Morning Markets: Corn: +6.25 old & +7 new.
Beans: +10 old & +8.75 new. Wheat: +20.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. It's more of the same this morning to get Wednesday commodity trade started, with world grain and energy markets continuing to add risk premium amid ongoing military action both in the Black Sea region and in the Strait of Hormuz. Outside of weather and the US crop situation, which have been pushed to the back burner a bit, and more so than what happens with Iran, the big question over the last ten days for ag has been how long does shipping remain constrained in the Sea of Azov and to what extent does that push business elsewhere. With US exports already at record levels, the balance sheet gets quite a bit tighter should any of that business shift to America, and this is the most basic way to explain the current rally. Corn futures this morning are trading 6-7 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 5-8 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 12-18 cents higher.
Crude Oil is up $2.23 at $86.57
US Dollar is down at $101.10
Dow futures are down 59 points at 52,384
WEATHER:
- Model-based rainfall maps for the next 7-10 days were once again little changed this morning, and continue to feature drier than normal conditions across a lot of the central and north-central parts of the country, while Tropical Storm Bertha puts down potentially heavy rainfall along the Gulf Coast and into parts of eastern TX. Models also still have ridge-riding thunderstorms providing rains to a corridor from SD to TN the rest of the week this week, with totals between now and the end of the day on Sunday seen in a range of a half inch to two inches generally speaking.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- This morning's weekly ethanol update from the EIA, with data for the week ending July 17th, is expected to show average US daily production in the week between 1.020-1.100 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are seen between 24.00-25.90 mil bbls; on average, both figures would be up from last week if accurate.
- Following day one of annual North Dakota wheat crop tour, scouts predicted yield in the southern part of the state at 46.0 bu/acre, which would be down from 50.0 estimated on the same route last year but still above the five-year average of 45.8. Scouts sampled a total of 86 fields on Tuesday, mentioning that conditions were highly variable and adding that heat over the last 10 days had likely had an impact on the crop.
- Global analytics firm Hedgepoint said this week that Brazil was likely to lose its status as the world's number two corn exporter, at least temporarily, following zero exports to key buyer Iran during the month of June and an overall decline during the first half of 2026 amid ongoing war in the country. The group pegs total Brazil exports in the 2025/26 season still up from the year prior at 43 MMTs, but sees Argentina's exports in the season reaching 45 MMTs.
- An already hot global vegoil market could be getting hotter in the weeks/months ahead, as several industry officials in India this week said the country's edible oil imports were likely to increase between July and October ahead of festival season. Sources familiar said imports were likely to increase to some 1.5 million tons/month, which would be up from an average of 1.3 million tons during the first eight months of the 2025/26 marketing year that ends in October.
- As if there weren't enough global shipping problems already due to multiple geopolitical flashpoints in the eastern hemisphere, new problems in the west could expand upon these issues as officials from the Panama Canal this week said that they would be restricting some shipping slots due to water supply challenges. The cuts are expected to be minor at this point, with booking capacity said to only be dropping from 36 to 34 vessels/day, but it's unclear this morning how long the restrictions are expected to remain in place for.
EXPORT NEWS:
- N/A
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
