Morning Markets: Corn: -0.25 old & 0.0 new.
Beans: +1.75 old & +1.25 new. Wheat: -1.50.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Ag markets are seeing tepid follow through buying for the most part this morning following yesterday's sharply higher start to the week, with the appearance of daily soy flashes this morning at 8am central time to be one of the more watched for happenings throughout the day today. We've said it many times in the last several months, but Chinese demand remains the one wild card that can very easily outweigh crop production prospects in terms of moving the markets, even as we reach the heart of the growing season in the Midwest. The supply side of the market will continue to get attention the next eight weeks as the growing season progresses, but yesterday's price action clearly illustrates where traders have most of their focus.
Corn futures to get Tuesday started are trading around 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 3-5 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents higher.
Crude Oil is UP $0.46 at $69.01
US Dollar is UP at $100.86
Dow futures are UP points at 53,055
WEATHER:
- Not a lot new on the weather front this morning, with models in generally good agreement on temperatures staying a little more on the mild side the next few days while heat stays to the west, but having little to no agreement on the precipitation side into the end of the week this week. The GFS run this morning, which has been the less accurate of the two through most of summer, has good rains of 1-2" covering parts of NE and IA in the west and also central IL and IN in the east; the EU, though, sees just limited rains of maybe up to a half inch in the west and also sees precipitation in the east staying further south into more of KY/TN.
- Like a lot of the last 10-15 days, the convective nature of the storm systems expected around the lingering high pressure ridge will be extremely difficult for the models to pinpoint in terms of accuracy and timing, which means precipitation forecasts through the end of the week and into next week will likely remain frustrating and volatile on a day-to-day basis
OTHER HEADLINES:
- Though slowing a bit, the CME Group for Tuesday assigned another 26 contracts of soybeans for delivery overnight, as well as 29 contracts of rough rice, 3 contracts of bean oil, 9 contracts of corn, 1 contract of KC wheat, and 3 contracts of Chicago wheat.
- Monday afternoon's weekly crop progress update showed no change in corn conditions (67% G/EX) or winter wheat conditions (26% G/EX) this week, while soybean conditions fell 1% to 64% G/EX. For corn, 16% of the crop is seen silking and 3% of the crop is in the dough stage, and for soybeans, 34% of the crop is blooming and 9% of the crop is setting pods. Winter wheat harvest advanced 11% on the week to 59% complete.
- At the state level for corn, G/EX conditions fell 10% on the week in NC, fell 7% in OH and fell 5% in ND; only gains of note were 3% increases in both MO and SD. For soybeans, G/EX conditions in MI and ND were each down 10% on the week, while NC fell 9% and MS and KY each fell 7%; LA improved 6% on the week, while MO was up 4% and all IL, SD and TN were up 3%.
- Delayed CFTC Commitment of Traders data released Monday afternoon for the week ending June 30th showed managed money traders in the week were buyers of 23,481 contracts of corn (-46,209), sellers of 5,478 contracts of soybeans (+31,200) and buyers of 2,176 contracts of Chicago wheat (-69,030); in the products, funds were sellers of 6,761 contracts of meal (+1,841) and were sellers of 11,357 contracts of oil (+92,232).
- Safrinha corn harvest continues to chug along in South America, with private group AgRural, as well as state agency CONAB, both seeing progress at around 30% complete as of late last week, which compares to 28% last year and the five-year average of roughly 35%. Forecasters say seasonal dryness the next ten days to allow even more progress to be made, with rains mostly confined to areas in the country's south.
- Though not necessarily a market mover, President Trump via his Truth Social platform on Monday said that Walmart - "one of the biggest, best, and smartest retailers in America" - would be lowering the price of ground beef, along with other products, by some 15% at Trump's request to celebrate the USA's 250th birthday. Its unclear whether this is a temporary move or how long the discounts are expected to be in place for.
- Despite headlines out of the region seeing a notable decline the last ten days, tensions in/around the Strait of Hormuz remain heightened, with sources on Monday reporting that a Qatari ship loaded with LNG (liquified natural gas) had been struck by a projectile as it was exiting the passage. The event highlights ongoing maritime risks in the region and has WTI crude oil futures up some 50 cents to a dollar this morning.
EXPORT NEWS:
- N/A
Be careful!
Noah Richardson
Topflight Grain Seymour
202 N Main Street, Seymour IL 61875
nrichardson@tfgrain.com
www.topflightgrain.com
