Morning Markets: Corn: +1.75.
Beans: +7.50. Wheat: +7.25.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Futures markets at the CBOT are mostly higher coming out of what was generally considered the first winter weekend of the season for many across the Midwest, as snow flurries dotted a lot of the area's northern states and the nice, mild, temperatures seen through most of October and the first days of November abruptly exited the area. Market-wise, the next several days look to once again be on the volatile side; weekend news of progress towards an ending of the government shutdown and Friday's much anticipated supply and demand catch-up release from WASDE will keep headline risk elevated this week, with the ongoing situation with the Chinese also continuing to supply a near-daily chance at headline-induced price swings. US corn and soy fundamentals come back into focus by the end of the week, but otherwise, our best guess is that rumors and speculation are once again the most common market theme this week. Corn futures to start Monday morning are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 3-6 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 5-6 cents higher. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton and soybean oil is up around 20 points. Outside markets are mostly higher to start, crude oil futures are up 20-30 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 180 points, and the US$ index is down 5 points; the S&P500 is up 60 points, and the NASDAQ is up 370 points.
Crude Oil is up $0.27 at $60.02
US Dollar is down at $99.395
Global Equities: Japan +0.0%, China +0.0%, and Europe +0.0%
Dow futures are up 167 points at 47,252
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn +0.0% and Wheat +0.0%
WEATHER:
- Weekend weather across the US Midwest featured one of the first measurable snowfall events of the season for a lot of the area's northern regions, with satellite-based snowfall maps showing accumulation of a couple inches through the eastern half of SD and into the border region between NE/IA/MN, and then some heavier amounts of up to 5 or 6 inches through northern IN and into MI on the downwind side of the Great Lakes. Satellite data also shows some light rainfall for these areas the last 72 hours, with maps showing scattered totals of generally around a half inch through the southeast and mid-south.
- South of the equator, Argentina saw some good rains in the far northeastern part of the country, but the growing areas to the south were generally on the dry side. Brazil saw heavy rains in the far south, with totals becoming more scattered as the system move north. Generally speaking though, aside from a pocket through MGDS in the southwest, most all of the growing regions in the north saw rainfall of a couple tenths to an inch or 2, while the south saw a heavier 2-4".
- Forecast-wise for this week, models show some additional light snowfall potential through the northeast and into Canada early this week, but the rest of the Midwest likely stays drier again as was being advertised through most of the week last week. Temperatures will stay cold today and tomorrow for areas east of the Mississippi, but then will again see a warm up by Wednesday, with daytime highs expected back in the 70's across most of the central part of the US and into the Midwest by the middle/back half of the week.
- To the south, the EU model this morning sees light/scattered rainfall chances lingering through northern and central Brazil the first part of the week this week, while light rains are also seen filling back in through the southern part of Argentina Tuesday into Wednesday. Northern Argentina/southern Brazil then stay generally drier through the end of the week this week, before the model sees heavier rains again impacting this area, as well as Paraguay, over the weekend this weekend and into the week next week. Like was the case last week, forecast threats continue to be minimal at this point.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- Another light delivery slate from the CME Group for Monday this morning, with the report showing just 76 soybean contracts assigned.
- Biggest headline news from over the weekend was a 60-40 procedural vote by the Senate in favor of advancing a stop-gap funding bill that had already made it through the House that would provide the federal government with funding through January 30th of next year and would also include three full-year appropriation bills. If the Senate fully passes the amended version of the bill, it will then go back through the House and then to Trump's desk before receiving final approval, a process that could potentially take another several days.
- While official CFTC data continues to be delayed, several traders and analysts feel managed money is likely closer to net-even in both the corn and Chicago wheat markets, as opposed to some estimates that still see them short some 50-75,000 contracts each. For last week, traders estimate funds bought a net 2,000 contracts in corn, bought a net 4,000 contracts in soybeans, and sold a net 3,000 contracts in the Chicago wheat.
- Headlines this morning are showing the US and China each agreed to suspend port fees on each other's ships for 12 months and paused probes into each other's maritime practices, but it’s unclear whether this is new news or just a continuation of the slew of headlines on the matter seen through the week last week. Other details on the situation from the last 72 hours are minimal, with there still being no sign of confirmation on any of the deal's more specific details from the Chinese side this morning.
- The Chinese ag ministry said in a monthly report that the country's corn production in the 2025/26 season was likely to total 300 MMTs, which if accurate, would be the highest production figure since records began being kept in 1949. Notably, the forecast is 1.3% higher than one made a month ago despite heavy rains disrupting growth in some of the country's northern growing regions. The ministry said soybean production in the 2025/26 season was seen at 20.9 MMTs, down slightly from last month.
- Monthly data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board released on Monday showed palm oil inventories in the country during the month of October increased more than expected after production in the month surged nearly 11% from the month prior to its highest level since August of 2015. Stocks were seen at 2.464 mil tons in the month, which is the highest level since April of 2019.
- In more obscure news from over the weekend, Reuters is reporting this morning that billionaire Bill Gates' foundation is planning on spending at least $1.4 billion over the next four years to advance technologies for farmers in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia that would help them better adapt to extreme weather. The announcement comes directly ahead of the annual COP30 climate meeting, which kicks off today in Brazil and runs through the 21st of this month.
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said over the weekend that he was ready to meet US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and stressed the need for regular contact between the two sides to address the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, but did not give any further details being made for such a meeting to occur at this point. Russia has continued to bombard Ukrainian cities and infrastructure with drone and missile attacks despite US President Trump's repeated calls for steps to be taken towards peace on both sides.
- President Trump took to Truth Social again late Friday afternoon last week, indicating he had asked the Dept. of Justice to "immediately begin an investigation into the Meat Packing Companies who are driving up the price of Beef through illicit Collusion, Price Fixing, and Price Manipulation." In a subsequent post, Trump added that "while cattle prices have dropped significantly, the price of Boxed Beef has gone up - Therefore, you know something is 'fishy.' We will get to the bottom of it very quickly."
EXPORT NEWS:
- N/A
Be safe!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
