Morning Markets: Corn: -1.
Beans: +12.50. Wheat: +4.50.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. New month. Markets are mixed/mostly higher this morning to get Tuesday started, with wide price ranges seen overnight as traders continue to chew through the plethora of day-to-day headlines coming out of Iran and the Black Sea and as momentum and money flow both continue to lean supportive. Declining crop conditions and the late-afternoon EPA news from Monday, as well as strength in world energy markets, got things started on a stronger note last night, but the space has spent most of the overnight session since working backwards, with both the grain and soy markets now well off their highs. If overnight price action is any indication, we would expect a two-sided day today, with headline-risk still very much present. Corn futures to start Tuesday are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 9-11 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents higher.
Crude Oil is up $2.25 at $88.01
US Dollar is up at $99.61
Dow futures are down 317 points at 52,923
WEATHER:
- With high pressure across the Midwest still largely dominating the pattern this week, forecast focus for Tuesday is going to shift south a bit to Tropical Storm Edouard in the Gulf, which is expected to bring rain and high winds to parts of southeast TX throughout the day today and into tonight. The National Hurricane Center this morning said the storm could possibly strengthen to a hurricane before making landfall, and that it would provide flash flood risks to the surrounding areas today and tomorrow.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- According to the CME Group, there were 187 contracts of Sep corn assigned for delivery overnight, along with 52 contracts of soybean meal, 336 contracts of rough rice, 60 contracts of KC wheat, 2 contracts of oats, and 9 contracts of Chicago wheat.
- At the state level, the biggest changes on the week in corn conditions were an 11% improvement in CO, a 6% decline in KY, and a 5% improvement in MI; IL and IN were unchanged on the week and IA fell 1%. For soybeans, the biggest movers were all on the losing side, with KY down 9%, MN down 8%, LA down 7% and KS down 6%; IL and IA were unchanged on the week, while IN was up 2%.
- Shortly after the close on Monday, the EPA announced that it had made decisions on the 34 remaining small refinery exemption cases, granting 18 full exemptions and 11 half exemptions while denying three cases and deeming the remaining two ineligible. The decision adds nearly 1.8 billion renewable fuel credits back to the market, nearly double the amount the agency initially expected to exempt though a proposal to reallocate 100% of that difference into the 2026 and 2027 RVOs is currently being discussed.
- The USDA is set to release monthly soybean crush and corn grind data for the US later this afternoon. Traders see July soybean crush at what would be a four-month of high of 220.2 million bushels, up 1% from the June figure and up more than 7% from July of last year; soybean oil stocks as of the end of the month are estimated at 1.878 bil lbs, which would be a new seven-month low but still up 0.2% from the same month last year.
- In a quarterly update on Tuesday, the Australian government lifted their wheat production forecast for the country by just over three million tons to 29.9 MMTs, citing better-than-expected rains in many of the country's growing regions. While up from previous estimates though, the figure would still be down some 17% vs production in 2025/26. Canola and barely production were also both increased from previous estimates in the update.
- Russia's Foreign Minister on Tuesday seemed to reiterate the country's stance on any sort of grain moratorium, doubling down on the idea that such an agreement would not bring a peaceful resolution to the war any closer. Newswires reported additional Russian strikes overnight on port infrastructure and a border crossing checkpoint with Romania, signaling that little has changed in the region over the last 24 hours.
- President Trump said on Monday that he was planning to refill the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve with Venezuelan crude oil, adding also that it would be their decision as to whether or not they would remain a member of OPEC. Trump said last week that his administration had reached a deal with the South American nation to take control of more than 65 billion barrels of oil reserves and that it would more than double the SPR.
EXPORT NEWS:
- N/A
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
