Morning Markets: Corn: -2 old & -1.50 new.
Beans: +6.75 old & +3.50 new. Wheat: -4.25 old & new.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. CBOT futures markets are mixed/mostly higher this morning coming out of the weekend, with the soy complex leading the upside move and wheat being the lone lower market of the bunch on additional Plains rains in the forecast. Corn, meanwhile, is stuck in the middle, trading higher though in light volume and with narrow ranges so far. With the USDA's May supply and demand update now looming next week, we would assume focus will begin to shift back towards market-specific fundamentals the next few days, but would also note that influence from the Middle East likely also remains ongoing, as the situation there seems generally unchanged from it was left on Friday. Corn futures to start Monday are trading unchanged to a half-cent higher, soybean futures are trading 5-7 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents lower. Bean oil is also higher, and has scored another round of new contract highs.
Crude Oil is up $1.14 at $103.08
US Dollar is up at $98.33
Dow futures are down 134 points at 49,512
WEATHER:
- Meteorologists are fairly confident in the cool weather pattern seen throughout much of the Corn Belt the last week or so continuing over much of the next week-10 days, while moisture continues to be more hit or miss in the west and generally more regular in the east and southeast. This morning's model runs for the next seven days have a half inch to two inches of rainfall likely for most of the Midwest east of the KS/MO line and south of roughly I-80, while some local areas could see upwards of 3+". The models notably also have light rains for KS/NE, but totals don't look to be more than a half inch or so and coverage is likely to be spotty.
- There is better model agreement then this morning on more warmer air moving into the eastern US in the 10-15 day period as high pressure works its way back east, while week two precip anomaly maps, now into the middle of the month, are little changed from last week and are keeping the southeast and East Coast wet, while most of the rest of the US sees average to below average rainfall chances.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- The CME Group for Monday assigned another 29 contracts of soybean oil for delivery, along with 311 contracts of corn, 36 contracts of KC wheat, 309 contracts of soybeans, 138 contracts of Chicago wheat, 3 contracts of oats, and 99 contracts of rough rice.
- Friday afternoon's CFTC commitment of traders report, with data for the week ending April 28th, showed managed money traders in the week were buyers of 79,697 contracts of corn (+264,103), sellers of 7,603 contracts of soybeans (+185,282) and were buyers of 21,380 contracts of Chicago wheat (+10,664). In the soy products, funds bought 333 contracts of meal (+121,189) and bought 281 contracts of oil (+165,725); this is another new record long bean oil position.
- Also out Friday afternoon was monthly grain and soybean crush data from the USDA for the month of March. The reports showed US soybean crush in the month at 227 mil bu, which was up 6% from Feb and up 10% from March of last year. Soybean oil stocks as of the end of the month were seen at 2.456 bil lbs, which was down 6% from Feb but up 18% from last year. Cron grind for ethanol was seen at 474 mil bu, which is up 10% from the month prior and up 5% from the same month last year.
- Cash sources confirmed last week that India has resumed wheat export shipments for the first time in roughly four years, loading 22,000 tons out of its western Kandla port for shipment to the UAE. Sources don't see the business becoming routine, but mentioned that rising prices caused by the war in Iran could make Indian supplies more attractive to buyers looking for shipment in the next 30-45 days. The Indian government has given export quotas totaling 5 MMTs so far for the current season.
- Staying in India, data on Monday showed palm oil imports into the Asian nation fell nearly 30% to a new 12-month low during April of just 505,000 MTs, driven by sluggish demand and a recent domestic price hike that eroded discounts to other veg oils. Soybean oil imports, meanwhile, reached a four-month high during April at 355,000 MTs, which was up some 24% on the month prior. India is the world's largest importer of veg oils annually.
- Sources familiar with the situation say the US biodiesel industry will likely have an increasingly difficult time meeting new EPA biofuel blending mandates for the coming years, with many saying it will likely be difficult for companies to increase production by the roughly 60% needed to meet the mandates. From a RIN standpoint, one noted analyst estimates blenders must generate roughly 915 million credits/month, which compares to 481 million generated in February and 651 million generated in March. "We are not even remotely close to what we need," said the analyst.
- President Trump said over the weekend that his trip to China for talks with President Xi Jinping "will be great," seemingly signaling at this point that the President does not expect additional delays to the trip spurred by the ongoing conflict in Iran.
- OPEC+ went ahead with planned production increases over the weekend, raising output quotas for several key members by 188,000 bbls/day following the exit by the UAE from the group last week. While bearish on the surface, the move likely has limited market impact in the short term, as developments in the Strait and whether Gulf exports can return to some semblance of normalcy remain the largest market factors.
EXPORT NEWS:
- N/A
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
