Morning Markets: Corn: +2.75 old & +2.25 new.
Beans: -0.50 old & 0 new. Wheat: +7
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Quiet and in low volume has been overnight trade at the CBOT to get Tuesday started, with the grains generally following through on yesterday's small bounce and trading at or near the highs for the week so far while the soy complex trades mostly mixed this morning on two-way signals from lower energy markets but a generally higher ag space. With the fundamentals seemingly having stagnated a bit on the same few stories that have been in place for weeks now, we imagine oversold technical conditions are going to become the talk of the trade at some point sooner than later this week. The fund washout is likely close to having run its course, and we'd like to think some semblance of more 'normal' trade returns thereafter. Corn futures to start Tuesday are trading 2-3 cents higher, soybean futures are trading either side of unchanged, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 5-7 cents higher.
Crude Oil is down $2.04 at $89.26
US Dollar is down at $99.71
Dow futures are down 80 points at 50,786
WEATHER:
- As forecasts continue to point to a high probability that a rather extreme El Niño event unfolds over the next several months, officials at the Panama Canal this week announced a draft reduction at the waterway's neo-Panamax locks beginning on July 3rd in response to the development. The Canal relies mostly on a freshwater lake system to operate its locks, which a developing El Niño poses a direct threat to via reduced rainfall in the region.
- Not a lot new on the weather front this morning, as models continue to show most of the central and north-central parts of the country as having continued severe weather/storm risk the next few days and into the end of the week, while heat generally lingers through the weekend. Satellite data shows 2-3" rains in the last 24 hours for parts of eastern IL/western IN, a pocket of western KY and also through eastern KS/western MO, while models have additional rains of anywhere from a half inch to another 2-3" possible for most of the Midwest, maybe favoring the north, the rest of the week.
- Monday's weekly crop progress update showed corn conditions in the G/EX category unchanged on the week at 67%. At the state level, both IL and IA saw 2% improvements while IN fell 4%; PA was up 16% on the week, CO was up 10%, and both KY and ND were up 5%. For soybeans, conditions fell 1% to 65% G/EX, led by a 6% drop in NC, a 5% drop in AR and a 4% drop in IN; MO was down 3% and LA, MI, and ND were all down 2%. Planting progress was seen at 97% on corn and 92% on soybeans.
- For wheat, winter wheat conditions fell another 1% in the G/EX category on the week to 25%, led by an 8% drop in MI, a 5% drop in OR and a 4% drop in OK. Harvest progress advanced 6% on the week to 11% complete, which compares to last year at 4% and the five-year average for this week at 6%. Spring wheat was rated 52% G/EX, up 5% from last week, while planting was seen at 98%.
- Preliminary Chinese customs data for the month of May showed soybean imports into the country during the month at a slightly better-than-expected 11.79 MMTs, though the figure was still down some 15% from the nearly 14 MMTs imported in May of last year. Cumulative imports through the first five months of the calendar year now stand at 36.94 MMTs, which compares to 37.11 MMTs through the same period a year ago.
- Private South American ag consultancy AgRural said on Monday that safrinha corn harvest in Brazil's center-south region had reached 4.4% complete as of late last week, which compares to 2.4% the week prior and 1.9% through the same day a year ago. The group also trimmed its production figure for the crop by 900k MTs to 108.2 MMTs.
- Ukraine's Deputy Economy Minister said at a grains conference in London this week that total grain exports out of the country would likely total roughly 37 MMTs in the current marketing year that ends at the end of this month, which would be down slightly from last year but would leave stocks in a better position for the new marketing year. The Minister added that energy costs and the ongoing war prohibited Ukraine from realizing all of its export potential in the season, but that extra stocks should boost exports for next year.
EXPORT NEWS:
- Private exporters reported sales of 120,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2025/2026 marketing year.
Noah Richardson
Topflight Grain Seymour
202 N Main Street, Seymour IL 61875
nrichardson@tfgrain.com
www.topflightgrain.com
