Morning Markets: Corn: -1.25 old & -0.50 new.
Beans: -2.50 old & -2.25 new. Wheat: -4.
Topflight Grain is offering Free PL on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We also are offering Free PL on corn delivered to Pierson based on space availability good thru August 31, 2026.
Christmas Open House THIS WEEK! 11am-1pm!
Cisco – TOMORROW, 12/16
Seymour (Venison BBQ & Chili) & Pierson – Wednesday, 12/17
Emery & Kruger – Thursday, 12/18
Grain Marketing Program signups are due by 12/31/25!! Contact your originator with any questions or if interested in signing up!
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Ag markets are mixed this morning in little to no volume and with small trading ranges, as the last full week of markets at the CBOT before the Christmas holiday next week has started without much excitement. From a news standpoint, this week will likely see largely the same broad/general topics discussed as last week, but in our opinion, trade the next several days probably becomes more a product of the holidays and the lack of attention being paid to the space than what's going on with the news. With so many unknowns still up in the air (China, tariffs, biofuels, South American production, Russia/Ukraine) we see traders as loath to take on any sort of sizeable new positions the next several days, which means the space will likely be rather thin by the end of the week and especially the first part of next week. Corn futures to start Monday morning are trading either side of unchanged, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 4-5 cents lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up around $1/ton and soybean oil is down 5-10 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are down 20-30 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 250 points, and the US$ index is down 10-20 points; the S&P500 is up 30 points, and the NASDAQ is up 140 points.
Crude Oil is down $0.28 at $57.16
US Dollar is down at $98.32
Global Equities: Japan +0.0%, China +0.0%, and Europe +0.0%
Dow futures are up 253 points at 49,113
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn +0.0% and Wheat +0.0%
WEATHER:
- Much of the Midwest saw another blast of winter weather over the weekend, with frigid air temperatures and heavy snowfall impacting a good chunk of the central part of the region. Snowfall totals across parts of IA/IL and then on east into IN/OH and up the rest of the East Coast were seen ranging anywhere from 1-12", with the heaviest accumulations on satellite across the broadest area seen through central IL, while small/local areas through the northeast could've possibly seen heavier snowfall.
- Forecasts for this week show a noted pattern shift on the horizon though, as high pressure that has been stuck in the eastern Pacific works its way across the midsection of the country, providing a noted warm up by mid-week. The warmest air looks to stay in the west-central part of the country in parts of CO/KS/NE/SD, but areas through the Midwest look to see highs in the 40's/50's into the end of the week and weekend. This high pressure will also bring about a few days of drier conditions before models see a storm system working back into the area Thursday/Friday the end of this week.
- South of the equator, southern Brazil saw expectedly heavy rainfall over the weekend, with satellite data showing much of Parana and southern Mato Grosso receiving upwards of 6-10" of precip the last 72 hours. Some additional light/scattered rains are expected here the early part of this week, but otherwise, models see precip expanding back into the north by the end of the week while the south again turns off into a bit of a drier pattern.
- Argentina doesn't seem to have much in the way of precip potential through most of the week this week, as the models have most of the country's growing regions dry until some light/scattered precip maybe shows back up towards the end of the week and weekend. We will continue repeating though that dryness is non-concerning at this point in Argentina and is desired in a lot of areas due to excessive moisture in the first part of the season and the need to catch up with planting operations. As was the case going home for the weekend, there just continues to be little in the way of big picture forecast threats for either of the two countries.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- This morning's delivery slate from the CME Group included 20 contracts of soybean meal, 18 contracts of soybean oil, 32 contracts of corn, and 16 contracts of KC wheat.
- Another round of delayed CFTC data from Friday afternoon showed fund traders in the week ending November 18th were buyers of 77,649 contracts of corn (+38,127), buyers of 35,182 contracts of soybeans (+229,625) and buyers of 10,071 contracts of Chicago wheat (-48,691); in soy product, funds were buyers of 29,285 contracts of meal (+59,311) and buyers of 16,014 contracts of oil (-8,111). The next report will be released this afternoon and will have data for the week ending November 25th.
- This morning's weekly export sales report, with data for the week ending November 20th, is expected to show corn sales in the week between 1.1-2.2 MMTs, soybean sales between 800k-3.0 mil MTs, and wheat sales between 300k-750k MTs. The trade will also see regular weekly export inspection data this morning for the week ending December 11th at the regular 10am central time.
- Traders see NOPA's (the National Oilseed Processor's Association) monthly US crush report for November showing crush in the country at 220.285 mil bu, which if accurate, would be down from 3.2% from October's record figure but still up some 14% from the same month last year. Soybean oil stocks as of the end of the month are seen at 1.408 bil lbs, which would be a 7-month high and up some nearly 30% from November of last year. The report will be out this morning at 11:00am central time.
- Amid an ongoing shift in global trade flows caused by President Donald Trump's tariffs, sources familiar with the matter said over the weekend that China's state grain buyer Cofco had booked the country's first shipment of wheat from Argentina since the 90's. Argy prices are the cheapest on the world market currently thanks to a bumper harvest, and a lowering of the export tax rate by President Milei last week made the shipment even cheaper.
- Though not necessarily new news, Reuters reported late last week that the Trump administration and the EPA were unlikely to finalize biofuel blending quotas for the 2026 calendar year before it begins on Jan 1. The EPA said in a response to a request for comment that it was still revieing public comments on the mandates and declines to offer any sort of guidance on when it thought a decision might be made. The EPA had a December 15th deadline set by an appeals court in D.C. to provide a status update on the situation, but the deadline does not require a final ruling.
- The USDA said over the weekend that it had found a case of avian influenza in a herd of dairy cattle in Wisconsin, which was confirmed through routine milk testing. The case marks the first to be known in the state, which makes it the 18th across the US to have seen a recorded case since the outbreak began in March of 2024.
- President Trump said on Friday that he was considering either Kevin Warsh or Kevin Hassett to serve as the next Fed Chairman, further signaling a preference for a candidate that more aligns with his economic views but also adding doubt to what has seemingly been a forgone conclusion that Hassett would be the next appointee. The comments raised questions from some economists regarding Fed independence from the White House, but Hassett reiterated that rate decisions will stay with the central bank.
EXPORT NEWS:
- 150,320 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2025/2026 marketing year
- 136,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2025/2026 marketing year
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
