Morning Markets: Corn: +3.50 old & +2.75 new.
Beans: +11.75 old & +11 new. Wheat: +4.75.
Topflight Grain is offering Free PL on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We also are offering Free PL on corn delivered to Pierson based on space availability good thru August 31, 2026.
Grain Marketing Program signups are due by 12/31/25!! Contact your originator with any questions or if interested in signing up!
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Merry Christmas and Happy Friday. CBOT grain and soy markets are called mixed/mostly higher this morning, as strength in some of the outside markets over the holiday (gold, silver, crude oil) based on geopolitical happenings and a friendly technical set-up left from the close on Wednesday has traders thinking we should see a bit of green to start the final day of trade for the week.
Crude Oil is even at $58.35
US Dollar is down at $97.90
Global Equities: Japan +0.0%, China +0.0%, and Europe +0.0%
Dow futures are down 51 points at 48,978
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn +0.0% and Wheat +0.0%
WEATHER:
- Aside from ongoing regular/heavy precip in the western US, weather focus going into the weekend will be on a storm system currently over the Great Lakes area that is expected to work south and east through the day today and into tonight, before exiting the East Coast sometime Saturday morning. Models are then seeing another slower moving low pressure system this morning working through more the central Midwest Sunday into Monday, but there is disagreement on exactly where the rain/snow line will be, which will need monitoring through the weekend.
- Weekend weather across South America looks to be a little on the stressful side for crop areas in both Brazil and Argentina, as rains look to be limited to areas mostly north of Argentina's main growing zones and also south of Brazil's, while temperatures on both areas are seen increasing to above normal levels. There is not immediate crop concern in Brazil as ten day forecast maps show rains returning and also show heat moderating, but there are no signs of rains returning for southern Argentina through the first week of January, which will need monitoring.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- Ag-specific news the last 48 hours has been expectedly slow, with the only headlines of note from over the holiday coming out of Russia/Ukraine. News outlets are reporting overnight that at President Putin's direction, a phone call was held between US and Russian officials, with it being agreed by both sides that dialogue would continue. Ukrainian President Zelensky also mentioned that he and Trump would be meeting soon to discuss the situation.
- Volume data from Wednesday's session shows just over 160,000 corn contracts traded, while less than 150,000 contracts of soybeans were traded; most assume today's session will, at best, feature similar numbers, if not even smaller ones due to most likely taking advantage of what could be a long, four-day holiday weekend.
- From a technical standpoint, March corn's second consecutive close above the 200-day moving average is a positive development, but those in the bear camp will argue that the low volume environment in which the move has occurred means it's likely to be rejected once the bulk of the crowd returns following next week's New Years holiday. Time will tell whether this is accurate, but should upward momentum continue in the meantime past January 1, we would assume the farmer makes another round of cash sales if futures can scratch out new highs.
- For soybeans, China buying will continue to grab the most headlines in the short term, but its the actual size of the crops coming out of Brazil and Argentina and whether or not the Trump administration/the EPA can finalize biofuel legislation that is pro-soybean farmer anytime in the near future that likely has the most real fundamental impact on price as we get into the first part of 2026. If Brazil has a 180 MMT+ crop, China doesn't buy any more from the US than what's already been priced in, and demand doesn't get a boost from the biofuel sector, we would assume rally potential will be somewhat limited.
EXPORT NEWS:
N/A
Noah Richardson
Topflight Grain Seymour
202 N Main Street, Seymour IL 61875
nrichardson@tfgrain.com
www.topflightgrain.com
