Morning Markets: Corn: +1.25 old & +1 new.
Beans: +5.25 old & +4.75 new. Wheat: +7.25
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. WASDE day is finally here and ag futures markets have been higher so far in the overnight hour in anticipation of one of the bigger data days we've seen in several weeks since before the holidays. While the crop situation in South America will continue to be the driver of longer term price direction, this will likely take a temporary back seat today to the plethora of USDA data that is expected at 11am central time this morning. Corn futures are trading 1-2 cents higher to start the day, soybean futures are trading 4-5 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 5-6 cents higher.
Crude Oil is dowm $0.22 at $58.90
US Dollar is down at $98.69
Dow futures are down 345 points at 49,381
WEATHER:
- A majority of the Midwest and upper northeastern part of the country saw varying degrees of rain/snow/ice over the weekend, though the heaviest precip amounts continued to favor northern areas around the Great Lakes in parts of MN/WI/MI and then on off into the upper northeast. Models for this week see this area remaining active, with several systems expected to continue impacting the eastern half of the country through the week this week and into next weekend. Temperatures look to be warm through Tuesday in the central US, but then cool off the back half of the week.
- Rains were generally as expected across South America over the weekend, with the bulk of Argentina's growing areas in/around Buenos Aires and Cordoba generally staying dry, while the eastern third of Brazil was also expectedly dry. Mato Grosso and other areas to the west saw light/scattered rains, while the heavier precip impact areas of northern Argentina and southern Brazil around Paraguay. Models this morning show light rain potential for Argentina tonight/tomorrow but then dry the rest of the week, while rains likely improve through central and south-central Brazil by the back half of the week.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- Deliveries for Monday morning from the CME Group include 33 contracts of soybeans, 2 contracts of soybean meal, and 39 contracts of rough rice.
- For today's January WASDE update, traders see corn ending stocks coming in at 1.986 bil bu, which would be down from 2.029 bil last month, while soybean ending stocks are seen at 294 mil bu, up slightly from 290 mil last month. At the world level, corn stocks are seen increasing slightly to 280 MMTs, and soybean stocks are also seen increasing slightly to 123.5 MMTs. On production, corn yield is seen at 184.0 bu acre vs 186 last month, which with 90 mil harvested acres would produce a crop of 16.554 bil bu; soybean yield is seen at 52.7, with harvested area at 80.3 mil acres and a crop of 4.233 bil bu.
- Quarterly stocks data will also be out this morning; December 1 corn stocks are seen at 12.981 bil bu vs 12.075 a year ago, soybean stocks are seen at 3.259 bil bu vs 3.100 last year, and wheat stocks are seen at 1.637 bil bu vs 1.573 last year.
- Friday afternoon, the CFTC released commitment of traders data for the week ending January 6th, which showed fund traders were buyers of 7,157 contracts of corn in the week (-16,426), sellers of 26,845 contracts of soybeans (+57,717) and sellers of 12,538 contracts of Chicago wheat (-107,165); in the soy products, funds were sellers of 10,514 contracts of meal (-20,744) and buyers of 746 contracts of soybean oil (-66,568).
- Cash sources on Friday indicated that China's state stockpiler Sinograin had purchased at least another 10 cargoes of soybeans from the US for shipment in April and May. The sources said around 8 of the cargoes were booked from the US Gulf, with the remainder off the PNW. China's exact purchase amount as it pertains to the 12 MMT target have been a bit convoluted of late, but traders think the total is north of 10 MMTs and is likely now approaching the 12 MMT mark that was expected by the end of February. The news also comes ahead of China's next reserve auction, which is scheduled for tomorrow, the 13th.
- Other news out of China to start the week includes a monthly crop update from the country's ag ministry, which showed another increase in 2025/26 corn output to a record 301.24 MMTs, up more than 2% from last year and more than a million tons higher than their December estimate. The ministry also slightly raised soybean production to 20.91 MMTs, which is up a little more than 1% from last year.
- Stakeholder meetings regarding the 45Z clean fuels tax credit that are expected to take place over the course of several days this week are scheduled as a series of 30-60 minute individual listening sessions, as opposed to one single hearing, signaling that the OMB is in information gathering mode still and is not yet to the point of issuing final rules or guidance. The meetings are scheduled for the 13th-16th, with an additional day on January 20th.
- President Trump said on Sunday that he was considering blocking Exxon Mobil from investing in Venezuela after the group's CEO called the country "uninvestable" during meetings at the White House last week. Though the situation is ongoing, pundits argue that Big Oil has injected a dose of realism into Trump's plan to overhaul the country's aging and inefficient refinery industry by pumping billions of private dollars into it.
EXPORT NEWS:
N/A
Noah Richardson
Topflight Grain Seymour
202 N Main Street, Seymour IL 61875
nrichardson@tfgrain.com
www.topflightgrain.com
