Morning Markets: Corn: -0.25.
Beans: +5.25. Wheat: -4.
Christmas Open House is coming up! 11am-1pm!
Cisco – Tuesday, 12/16
Seymour & Pierson – Wednesday, 12/17
Emery & Tabor – Thursday, 12/18
Grain Marketing Program signups are due by 12/31/25!! Contact your originator with any questions or if interested in signing up!
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Tuesday trade at the CBOT is quietly higher this morning in what has been mostly a dull, uninspired turn-around from the happenings seen on Monday. Soybeans are the upside leader in the space to start the day possibly on additional follow through strength in the bean oil market, but otherwise, there is little if anything new this morning driving prices. We don't know that we can say this holiday-like feel volume-wise should be expected for the rest of the time between now and Christmas, but would add that yesterday and so far again this morning has felt more like the holiday is at the end of the week this week than at the end of the month. Traders are becoming disenchanted with headlines regarding China and are beginning to understand that whether daily sales occur or not, business for the year has been lost the last 2-3 months that will not be able to be made up. That said, they also understand there's a lot of marketing year left though and that we're a long way from knowing for sure what final exports and ending stocks for the year are going to look like, and this likely leaves markets choppy in the meantime. Corn futures to start Tuesday are trading either side of unchanged, soybean futures are trading 2-5 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 3-4 cents lower. Products are higher, soybean meal is up around $1/ton and soybean oil is up 20-30 points. Outside markets are quietly mixed, crude oil futures are down 10-15 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 30 points, and the US$ index is up 10 points; the S&P500 is up 20 points, and the NASDAQ is up 90 points.
Crude Oil is down $0.30 at $59.02
US Dollar is up at $99.37
Global Equities: Japan +0.0%, China +0.0%, and Europe +0.0%
Dow futures are up 130 points at 47,482
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn +0.0% and Wheat +0.0%
WEATHER:
- Following a weekend winter weather blast across most of the Midwest, central and south-central parts of the area saw additional snowfall on Monday and into this morning, with satellite data for the last 24 hours showing another 2-4" falling across parts of MO and IL mostly, while heavier amounts were seen further west in a local area around Kansas City. From here, models see a system working across mostly the Canadian side of the Great Lakes today into tomorrow, while the bulk of the Midwest sees a few days of drier conditions until another low-pressure system is expected to work through over the weekend.
- Like we mentioned yesterday, model agreement from here then breaks down rather quickly, which is keeping our confidence in the forecast beyond the next five or six days lower than normal. High pressure ridging over the Pacific keeps southwest flow further to the south than normal, which keeps areas along the Gulf on the wetter side of average while the Midwest and much of south-central third of the country see drier biases.
- Still not a lot new to discuss for South America this morning, as models continue to see precip continuing to regularly fall across northern and north-central Brazil through the rest of the week this week and into the weekend. Precip for Argentina Saturday/Sunday is seen further to the west this morning than was being forecast on Monday, but this moisture still looks to work back north and east into next week, bringing rains back to the far southern areas of Brazil. Its dry pockets in this region that will continue to be the most concerning over the next week, especially in southern Mato Grosso.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- The Tuesday delivery slate from the CME Group included another 123 contracts of soybean oil, as well as 76 contracts of corn, 7 contracts of KC wheat, and 3 contracts of oats.
- The CFTC this afternoon is scheduled to release another round of catch-up fund position data; the report, which is expected at the regular 2:30pm central time, will have data for the week ending October 21st but is again not expected to produce much of a market reaction due to the data still being largely old news.
- Brazil's CONAB estimated soybean planting progress across the country at 86% complete in a weekly report released late on Monday, which compares to 90% last year and 84.4% avg. The group also estimated summer corn planting at 66% complete compared to 65% both last year and avg, and said wheat harvest had reached 95% complete compared with 98% last year and 95% average.
- Staying in Brazil, further data released on Monday in a monthly report from IMEA showed production prospects in top producing state Mato Grosso have declined over the last week, with the state's estimate now seen at 47.2 MMTs, which if accurate, would be down some 7% from last year. The group mentioned rainfall in November was better than what was seen in October, but that distribution was still a concern as some areas have continued to be short-changed. The group made no change to their corn production estimate for the state, leaving it at 51.7 MMTs, which would also be down 7% on the year.
- Meanwhile, private group Patria Agronegocios adjusted their forecast for Brazil's soybean production this year slightly higher to 171.89 MMTs, which is up 0.2% from a November estimate, while US group StoneX made an inverse adjustment from their previous estimate, saying they now see production at 177.2 MMTs, down almost a whole percent from last month. For reference, CONAB currently estimates production at 177.6 MMTs, while the USDA has the figure pegged at 175 MMTs; Brazil soybean production was seen at 171.5 MMTs last year.
- An executive director at a grain and oilseed group in Paraguay said on Monday that the start of soybean harvest in the country would likely be delayed by "several weeks" this year, due to a cold spell shortly after planting that slowed crop development. The group added that production in 2026 was still expected to be like that seen in 2025, and that the delays were nothing serious. Paraguay is the third largest soy exporter in South America, behind Brazil and Argentina.
- Monthly data from a private farm lobby in Ukraine showed ag exports out of the country in the month of November at roughly 5 MMTs, which is up some 12% from the total seen in October. The country's economy ministry said on Monday that total exports so far in the current marketing year had reached 12.38 MMTs, which is down from nearly 18 MMTs through the same period last year. For December, the group says export levels are expected to be like those seen in November, adding that corn harvest was still underway and that a significant amount of that was destined for export.
- In the livestock world, the USDA's monthly slaughter report, which had delayed data from October, showed commercial red meat production in the US during the month at 4.892 bil lbs, which was down almost 3% from last year but up nearly 9% from September's figure. Beef production was down nearly 6% from last year at 2.326 bil lbs, while pork production was up 0.3% from last year at 2.552 bil lbs.
- Other news in the meat markets overnight included a report that Spain and China had reached an agreement on Monday for the European country to resume pork exports from non ASF affected regions, which had been rumored to be likely over the weekend. No additional details were given in the update, with sources mentioning that an investigation into the origin of the virus was still ongoing. Spain is the EU's leading pork producer, and some 42% of its exports usually go to China.
EXPORT NEWS:
- N/A
Be safe!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
