Morning Markets: Corn: -1.50 old & -0.50 new.
Beans: -5.75 old & -6 new. Wheat: -5.25
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Both a new week and a new month have started with lower trade across the commodity space this morning, as the clear 'risk-off' mood seen throughout a lot of markets to end the week last week has spilled over into Monday morning. Crude oil futures are pacing the declines at this writing, but ranges in the grain and soy markets have been almost entirely to the downside through the bulk of the overnight session. Corn futures to start the day are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 3-5 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 4-5 cents lower.
Crude Oil is down $2.72 at $62.49
US Dollar is up at $97.53
Dow futures are up 23 points at 49,031
WEATHER:
- Weekend weather across the Midwest was little changed from previous days recently, as well below normal temps and scattered snowfall continued to impact much of the region, though accumulation was spottier and generally not a big issue for most outside of the Carolinas and other surrounding areas in the southeast where totals ranged from 4-12". For this week, models are honing in on a pair of systems, the first of which likely favors the southeast and southern Midwest Tuesday/Wednesday, and the second of which will likely favor the Great Lakes region and more up of the upper Midwest and northeast Friday into Saturday.
- Rainfall across Argentina the last 72 hours continued to favor areas to the west, but satellite imagery this morning does show some light totals of a couple tenths in a small local area to the southern part of Buenos Aires. Models show this dryness still lingering for another couple days, but then see better rains returning by Wednesday/Thursday, which will be critical for crops in the region. Temperature outlooks here also trended towards more average levels over the weekend, which will also aid crops.
- Brazil continued to see normal rains through the heart of its growing regions over the weekend, with only areas in the far south continuing to be short-changed on precip. Forecasts are little changed from last week, and continue to show regular monsoonal rains again continuing at last through the week this week and into the weekend, and more likely even through the following week, though our confidence here isn't quite as high due to the shifting MJO.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- Friday afternoon's CFTC Commitment of Traders update, with data for the week ending January 27th showed managed money traders in the week were buyers of 9,274 contracts of corn (-72,050), buyers of 7,261 contracts of soybeans (+17,321), and buyers of 15,958 contracts of Chicago wheat (-94,743); in soy products, funds were buyers of 6,401 contracts of meal (-31,797) and buyers of 38,605 contracts of oil (+13,335). This is the first time the funds have bee net-long bean oil since last October.
- Traders see this afternoon's monthly crush update from the USDA showing US soybean crush in the month of December at 230.4 mil bu, which would be up 4.5% from November and up 5.9% from last year, and also the second highest monthly figure ever. Soybean oil stocks as of the end of December are seen at 2.279 bil lbs, which would be up 6% from November and up more than 35% from the same month last year. Separately, traders see corn grin for ethanol in the month at 475.4 mil bu, which would be down a little under 1% from last year.
- The USDA's biannual cattle report, also released on Friday, was largely as expected, and showed all cattle in the US as of January 1 at 86.155 mil head, which was down from 86.472 mil last year and at the lowest level since 1951 for the second consecutive year; beef cows totaled 27.607 mil head vs 27.892 mil last year, and dairy cows totaled 9.568 mil head vs 9.381 mil last year.
- President Trump said over the weekend that his new Fed Chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, wasn't immediately open to cutting interest rates but that the two would discuss the matter; Trump added that any decision on the matter would be made independently, and without pressure from the White House.
- Other comments from President Trump over the weekend included another round of threats towards Canada, with the US leader indicating that the US would have a substantial response should Canada proceed with a trade agreement between them and China. Trump said that the US did not want China to "take over" Canada, and argued that the type of deal being discussed between the two could lead to excessive Chinese influence.
EXPORT NEWS:
- N/A
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
