Morning Markets: Corn: -2.50.
Beans: -1.75. Wheat: +3.50.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning and Happy Veterans Day! Ag markets are seeing a bit of an expected correction through the overnight hours into Wednesday, as traders probably pushed the bean market a little too hard, too fast following what was a friendly but maybe not quite that friendly of a crop report. It's worth noting that soybean production actually increased from last month, but because the gain wasn't as much as the trade had feared and that it was offset some by a bump in exports, the market reacted how it did. At the end of the day, the simplest explanation for yesterday's jump might very well be nothing more than the fact that the markets had become oversold and traders were looking for any reason, big or small, to hit the buy button. The corn balance sheet loosened back up marginally, but otherwise, underlying ag fundamentals from a big picture standpoint didn't necessarily change a whole lot yesterday and longer term price direction is still going to be a product of South American production, Chinese demand, and global geopolitics. Corn futures at mid-week are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 3-5 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents higher.
Trivia: In what year did Illinois become a US state? (answer below)
Crude Oil is up $1.08 at $87.12
US Dollar is up at $102.84
Dow futures are up 146 points at 52,461
WEATHER:
- A small low pressure system sliding across the central part of the Midwest will be the weather focus for the next day or two, as models have the overall pattern through the region staying on the quiet side otherwise into next week. Rainfall totals will be minimal, but a cold front on the backside of this low will also drop temperatures into the end of the week and weekend, which will get more attention in the coming days than the precip.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- Yesterday's WASDE update showed average US corn yields at 179.6 bu/acre and production at 15.893 bil bu, while soybean yields were seen at 53.3 bu/acre and production at 4.574 bil bu. US wheat ending stocks were near unchanged on the month at 743 mil bu, while corn ending stocks were down slightly to 1.758 bil bu and soybean ending stocks were also down slightly to 300 mil bu. At the world level, corn stocks were raised to 281.94 MMTs, soybean stocks were trimmed to 123.5 MMTs, and wheat stocks were were raised to 280.82 MMTs.
- Equity markets are steady to higher this morning despite monthly inflation data for October coming in hotter than expected on Tuesday. Headline inflation was seen up 0.4% on the month, reinforcing ideas that the Fed could hike rates another quarter-percentage point before the end of the year. The CME's FedWatch tool this morning shows a nearly 90% chance now that such a hike occurs at the December meeting.
- While diplomatic efforts remain ongoing both in the Middle East via Qatari mediators and in the Black Sea via US and European mediators, there are fresh reports this morning of military strikes on both fronts. The IRGC said a third tanker had struck a naval mine this week, while both Russia and Ukraine said they had intercepted drones from the other side overnight.
- Qatar's Prime Minister told G7 members in Paris this week that his efforts had secured a period of at least two weeks to "pursue an understanding" between the US and Iran, though major differences still remain between the two. Vessels traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still the most immediate concern, with any perceived slowdown still likely to have an impact on world energy values.
- Sources familiar with the talks in Abu Dhabi this week said that Ukraine is awaiting a response from Russia on a proposed ceasefire, but that officials aren't overly optimistic regarding progress. Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister, also speaking on the talks, said it was too early for an assessment.
- The Governors of Alabama and Louisiana this week sent a letter to the US EPA requesting waivers from renewable fuel obligations in 2027, saying that the program's compliance costs result in higher fuel prices for consumers in their states. The requests are for partial relief during the 2027 compliance year, but there was no mention of requirements for 2026.
EXPORT NEWS:
- N/A
Answer: 1818 Illinois became the 21st state.
Be careful! Happy Veterans Day and Thank You for all who have served!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
