Morning Markets: Corn: +1 old & +1.25 new.
Beans: +3.25 old & +4.75 new. Wheat: -1.50.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Similar to how the week started yesterday, ag markets are quietly mixed for the most part to start Tuesday, with the most notable overnight development being an Asian-led selloff in the tech sector that has produced headwinds for the stock index futures. Otherwise, amid little if anything new from the USDA on crop progress yesterday, trade on day two of the week this week looks to largely resemble that which was had on day one, with neither the bulls or the bears likely able to grab much in the way of control. The bean oil market has the strongest fundamental backing today, but the prospects for increased buying from China continue to linger in the background and could change market dynamics quickly should they start to come to fruition. Corn futures to start Tuesday are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 3-4 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading unchanged to a penny higher.
Crude Oil is down $0.46 at $73.40
US Dollar is up at $101.30
Dow futures are down 234 points at 51,885
WEATHER:
- On the US weather front, models are maybe a tough drier for the rest of the week through the northern part of the Midwest, but are little changed elsewhere as additional storms/rainfall look to continue impacting a lot of the south-central US through the week and into the weekend. Like we talked about yesterday, the convective nature of the storms expected the rest of the week will make exact precip amounts/locations extremely difficult to predict, but generally speaking, the best chances at rain the next five days look to be in an area from western NE/KS east into IN/KY/OH.
- The EU's MARS ag monitoring unit said on Monday that despite crop conditions being mostly favorable at this point, there is considerable concern over spring dryness in some areas and recent hot spells across western growing areas. The group currently sees EU crop yields slightly ahead of five-year averages but below levels seen last year. Meanwhile, Indian meteorologists say monsoon rains should reach the heart of the country this week, improving prospects there after a roughly two week delay.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- CFTC Commitment of Traders data for the week ending June 16th, released yesterday afternoon, showed managed money traders in the week were sellers of another 41,103 contracts of corn (-46,427), sellers of 37,938 contracts of soybeans (+52,818), and were buyers of 9,876 contracts of Chicago wheat (-69,531). In the products, funds sold 35,150 contracts of meal (+17,452) and sold 8,522 contracts of oil (+122,914).
- Weekly crop progress data released yesterday afternoon showed corn and soybean conditions each holding steady on the week at 68% and 66% respectively, while winter wheat conditions fell 1% on the week in the G/EX category to 26% and spring wheat conditions fell 1% also to 54%. Winter wheat harvest advanced 15% on the week to 40% complete, which remains well ahead of both last year (18%) and the five-year average (24%).
- At the state level for corn, states that saw the most improvement on the week included IN (+9%), TN (+7%), TX (+6%), and KY (+5%), while the biggest declines on the week were seen in OH (-7%) and IL (-6%). For soybeans, states that saw the most improvement on the week included TN (+16%), MS (+11%), IN (+9%) KY (+6%) and OH (+6%), while the biggest declines were seen in MI (-8%), LA (-6%), MN (-4%), ND (-4%) and SD (-4%).
- US Vice President J.D. Vance said this week that any money from unfrozen Iranian assets would be used for the country to purchase US soy, corn and wheat, though additional details were lacking. Said Vance, "If Iranian assets are ever unfrozen, they're going to make American farmers richer." Iran is a typical importer of ag products, but the bulk of their business is typically done with countries like Brazil, Russia and India.
- In South America, private group AgRural said that safrinha corn harvest in Brazil's center-south had reached 16% complete as of late last week, which compares to 13% through the same date last year. The group also added that soybean acreage expansion in the coming season was expected to be the lowest in nearly two decades, citing tight margins, rising debt, and concerns associated with El Niño.
- Meanwhile, Abiove continues to adjust its usage forecasts higher for the crop that was just harvested, raising 2026 crush to 63 MMTs, up a little less than 1% from previous, which drops ending stocks from an estimated 8.25 MMTs to now 7.87 MMTs. The group also raised both its production and export forecasts for meal as the result of the increased crush figure.
- Black Sea crop analyst Argus said this week that Ukraine's 2026/27 wheat production was likely to come in at 24.1 MMTs, which if accurate, would be up some 3.4% from last year's total and would also be about 0.6 MMTs higher than the group's estimate from last month. A virtual crop tour that showed stronger yield prospects in some regions than anticipated was given as reason for the increase.
EXPORT NEWS:
- Private exporters reported sales of 100,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico. Of the total, 30,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2025/2026 marketing year and 70,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2026/2027 marketing year.
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
