Morning Markets: Corn: -0.25 old & 0 new.
Beans: +0.75 old & +0.25 new. Wheat: -3.75.
PLEASE JOIN US FOR OUR 2026 FOCUS MEETINGS!!
Tuesday, March 3rd at the Knights of Columbus in Lincoln with breakfast at 8:00am and meeting to follow.
Tuesday, March 3rd at the Monticello Community Building in Monticello with lunch at 12:00pm and meeting to follow.
Topflight Grain is offering Free PL on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free PL on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Mixed trade seen at mid-week this morning to get Wednesday started, as the chop seen on Tuesday has largely spilled over into the overnight and morning hours today. Traders will be watching to see if the daily sales wire cranks back up this morning with China's return from holiday, but we would not be surprised if yesterday's rumors were nothing more than just that - rumors. Otherwise, its likely biofuel and tariff headlines that again steal most of the attention today, with there remaining an abundance of unknowns on those fronts. Corn futures this morning are trading unchanged to a penny higher, soybean futures are trading 1-3 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents lower.
Crude Oil is up $0.56 at $66.19
US Dollar is up at $97.805
Dow futures are up 370 points at 49,174.50
WEATHER:
- Forecast focus across the Midwest this morning continues to be on a likely increase in moisture throughout the eastern half of the US over the next 10-15 days, as models continue to be in good agreement on the southwest jet providing several opportunities at rainfall. Temperatures, while somewhat variable, look to maintain a warmer bias into the middle of March, as 10-15 day outlooks have stayed downright hot again this morning.
- Nothing new again this morning forecast-wise in South America, with models showing another round of rains across Argentina this weekend and into next week, while all but southern Brazil and northeast Argentina to the north continue to see ongoing monsoonal rains into at least the second week of March. The pocket of dryness is a concern, but record yields to the north in some of the heavier production regions likely offsets any potential losses further to the south.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- This morning's weekly ethanol report from the EIA, with data for the week ending February 20th, is expected to show average US daily production in the week between 1.088-1.200 mil bbls, which would be up slightly from the week prior, while stocks in the week are seen between 25.50-26.20 mil bbls, which on average would also be up from last week.
- The USDA's monthly cold storage report, released yesterday afternoon, showed total red meat supplies in freezers at 862.84 million lbs as of January 31st, which is up 3% from the end of December but down 2% from the same month last year. Beef supplies were seen at 434.9 mil lbs, down 4.4% from last year, while pork supplies were seen at 410.4 mil lbs, up a little under 1%.
- Soybean oil saw strength Tuesday in part due to headlines that the Trump administration was planning to return the RFS (renewable fuel standard) to a more straightforward, gallon-based approach when it releases upcoming quotas, pivoting away from the current RIN-credit structure that exists today. The move comes amid ongoing discussions surrounding a half-RIN proposal for imported feedstocks, which now appears to be either delayed or scrapped entirely. Its unclear at this point what impact such a move would have on RIN values.
- According to Reuters, indigenous protestors who invaded a Cargill port facility in Brazil last week and have occupied it since plan to leave the site within the next 48 hours following government concessions the last couple days to revoke a decree that included several Amazonian waterways in the federal government's privatization program.
- Russian wheat export prices are seen holding steady this week around $233/MT FOB, as shipments remain slow due to logistics issues caused by cold weather and as strength in the ruble keeps values elevated. Private analysts also mentioned this week that weather issues that have affected crops in both France and the US could also help to keep prices supported in the short term.
- After reaching a trade agreement with Indonesia in recent weeks, analysts are skeptical that the Asian nation will be able to reach its purchase levels arranged in the deal, indicating that the task of increasing meal purchases, which are pegged at nearly 4 MMTs, falls on a state agency that has been newly tasked with sourcing animal feed. The agreement also has Indonesia taking 3.5 MMTs of US soybeans, which would be more than their entire annual import program over the last several seasons, which has totaled less than 3 MMTs.
- According to Bloomberg, Israel's government is planning to scrap a tax-free quota and raise trade levies to 50% on wheat-feed imported from countries other than the US beginning in April as part of an effort to try and get President Trump to lower his tariffs on exports from the country which currently stand at 15%. Israel imports nearly all the wheat it consumes annually and took some 60% of this from Russia in the previous season.
EXPORT NEWS:
- N/A
Noah Richardson
Topflight Grain Seymour
202 N Main Street, Seymour IL 61875
nrichardson@tfgrain.com
www.topflightgrain.com
