Morning Markets: Corn: +0 old & new.
Beans: -3 old & -3.50 new. Wheat: +2.
All TFG locations will be closed Friday, July 3rd for Independence Day!
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Happy Report Day. Tuesday trade has started off quietly mixed across the CBOT, with the ag markets seeing low volume and small price ranges as traders await this morning's much anticipated quarterly stocks/seeding update from the USDA. Whether or not the report has something in it that produces a price swing in one direction by today's close will be seen in due time, but there is nobody who feels strongly enough one way or the other to jump in front of what historically has been one of more volatile market reports throughout the course of the growing season. As a general theme, we would stress risk management throughout the course of the day and into the holiday weekend, with it usually a fool's errand to try and outguess what the reports might say.
Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 2-3 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents lower also.
Crude Oil is up $0.66 at $71.41
US Dollar is up at $101.29
Dow futures are down 47 points at 52,525
WEATHER:
- Not a lot new on the forecast front this morning, as there continues to be good model agreement on ridging across the southeast providing warmer/drier conditions to much of the southern and south-central parts of the Corn Belt this week, while thunderstorms around the ridge's edge give moisture to areas in the north.
- The models continue to see the ridge retrograding back west though beyond the holiday weekend, which should return Midwest temps to more average levels and also allow the previously mentioned thunderstorms to impact more of the central part of the region. Ridge development over the next two weeks will continue to be the number one forecast feature to watch for, but things look less threatening again today than they did last week.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- On day one of the July futures delivery period, the CME Group's delivery slate included 729 contracts of soybean oil, 662 contracts of rough rice, 44 contracts of corn, 443 contracts of KC wheat, 84 contracts of oats, 31 contracts of soybeans, and 25 contracts of Chicago wheat.
- At the state level for corn, NE saw a 6% improvement in G/EX conditions on the week, while all three of NC, ND, and OH saw 5% improvements. Inversely, TX fell 8% on the week, IN was down 7% and KY was down 5%. For soybeans, LA was up 7% on the week in the G/EX category, while NE was up 5%, KS was up 3%, and all of MI, MN, NC and ND were up 2%; on the downside, IN was down 7%, AR was down 6% and IL was down 3%.
- Traders, according to a Reuters survey of analysts, see this morning's quarterly stocks update showing US June 1 corn stocks at 5.408 bil bu vs 4.643 bil last year, June 1 soybean stocks at 1.046 bil bu vs 1.008 bil last year, and June 1 wheat stocks at 934 mil bu vs 855 mil last year. For planted acreage, traders see US corn acres at 94.992 million vs 95.338 million in March, soybean acres at 85.369 million vs 84.70 in March, and all wheat acres at 32.422 million vs 32.410 in March.
- While negotiators from the US and Iran were set to meet in Qatar on Tuesday, there is confusion on whether this meeting will now actually take place amid comments from the Iranian side that no such meeting had been scheduled. Iran has seemingly characterized the talks as focused on ceasefire compliance as opposed discussions on a more comprehensive agreement, while the US has sent its top envoy of Witkoff and Kushner.
- AgRural said safrinha corn harvest in Brazil as of late last week had progressed to 22% complete, which compares to 16% the week prior and 18% during the same week last year. The group said progress in Mato Grosso state remained steady, but that other states were seeing delays due to ongoing cool/wet weather.
- Following a recent virtual crop tour, global commodity pricing agency Argus Media said this week that they now see Russian wheat production in the 2026/27 season at 91.2 MMTs, which is up from a previous estimate of 90.5 MMTs. The group cited better-than-expected winter wheat prospects found on the tour as reason for the increase.
- A notice sent out by the USDA Monday evening said that President Trump had signed a proclamation temporarily suspending countervailing duties on certain phosphate fertilizer imports, which the notice says will immediately increase availability, increase competition, and help lower costs associated with one of agriculture's largest production expenses.
- Global commodities group Expana this week raised their forecast for EU rapeseed production in the current season by around 150,000 tons, but warned that drought conditions and an ongoing heatwave were quickly raising the risks for sunflower and soybean yields. France, the EU's largest grain producer, has set new record daily highs multiple times over the last couple weeks.
EXPORT NEWS:
- Private exporters reported sales of 100,000 metric tons of hard red spring wheat for delivery to Nigeria during the 2026/2027 marketing year.
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
