Morning Markets: Corn: +4 old & new.
Beans: +0.50 old & +1.25 new. Wheat: +20.50.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Overnight ag trade was quiet for much of the evening last night but turned higher around 3am central time on new headlines out of the Black Sea region indicating new Russian attacks on the port system in the greater Odessa region, which handles nearly all of Ukraine’s seaborn grain exports. The news has wheat futures as the obvious upside leader this morning, but the rest of the space is higher also on spillover buying and marginal strength in the outside markets amid what seems to largely be a recycling of headlines seen over the last 24 hours. Corn futures to start mid-week trade on Wednesday are 3-4 cents higher, soybean futures are 1-3 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is 15-18 cents higher.
Crude Oil is up $0.90 at $80.24
US Dollar is down at $100.86
Dow futures are up 71 points at 52,604
WEATHER:
- Again little new to talk about on the weather front this morning, with high pressure across the central US continuing to dominate the pattern and keeping most of the country's midsection on the warmer and drier side of normal through the rest of the week this week and into the weekend. However, overnight model runs still show better precip returning to the eastern half of the US next week as the ridge retrogrades and shifts back west, while any sort of extreme heat generally subsides by the middle of next week.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- The final day of July deliveries, according to the CME Group, included another 129 contracts of rough rice, 4 contracts of soybean oil, 13 contracts of corn, 5 contracts of KC wheat, 1 contract of soybeans, and 19 contracts of Chicago wheat.
- This morning's weekly ethanol update from the EIA is expected to show average daily production in the US in the week ending July 10th between 1.050-1.105 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are estimated between 23.00-24.050 mil bbls.
- NOPA is set to release monthly US soybean crush data for the month of June later this morning. Traders see the report showing soybean crush in the month at 203.989 mil bu, which would be down 2% from May but still up 10% from June of last year. The group also sees soybean oil stocks as of the end of the month at 1.653 bil lbs, which would be a new six-month low and down some 5% from last month.
- Several private consultancies in Russia and the Black Sea region have trimmed their Russian wheat export forecast for the month of July following restrictions put in place this week in the Sea of Azov, seeing the total now closer to just 2 million tons, which would be down anywhere from 10-20% from previous estimates. There has still been no formal shipping banned announced, but vessels and carriers are self-restricting activity in the area based on current conditions.
- The French Farm Ministry on Tuesday said they see the country's soft wheat production in 2026 coming in at 32.0 MMTs, which would be down 4% from last year and down just 2% from the recent five-year average, while barely production was estimated at 11.1 MMTs, down 6% from last year and down 2% from the five-year average. Declines in corn production are expected to see larger declines amid historic heat/drought conditions that have been well-advertised now.
- In the financial world, US consumer prices yesterday were seen falling 0.4% during the month of June, which was the largest monthly decline in more than six years due in large part to falling world energy values. Inflation on an annual basis came in at 3.5%, which while still well-off from the Fed's 2% target, was better than expected and was the first monthly decline since January.
EXPORT NEWS:
- N/A
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
