Morning Markets: Corn: -1.75 old & new.
Beans: -4 old & new. Wheat: -6.25.
We will hold our Annual Crop Tour Meetings Thursday, August 27th
Lincoln ~ Knights of Columbus ~ 8 am for Breakfast!
Monticello ~ Monticello Community Building ~ 12 pm for Lunch!
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Tuesday trade is little changed from Monday to start this morning, with overnight volume again low on little new news headlines and as traders continue to wait for tomorrow's USDA data before taking on any sort of new positions. While wars and geopolitics continue to garner most of the headlines on a day-to-day basis, focus has shifted a bit this week it seems back to the crops and the growing season and this has produced a lull in the market amid what will likely be the first yield update of the season tomorrow. Weather hasn't been perfect, but it hasn't been terrible either and this has produced a fairly wide range of opinions on just what kind of a crop we're looking at. Traders are hopeful that tomorrow's report helps to narrow that range. Corn futures this morning are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents lower.
Crude Oil is down $0.52 at $81.61
US Dollar is even at $99.81
Dow futures are up 64 points at 54,127
WEATHER:
- This morning's GFS run is wetter across the northwestern part of the Midwest through the week this week, but still differs from the EU model's solution in overall rainfall amounts and coverage. The two are in better agreement on coming storms for the eastern and central parts of the region the next few days, but its the Dakotas and the northern half of NE that look to continue getting most of the attention this week amid a lack of soil moisture and the general heat that has been present there much of the last several days.
- Model runs are also still consistent this morning in showing cooler air working into much of the Midwest from the north beyond mid-week, while heat into the back half of the week will be confined to the southern/south-central US where high-pressure ridging will likely remain anchored. There will be a notable dividing line through the mid-section of the country, with highs differing by some 10-20 degrees possibly within parts of the same state in some cases like KS, MO, and IL.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- At the state level for corn, MI and ND saw the biggest declines on the week in the G/EX category, falling 10% each, while MN was down 4% and SD and WI were each down 3%; NE was up 3% on the week and IN was up 2%. For soybeans, ND saw by far the biggest drop on the week, falling 13%, while MN and MS were each down 3%; NE saw an increase of 5% on the week, while MI and NC were up 3% and AR was up 2%.
- For tomorrow's August WASDE update, traders according to Reuters see the USDA pegging old crop corn ending stocks at 1.999 bil bu, with new crop seen at 1.725 bil bu; production is estimated at 15.934 bil bu on a national average yield of 182.4 bu/acre. For soybeans, old crop ending stocks are seen at 321 mil bu, while new crop stocks are seen at 304 mil bu; production is estimated at 4.472 bil bu on a national average yield of 52.9 bu/acre.
- Preliminary volume data from the CME Group for Monday shows total soybean volume on the day at just over 151,000 contracts, which was actually below the volume of bean oil traded and was one of the slowest days of the year so far. Meal futures also weren't far behind, trading more than 142,000 contracts on the day.
- President Trump on Monday responded to Iranian conditions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz with his own demands, saying that Tehran must pay reparations for people killed in wars and for attacks on protestors in the country. The back-and-forth rhetoric seems to be illustrating another deterioration in negotiations, with both sides dug-in on their demands for a path forward. Oil futures are quietly lower this morning after trading up some $2+/bbl overnight.
- In the Black Sea region, new headlines overnight include reports that both Ukraine and Moldova have been in talks on shipping Ukrainian grain by rail through the country as an alternative to sea routes. The move would allow grain to reach the Romanian port of Constanta, with the two sides allegedly discussing a 50% discounted freight rate. From the Russian side, government officials are preparing a $122 million subsidy package to also reroute seaborn exports to rail amid restrictions in the Sea of Azov.
- NOAA said in a monthly update on Monday that temperatures across the US during the month of July were the hottest on record, topping the previous record that was in place for the last 90 years. Average temps across the country came in at 76.9 degrees F for the month, 0.1 degrees above the July 1936 record, which came during the Dust Bowl. Average overnight lows across the country also set a new record during the month, coming in at 64.2 degrees.
EXPORT NEWS:
- 136,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2026/2027 marketing year
- 180,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to the Philippines during the 2026/2027 marketing year
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
