Morning Markets: Corn: -2.
Beans: -7.25. Wheat: -9.
United Prairie will be serving lunch Monday, 10/19 from 11am-1pm in Pierson
State Bank of Bement will be passing out Harvest Bags Wednesday, 10/21 from 1:30pm-3:30pm in Bement
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Happy Friday. This week's theme of lower ag futures trade is again present to start the morning, with the wheat market leading the decline this time while the bean futures look to make it a perfect five for five week on the downside. Friday's loosening of the US balance sheets has led to a reduction in overall market length this week by the funds, and there has been little in the way of any sort of bullish info to offset it. End users are marginally underbought into winter which, along with seasonals, should provide some sort of support going forward, but for the rally cycle in corn and soybean futures to resume and for contract highs to be challenged, it likely takes some measure of new bullish development regarding one of either El Niño and the South American crop, the war between Russia and Ukraine, or buying by the Chinese. Corn futures to start Friday are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 4-5 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 8-10 cents lower.
Trivia: What TFG employee has a birthday today? (answer below)
Crude Oil is down $0.66 at $95.84
US Dollar is down at $101.74
Dow futures are up 46 points at 52,476
WEATHER:
- Weekend weather for the Midwest, while noticeably cooler than previous days this week, looks to be on the calmer side, as high pressure on the backside of this week's low looks to produce a cold, sunny weekend across the region. Temperatures warm back up into next week, but the models don't have much if any rainfall in the forecast for at least the next seven days which should allow for another good week of harvest activity.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- This morning's weekly export sales report, with data for the week ending October 8th, is expected to show corn sales between 500k-1.2 mil MTs, soybean sales between 500k-1.2 mil MTs, and wheat sales between 300k-600k MTs. The report is delayed a day due to Monday's holiday, but will still be out at 7:30am central time.
- CONAB on Thursday said they see Brazil soybean production at 181.6 MMTs in the coming season, up a little over a million tons from last year's record despite El Niño weather. Total corn production is seen at 148 MMTs, up from 144.5 last year, with the safrinha crop estimated at 113.2 MMTs. The USDA last week pegged Brazil soybean production at 186 MMTs and corn production at 139 MMTs.
- Also out Thursday was monthly soybean crush data from NOPA for the month of September - the report showed US crush during the month at 196.3 mil bu, down some 5% from August and down a little less than 1% from the same month last year. Soybean oil stocks were seen at 1.053 bil lbs, down 12% from August and at the lowest level since 2014.
- Weekly crop data out of Argentina from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange showed corn planting progress has advanced to 34.8% complete over the last week, up around 5% from the same time last year. The group said that wheat harvest, meanwhile, had been delayed due to excessive moisture.
- The International Grains Council this week raised its 2026/27 corn production forecast to 1.307 billion tons, up 6 million tons from its previous projection largely on increases in production estimates in the US. World wheat production forecasts were left unchanged at 820 million tons.
- Industry data released Friday from the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia showed wheat production in the 2026/27 season for the region, which is Australia's largest grain exporter, is now expected to be larger than originally thought following mild weather throughout spring. Production is now seen at 10.9 MMTs, up 9% from the previous estimate made in September but still down from the 13.3 MMTs produced in the region last year.
- Weekly data from the USDA for the week ending October 10th showed barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week at 399k tons, which was up 20% from the week prior; corn shipments in the week totaled 190k tons, up 27%, and soybean shipments totaled 207k tons, up 16%. STL barge freight rates were quoted at $26.85/short ton, down $2.00 from the week prior.
EXPORT NEWS:
- 127,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Japan during the 2026/2027 marketing year
- 558,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2026/2027 marketing year
- 236,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2026/2027 marketing year
Answer: Kelley Lawhorn!
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
