Morning Markets: Corn: -0.50 old & new.
Beans: -2.25 old & -0.50 new. Wheat: +3.75
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. It's been a peculiarly similar start to Thursday morning ag trade today as it was yesterday, with the markets having traded mostly lower through a lot of the overnight session before seeing a flurry of buying around 2-3am central time that has most of the space now again in the green. We've talked about it all week, but the rally this week can be very simply defined as a risk assessment event based on new developments in the Black Sea region that come on top of an already tightening global supply picture. Funds had gotten short wheat futures and are now being forced out of those positions, and are also getting back closer to flat the corn market in the process. Corn futures to start Thursday are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 3-5 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 3-4 cents higher.
Crude Oil is up $0.78 at $80.38
US Dollar is up at $100.61
Dow futures are up 67 points at 52,725
WEATHER:
- Heat across the central part of the country will continue to be the main weather feature the rest of the week this week and into the weekend, with the now much discussed high pressure ridge continuing to shove precip north into Canada. Heat-based convection into the weekend will allow for sporadic thunderstorm activity then beyond Saturday/Sunday, but totals into the middle of next week don't look to reach more than an inch across most of the Corn Belt.
- Further out then in the forecast, the models have precip increasing further across the eastern US into the end of the month, as a shift in the ridge back south and west will allow ridge-riding thunderstorms to impact more of the central parts of the US, with a path of good rains currently being advertised from SD/NE over to IA and northern IL/southern WI. Model runs have remained variable which doesn't give us a ton of confidence in this outlook yet, but that there is relatively decent agreement between the two is encouraging.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- This morning's weekly export sales report, with data for the week ending July 9th, is expected to show old crop corn sales in the week between 500k-1.1 mil MTs and old crop soybean sales between 100k-500k MTs. For new crop, corn sales are seen between 300k-1.1 mil MTs, soybean sales are seen between 900k-1.7 mil MTs, and wheat sales are seen between 250k-600k MTs.
- Though heat continues to be an issue and is likely to have a bigger impact on corn production, the French Farm Ministry on Wednesday confirmed that the country's soft wheat production had not been significantly impacted by the hot/dry weather, indicating harvest was still expected to total around 32 MMTs, which would be down just 4% from last year.
- President Trump is expected to make a rare prime-time address to the US this evening, though the speech could turn into a risk event for US-China relations as sources familiar with the situation say Trump is likely to discuss previously undisclosed election interference by the Chinese, referencing data collected during his first term. Intelligence communities have debated the validity of such data, making it unclear exactly what will be brought up during Trump's Thursday speech.
- Staying with the President, Trump also said this week that the US remained open to negotiations with Iran but that they would only occur under "intense military pressure." Trump also indicated US strikes could expand next week, adding that Washington could "finish them off" if Iran continues to not cooperate. Crude oil futures are quiet this morning and have traded a less than $2 range overnight.
EXPORT NEWS:
- N/A
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
