of the month.
- South American weather into next week will likely remain similar to this week, with frontal boundaries expected to continue pushing moisture from the south to the north, keeping the same overall pattern in place. We talked about it earlier this week, but it will be important that monsoonal flow from the north picks up into the end of the year, as frontal rains won't sustain crop development all the way through. For Argentina, concern remains minimal, with normal rains expected to continue.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- Weekly crop data out of Argentina this week from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange showed corn planting in the country has reached 47.3% complete, up from 39.8% last week and still well above both last year and average. Soybean planting progress was seen at 2.3% complete in the first estimate of the year, which is up a little more than 1% from the same date a year ago. Wheat harvest is seen at 6.7% on the week, also slightly ahead of last year.
- Private Black Sea analyst SovEcon said this week the Russian farmers had planted roughly 14.9 million hectares of winter grains as of October 23rd, down just 1% from the same time a year ago. Just two weeks ago, pace was said to be some 10% behind last year, indicating good progress has been made in the last several days driven by an increase in harvest activity of the previous crop in some southern regions.
- Weekly drought monitor data released on Thursday showed 21% of US corn area in some form of drought, up from 20% last week but still behind the 30% seen on the same day a year ago. Soybean area is 28% in drought condition, also up 1% from a week ago but behind the 34% last year.
- Weekly USDA data showed barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending October 24th totaled 536k tons, up 3% on the week; corn shipments were seen at 104k tons, down 26%, and soybean shipments were seen at 431k tons, up 13%. STL barge freight rates were quoted at $22.50/short ton, down $1.12 from the week prior.
- There continues to be little changed to end the week in either the Middle East or the Black Sea region, with US-led diplomatic efforts seemingly on hold until after the midterms next week. There are still reports of progress on both fronts, but the situation on the ground in both regions remain little changed from previous days this week. Notably, there has still been no date set for trilateral talks with Russia and Ukraine, and Trump's threat that attacks would resume on Iran potentially following the election still linger.
EXPORT NEWS:
- 165,150 metric tons of soybeans received in the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2026/2027 marketing year
- 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2026/2027 marketing year
Answer: The Mystery Machine.
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
