Morning Markets: Corn: +5.50 old & +4 new.
Beans: +15.25 old & +3.75 new. Wheat: +9.25 old & +8.50 new.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Ag prices are again higher this morning across the CBOT, and in the case of the soybeans, are back near the highs made on Monday as buyers have continued to flood the space amid inflationary fears and still rising world energy prices. Like we talked about yesterday, fundamentals have gone by the wayside a bit for the grain and soy markets, which makes predicting price action difficult. It's simply all about the Iran war right now, and headlines regarding the situation likely continue to account for the bulk of ag price discovery in the short term. Corn futures to start Thursday are trading 4-5 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 6-12 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 7-8 cents higher.
Crude Oil is up $5.84 at $93.09
US Dollar is up at $99.39
Dow futures are down 374 points at 47,074
WEATHER:
- Following another active weather day on Wednesday for the Midwest, Thursday looks to be on the quieter side for most in the area, before a northern clipper system looks to make its way across the northern and north-central parts of the region tonight and into tomorrow. Moisture north of I-80 likely falls in the form of snow, while models have precip south here coming as rain, but the exact line between the two will be difficult to pinpoint from a forecast standpoint.
- Models see variable Midwest temperatures the rest of the week and into the weekend, but then remain in good agreement on a shot of cold air punching into the mid-section of the US early next week and working south and east for several days following. At the same time, the west stays well above average, and this warmer air is expected to push back east again then into the end of next week, bringing most all of the US back to an above average temperature outlook.
- Rinse and repeat on South American weather again this morning, with Thursday model output again very similar to what's been seen for the better part of the last week. Argentina will continue to see a near-perfect mix of rain and sunshine that allows for both early harvest activity and later season crop development, while Brazil remains wet in the north and dry in the south. As we've talked about several times now, Brazil's tropical climate means soybean harvest can still proceed amid almost daily rainfall, but the longer things stay wet, the bigger the odds get that quality issues arise.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- The CME's delivery slate remains active; there were another 137 corn contracts assigned overnight, along with 23 contracts of soybeans, 10 contracts of meal, 173 contracts of bean oil, and 13 contracts of hard red spring wheat.
- This morning's weekly export sales report, with data for the week ending March 5th, is expected to show corn sales in the week between 800k-2.2 mil MTs, soybean sales between 250k-800k MTs, and wheat sales between 200k-450k MTs. Data will be out at 7:30am central time. Of note, though not of market importance, the USDA announced this week that its new export sales reporting system will go live on March 26th, with the old system expected to be shutdown the same week.
- Cargill is back in the news again this morning; sources are reporting the company has suspended soybean export operations from Brazil to China following updates in sanitary requirements from the Brazilian government. The company's Latin America head said this week that the new regulations were difficult for traders to comply with, adding that the system was "unusual" in the grain space. Cargill has also stopped buying beans from the farmer this week, which is part of the reason behind Wednesday headlines regarding no cash bids by traders in Brazil.
- Argentina's Rosario Grain Exchange in a monthly update this week made no changes to their production estimates for either corn or soybeans in the country despite widespread rains over the last month, citing ongoing moisture shortages in some local areas. The group sees Argy corn production this year at 62 MMTs and sees soybean production at 48 MMTs; the corn figure is up 10 MMTs from recent USDA estimates at 52 MMTs.
- A Russian rail operator said on Wednesday that the country's March wheat exports were expected to nearly double from the month prior to 3.7 MMTs, which if accurate, would also be well above the current five-year average for the month. Last year, Russia shipped just 2.1 MMTs of wheat in March. The group added that it sees cumulative marketing year exports through March totaling roughly 36 MTMs, which would compare to 36.3 MMTs last year.
- USTR Jameson Greer said on Wednesday that the US was launching Section 301 trade investigations into 16 trading partners including China, the EU, Mexico, India and Japan, which could result in new tariffs should unfair trade practices be discovered. Its unclear this morning exactly how long these investigations are expected to last, but Greer added that the US has already been in contact with these partners over the matter and that any potential policy response should not come as a surprise.
EXPORT NEWS:
- N/A
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
