Morning Markets: Corn: -0.75 old & -0.50 new.
Beans: +5 old & new. Wheat: -1.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Happy Friday. CBOT ag markets are mixed this morning to begin wrapping up the week, with the soy complex in the green and the feed grain markets in the red. With trader focus almost entirely on the coming Monday supply and demand update, we would expect a choppy day of back-and-forth price action today to end the week. Corn futures are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 4-5 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents lower.
Crude Oil is up $0.34 at $58.10
US Dollar is up at $98.95
Dow futures are up 146 points at 49,639
WEATHER:
- Snowfall maps this morning have taken out the band of heavier accumulation that was expected yesterday following less than snow than was expected out of system one last night and into this morning. This system will continue to provide mixed precip to the eastern part of the region through the day and then the East Coast later tonight, with the second, smaller system then expected to move through the region tonight and through the day on Saturday. Once this second system exits, Sunday then looks to be a fairly calm day for most to round out the weekend.
- In South America, good rains are expected to impact the northern parts of Argentina and far southern parts of Brazil the next couple days, while central and especially east-central regions further to the north will likely see another few days of drier conditions into the first part of next week. Heat continues to stay mostly absent, which will act to further limit late season crop stress.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- According to the CME Group, there were another 84 contracts of soybeans assigned for delivery this morning, along with 52 contracts of soybean meal, 166 contracts of soybean oil, and 119 contracts of rough rice.
- For Monday's January WASDE update, traders see corn ending stocks coming in at 1.986 bil bu, which would be down from 2.029 bil last month, while soybean ending stocks are seen at 294 mil bu, up slightly from 290 mil last month. At the world level, corn stocks are seen increasing slightly to 280 MMTs, and soybean stocks are also seen increasing slightly to 123.5 MMTs. On production, corn yield is seen at 184.0 bu acre vs 186 last month, which with 90 mil harvested acres would produce a crop of 16.554 bil bu; soybean yield is seen at 52.7, with harvested area at 80.3 mil acres and a crop of 4.233 bil bu.
- Weekly data from the BAGE on Thursday showed 75% of the corn crop in the excellent category, which is down from 82% last week, though just 1% is rated poor. For soybeans, 65% of the crop is rated excellent vs 68% last week, but there is still 0% of the crop rated in the poor category. Planting of both crops is nearly complete, with data on both crops showing progress near 90% complete as of Wednesday. Wheat harvest has also nearly wrapped up, with the report showing progress at 98.5% complete.
- China's National Grain Trade Center said in a notice on Friday that state stockpiler Sinograin is set to auction another 1.1 MMTs of imported soybeans on January 13th, which will include supplies from between 2022-2025.
- Private data out of Ukraine backed up what recent data released by the government had shown in indicating grain exports out of the country saw a notable decline in December due to ongoing Russian attacks on ports and other related infrastructure. The group showed wheat exports were down almost 25% in the month compared to November, while corn exports fell some 13%. Ukraine's exports had already been lagging going back to earlier this fall, but sources say the ongoing attacks have exaggerated the situation.
- The UN's Food and Agricultural Organization's food commodity price index showed global food prices declined during the month of December by 0.6%, which marks the fourth consecutive monthly decline.
- According to the USDA, barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending December 27th were seen at 404k MTs, which was down 20% from the week prior; corn shipments at 250k MTs were down 14%, while soybean shipments at 150k MTs were down 27%. STL barge freight rates were quoted at $19.95/short ton, up 8 cents on the previous week.
- Equity markets are seeing quiet gains to start the day on Friday ahead of what is expected to potentially be a somewhat notable Nonfarm payrolls report this morning. The data also precedes a possible Supreme Court ruling on President Trump's tariffs at some point during the day today, though we have little to no insight this morning as to what the odds of that occurring are, or what time it might be expected if such a ruling is made.
EXPORT NEWS:
- Private exporters reported sales of 198,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2025/2026 marketing year.
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
