Morning Markets: Corn: -4.25. Beans: +0.50. Wheat: +1.25.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. CBOT ag markets are mostly lower coming out of the weekend, as there has been little progress reported out of trade meetings between the US and China in Spain to start Monday, and as some traders feel Friday's rally may have been a bit over done based on the relatively bearish leaning numbers that were printed by the USDA. Aside from this, we expect harvest-related hedge selling pressure to pick up throughout the week this week, with harvest likely to really start rolling across the Midwest the next 5-10 days. Keep in mind that the market is aware of the current supply situation and likely record US crops, with it being all about demand and how quickly that glut of supply can be used up from here. Corn futures to start Monday morning are trading 4-5 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 4-6 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading near unchanged. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down around $3/ton and soybean oil is up 30-40 points. Outside markets are mixed/mostly higher to start the week - crude oil futures are up 20-30 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 100 points, and the US$ index is down 20 points; the S&P500 is is up 10 points and the NASDAQ is up 30 points.
Crude Oil is up $0.22 at $62.91
US Dollar is down at $97.322
Global Equities: Japan +0.4%, China +0.2%, and Europe +1.1%
Dow futures are up 100 points at 45,954
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn +0.1% and Wheat +0.4%
WEATHER:
- Weekend weather across the Midwest saw good shower activity in the west and northwest through the Dakotas and NE, while spotty rains were also seen through parts of MN and WI and then down into IN as line of storms worked south and east. The central Corn Belt though continue to see dry conditions, with there again being little to no precip seen through IA/IL/MO and then on south.
- Forecasts for this week expect this pattern to largely continue, as the EU's precip outlook for the week this morning shows an additional 1-3" of rainfall between now and Saturday morning through the Dakotas/MN/IA/NE. These rains to look to stay west of the Mississippi though, with areas further to the east still not expected to see much of any precip through the week this week. While this will allow for good early harvest progress to be made, the rapid drying of crops will likely lead to some sort of yield loss, and field fire risk will be elevated in the short term.
- Extended forecasts are also little changed coming out of the weekend this morning, and continue to show generally warm and dry conditions for most of the Corn Belt and broader Midwest into the end of the month. There is notable model disagreement this morning on the extended range temperature outlook, with the EU seeing a return to cooler temps in the east by the end of the month, while the GFS sees heat lingering; this will need to be monitored this week.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- Friday's September WASDE update showed a surprisingly higher corn acre number, but ending stocks figures for both crops were relatively similar to figures seen last month and the market reaction was one that could be mostly be described as 'sell the rumor, buy the fact'.
- Also out Friday was weekly CFTC Commitment of Traders report, which showed that in the week ending September 9th, managed money traders were sellers of 8,442 contracts of corn (now net-short 99,929), sellers of 26,678 contracts of soybeans (net-short 14,714), and were sellers of 10,451 contracts of Chicago wheat (net-short 92,394). In the soy products, funds were buyers of 3,736 contracts of meal (net-short 85,785) and sellers of 12,465 contracts of oil (net-long 3,662).
- NOPA (the National Oilseed Processors Association) is expected to release updated monthly soybean crush data on Monday at 11am central time for the month of August; traders see the report showing US crush in the month at 182.857 million bu, which would be down 6.6% from July but up nearly 16% from August of last year; it would also be a new August record. The report is also expected to show soybean oil stocks as of the end of the month at 1.298 bil lbs, down 6% from July.
- The USDA said last week that its new export sales reporting system is expected to be rolled out on October 23rd, with the weekly report on October 30th to be the first that's done using the upgraded program. Notably, the last time the USDA tried to upgrade its export reporting system in 2022, the changes failed and caused weekly sales reports to be delayed for three weeks.
- Sources familiar with the matter said late last week that Canadian officials had constructive talks with their Chinese counterparts during recent trade meetings over new duties from Beijing on Canadian canola, but no deal had been struck to this point that would eliminate the measures. The statement added that the talks had paved the way for further conservation between the two sides, but no additional meetings had been scheduled as of this writing.
- Ukraine's ag ministry said late last week that the country's grain and legume exports in the current marketing year that began July 1 have totaled just 5.2 MMTs through Friday, which compares to 8.6 MMTs through a similar day last year. Wheat exports are down 24% from last year at 3.55 MMTs, while corn exports are down 40% from last year at just 692k MTs.
- Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Sunday that an agricultural trade delegation had departed for the US and was scheduled to be there for two weeks, from September 14th-27th. Sources familiar said members would first be in Washington to sign letters of intent to purchase certain ag products, and then would break up into three groups to visit states that produce corn, soybeans, wheat and beef.
- A monthly report from China's ag ministry over the weekend echoed USDA opinions on the country's 2024/25 corn imports from last week, saying they see this figure now reaching just 3 MMTs for the year, which matches the USDA and is down from a previous estimate of 7 MMTs in August. The ministry, meanwhile, did not make any updates to 2025/26 export estimates, and still sees this figure at 7 MMTs.
EXPORT NEWS:
- Private exporters reported sales of 148,971 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2025/2026 marketing year.
Be safe!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
