Morning Markets: Corn: +0.50.
Beans: -2. Wheat: -2.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning; and welcome to WASDE day. Futures markets in the ag space are trading quietly higher this morning to get Tuesday started, in a bit of a turn-around-type trade from the light selling that was seen on Monday. Peace talks in Abu Dhabi regarding the situation in the Black Sea are underway but have so far not yielded any sort of notable headlines, and this has left attention squarely on the USDA's November WASDE update, which is due out at 11am central time. News related to these two items is likely to control price action for the most part today and through the week this week, with other items pushed to the back burner at least in the short term. If nothing solid comes out in terms of peace prospects between Russia and Ukraine in the next day or two though, focus then shifts to weather in South America and export demand then into the end of 2026 and start of 2027. Corn futures to get report day rolling are trading on either side of unchanged, soybean futures are trading a penny higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents higher.
Trivia: 1973 Triple Crown winning racehorse? Widely considered the most famous horse in history. (answer below)
Crude Oil is down $2.28 at $84.57
US Dollar is up at $102.02
Dow futures are down 102 points at 52,396
WEATHER:
- While still quiet overall, models this morning are in better agreement on a passing cold front that's expected to work through the region over the next 24-48 hours or so, and see light rain falling across generally the eastern part of the region through the middle of this week. Totals will be light and variable for the most part, but its the cool air that follows into the back half of the week that will get most of the attention as daytime highs drop to more seasonal levels beyond Wednesday and then into the weekend.
- Weather in Brazil and Argentina looks to remain non-threatening this week, as the models continue to be in good agreement on normal rainfall falling across the bulk of Brazil, while areas to both the far north and the far south see drier trends. The south has seen too much moisture in places already over the last 6-8 weeks, which means the drier outlook should be beneficial though there isn't a lot of heat expected along with it. Argentina has gone warmer in the forecast, but rains also look to continue normally here, with the only real issue of note to this point being too much water in some local areas.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- This morning's WASDE update, according to a Reuters survey of analysts, is expected to show US corn yields at an average of 180.3 bu/acre, with production at 15.962 bil bu and ending stocks at 1.840 bil bu. For soybeans, national average yields are seen at 53.5 bu/acre, with production at 4.597 bil bu and ending stocks at 331 mil bu. At the world level, corn stocks are seen rising slightly to 281.44 MMTs, while soybean stocks are seen near unchanged from last month at 124.73 MMTs.
- At the state level on crop progress, MI saw the biggest increase in corn harvest progress last week, jumping 18%, while OH was up 16%, IN was up 12% and WI was up 11%. For soybeans, OH saw a 9% increase in progress last week, while IN, KS, KY, and NE were all up 6%, and IL, MI, MO, and TN were all up 5%.
- Chinese customs data for the month of October showed soybean imports from all locations in the month at 7.35 MMTs, which was down more than 22% from the same month a year ago and the lowest October figure since 2023. Cumulative 2026 imports are now seen at 93.48 MMTs, which is down 2% from last year.
- Touched on this briefly yesterday afternoon, but the USDA's ten-year baseline projections, released yesterday, showed 2027/28 US corn planted area at 95.5 mil acres, while soybean area was seen at 87.5 mil acres and all wheat area was seen at 44.0 mil acres. These figures are used for budgeting purposes and are not actual estimates but give a preliminary indication of where the agency sees things headed next spring.
- In the Middle East, President Trump said this week that additional major military action against Iran was unlikely at this point, but only if Tehran agrees to a strong deal. However, Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that Iran's demands remain unacceptable and that a diplomatic breakthrough still didn't seem imminent. Crude oil futures are trading around $1.50/bbl lower at this writing this morning.
EXPORT NEWS:
- 312,700 metric tons of corn received in the reporting period for delivery to Mexico during the 2026/2027 marketing year.
- 150,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2026/2027 marketing year.
Answer: Secretariat. 31-length Belmont Stakes victory is an American record for 1.5 miles on dirt. Track record still stands at 2:24.
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
