Morning Markets: Corn: +1.75 old & new.
Beans: +5.25 old & new. Wheat: -5.
We will hold our Annual Crop Tour Meetings Thursday, August 27th
Lincoln ~ Knights of Columbus ~ 8 am for Breakfast!
Monticello ~ Monticello Community Building ~ 12 pm for Lunch!
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Ag trade to start the new week has been mixed and generally quiet overnight, with corn and soybean futures higher while the wheat market sags on largely the same themes that were present going into the weekend last week. While weather and crop tours across the Midwest are going to continue to attract a lot of attention in the coming weeks, the big question on the geopolitical front now is when does vessel traffic begin to normalize in the Black Sea and surrounding areas and what kind of export capacity from the region has been lost. This is not a short-term market story, and unfortunately is going to likely have price influence well into the fall and winter. Corn futures to get Monday morning started are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 5-6 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 3-6 cents lower.
Crude Oil is up $0.33 at $82.73
US Dollar is down at $99.41
Dow futures are down 203 points at 53,604
WEATHER:
- Much of the central Corn Belt continued to get pounded with wet weather and storms over the weekend, with seven-day rainfall totals as of Sunday now seen in the 8-12" ballpark across wide swaths of IL, IN and OH. Totals have been less further to the west, but there's a corridor from NE to WV that has seen ample moisture over the last week amid a high pressure ridge over the southern US that has regularly pushed storm systems into the mid-section of the country.
- For this week, models have things calming down ever so slightly across the Midwest, though larger troughing in the northeast and into Canada is going to still keep additional moisture present for much of the eastern US. This morning's EU model run has precip over the next seven days ranging from a half inch to an inch or so across a lot of the region's central and western areas, while totals look to be slightly heavier further to the east and up the East Coast.
- The temperature pattern for this week looks much the same as last, as the rains and cloudy weather keep much of the Midwest on the cooler side of normal, while the west and southwest stay hot. The only real area of heat concern remains in the far northwestern Corn Belt, where moisture has been the most absent all season and where rains again largely missed going back to last week.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- The CME Group for Monday morning assigned another 120 contracts of soybeans for delivery, along with 12 contracts of soybean meal and 1 contract of oil.
- Friday afternoon's Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC showed managed money traders in the week ending August 11th were sellers of 15,176 contracts of corn (+166,770), sellers of 24,104 contracts of soybeans (+101,362) and sellers of 7,616 contracts of Chicago wheat (-31,401); in the soy products, funds were sellers of 5,876 contracts of meal (+71,576) and buyers of 239 contracts of oil (+80,922).
- NOPA will be out later today with monthly soybean crush figures for the month of July. Traders see the group pegging US crush in the month at 221.509 mil bu, which would be a four-month high and up more than 3% from the June figure. Soybean oil stocks as of the end of the month are seen at 1.454 bil lbs, which would be down 3% from the June figure and the tightest reading since October of 2025.
- China's Sinograin has another reserve soybean auction scheduled for this week, offering 360k tons of reserve supplies for sale on Wednesday. The sale marks the fourth in as many weeks, as buyers continue to clear space for incoming US shipments that have been purchased as part of the trade agreement reached in May.
- Along similar lines to headlines seen last week, private Russian consultancy IKAR said in a statement that the country's wheat exports in the month of August were likely to fall more than 50% from the same month last year, estimating shipments at less than two million tons as disruptions from the war with Ukraine continue to hamper logistics. The group added, however, that export potential for the season was theoretically still seen at 44.5 MMTs, which matches an estimate made in July.
- On top of the grain supply issues in the Black Sea, market analysts in Europe over the weekend said the French corn crop could fall to less than half of what it was last year, which would drop overall European production to its lowest level in some 20 years. The EU Commission in July estimated corn production in the bloc at 51.9 MMTs, but officials now say this number could fall below 50.0 as weather has yet to substantially improve. Private groups see French production falling below seven million tons, which would be its lowest figure since the 1970's.
- On the other side of the world, the Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina said late last week the country's corn exports during the month of July reached a record 5.14 MMTs, topping the previous high-water mark set last April even despite wet weather causing harvest delays and logistics issues throughout a lot of the season. The group also raised its total export forecast for the 2025/26 season by 2.5 MMTs to 70.5 MMTs.
EXPORT NEWS:
- N/A
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
