Morning Markets: Corn: -2.50 old & -3.25 new.
Beans: -9.75 old & -3.50 new. Wheat: -5.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. It’s been a quieter to start to Tuesday trade at the CBOT this morning, with mixed markets being featured amid some backing and filling after the run-up seen to start the week on Monday. Yesterday's crop progress update showed the heat last week maybe had less of an immediate impact than had been anticipated, but focus continues to largely remain elsewhere amid ongoing geopolitical tensions both in the Black Sea region and in the Middle East. Much like was the case yesterday, the US crop is in or is about to be in the most critical phase of the growing season, but its war that continues to have the most trader attention today. Corn futures to start Tuesday morning are trading around two pennies lower, soybean futures are down, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 5 cents lower.
Crude Oil is up $1.55 at $84.03
US Dollar is up at $101.02
Dow futures are up 125 points at 52,198
WEATHER:
- A passing cold front will provide much of the eastern part of the US with thunderstorm/rain potential throughout the day on Tuesday, though as we've discussed repeatedly of late, exact rainfall amounts/locations will be difficult to pinpoint in the forecast. Once this front works through the during the day today, focus will swing back west, as the models then see additional rain/thunderstorm activity for a pocket through SD/NE/KS and then over into parts of IA/MO, with precip totals estimated by the model this morning in a range of 1-3" generally speaking.
- The previously mentioned frontal boundary will also provide a temporary drop in temperatures for much of the central and eastern US today and through the end of the week this week, with highs throughout a lot of the Corn Belt not expected to exceed the 80 degree mark between now and Saturday. Heat that's pushed west comes back into the country's mid-section then next week, but the brief cooldown will be a welcome reprieve for crops the next few days.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- At the state level, CO and ND both saw 10% declines in their G/EX categories for corn in the week, while SD was down 8%, and MN and WI were each down 4%; TX improved 5% on the week, and TN and NC were each up 3%. For soybeans, AR fell 6% on the week, while ND and SD were each down 5% and W was down 4%; NC saw a 13% jump on the week, while IA and MS were each up 3%.
- Traders and analysts said Monday that Russian wheat prices this week for August delivery were up some $7/ton from the week prior to $235/ton, surging on difficult shipping conditions in the Sea of Azov. Private groups have continually been cutting monthly export forecasts, which now sit at around 1.5 MMTs vs exports north of two million tons seen in June.
- Paris corn futures on Monday surged to a nearly two-month high, with the spot contract touching €256.50/ton on news that Russian missiles had hit a cargo ship carrying corn from Ukraine as it departed the Odesa port region. The rise in price is also being driven by ongoing falls in crop conditions and production estimates due to recent heat/dryness.
- The Wheat Quality Council's annual spring wheat crop tour is set to begin in North Dakota later today and run through Thursday, with officials related to the group saying they expect to see mostly dry field conditions and not a lot of disease pressure. Said one scout with the North Dakota Wheat Commission, "Yes, we've seen some stress on the crop. Is it a disaster right now? Absolutely not. Things still look fairly promising." The tour will release a final state production estimate on Thursday.
- In South America, private consultancy AgRural said this week that safrinha corn harvest in Brazil has reached 49% complete, which is up from 40% last week but continues to lag last year's pace of 55%. The group mentioned that harvest pace had increased for the second straight week after a slower period caused by ongoing rains and excess moisture.
- According to data released by the Indian farm ministry on Monday, seeded area in the country of rice, oilseeds, and pulses is expected to drop year-over-year and miss most early season forecasts following a weaker than normal monsoon season this year that has seen rainfall totals down nearly 25% from normal. Rice area is seen down a little less than 1% from last year, while pulses are down some 15%; corn and oilseed areas are both seen falling about 5%.
- President Trump's White House is said to be weighing the prospects of another temporary ceasefire with Iran aimed largely at again reopening the Strait of Hormuz against a broader military campaign that could target Tehran and Iranian nuclear facilities as it seems little progress has been made in the region the last 24 hours. The administration seems set on punishing Iran for violating the previous agreement, but has appeared to have left the door open for negotiations. Crude oil futures are up around $1.00/bbl this morning.
- Sources familiar with the matter said this week that the US was preparing to impose an additional new 50% tariff on certain Canadian goods, including some currently covered under USMCA, beginning on August 16th. The new measures are allegedly in response to trade barriers involving alcoholic beverages, dairy and motor vehicles, and would seemingly indicate an ongoing deterioration in relations amid a broader review of the North American trade pact that started earlier this month.
EXPORT NEWS:
- N/A
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
