Morning Markets: Corn: -2.50 old & -2.75 new.
Beans: -7.75 old & -6.25 new. Wheat: -2.75.
All TFG locations will be closed TOMORROW, June 19th in observance of the Juneteenth holiday!
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Most ag markets are back to trading lower after a couple day correction to the upside this week, with headline news that the US and Iran had both signed the peace agreement that had been on the table, effectively reopening the Strait of Hormuz, driving price action early on this morning. It sounds like there is an additional 60 day working window to hash out some of the stickier details between the two sides and Trump has threatened to resume bombing should relations break down again, but at least for today, markets are trading like the war is close to being over. Corn futures to start Thursday are trading 3-4 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 9-11 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 3-4 cents lower. As a reminder, markets will be closed tonight and tomorrow for the Juneteenth federal holiday. Trade will resume like normal at 7pm Sunday evening, with a normal day session then set for Monday.
Crude Oil is down $1.60 at $74.41
US Dollar is up at $100.66
Dow futures are up 246 points at 52,190
WEATHER:
- The Storm Prediction Center's storm reports page for Wednesday shows a total of 8 tornado reports, generally scattered across the southern part of IL. Satellite based rainfall data for the last 24 hours show totals ranging from 1-3" across IA/IL/IN, but we've already heard gauge reports this morning that show heavier totals than that in some local areas. We talked about it some earlier this week, but too much moisture is beginning to become a concern across parts of MO/IA and other areas in the west-central Corn Belt where rainfall has totaled upwards of 10+" in the last two weeks.
- Models for the rest of the week see precip continuing across the southeast and states along the Gulf Coast, but the Midwest looks to get a small breather for a couple days before more rain returns Sunday/Monday and into the first part of next week. There is little sign of a pattern change into next week then, with the broader trough over the Hudson Bay and subsequent cut-off lows surrounding it still likely to be the primary driver of Corn Belt into the end of the week next week.
- According to data from India's Meteorological Department, the onset of El Niño across the equatorial Pacific has led to an unusually slow start to the country's monsoon season. Rainfall through Wednesday was down nearly 40% from average, raising crop concerns and disrupting other industries like construction. Officials say that the slow start means total rainfall in the season, which runs from June through September, will more than likely not be able to recover to normal levels.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- This morning's weekly export sales report for the week ending June 11th is expected to show old crop corn sales in the week between 700k-1.4 mil MTs and old crop soybean sales between 100k-300k MTs. For the new crop year, corn sales are seen between 400k-1.2 mil MTs, soybean sales are seen between 250k-500k MTs, and wheat sales are seen between 300k-700k MTs.
- Monthly Cattle on Feed data from the USDA is expected to be released at 2pm central time this afternoon. According to a Reuters survey of analysts, traders see the report showing the US feedlot herd as of June 1 at 11.729 million head, which would be up about 2.5% from last year. Placements during May are seen at 1.783 mil head (down 5.5%) and marketings in the month are seen at 1.572 mil head (down 10.6%).
- This week's Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC, typically out on Friday afternoons, will be delayed until next week due to tomorrow's holiday.
- The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday took a notably hawkish tone and removed key forward guidance in keeping interest rates unchanged in the 3.5-3.75% range. The Fed emphasized that inflation remains too high, with nine officials now looking for a rate hike before the end of the year. Chairman Warsh repeatedly told reporters that the Fed would deliver price stability, while also confirming that he did not, in fact, submit a dot to the dot plot, adding that a broader review of Fed communications was ongoing. Overall, the meeting leaned restrictive, as the tone clearly shifted more hawkish short term.
- Russian rail operator Rusagrotrans said Thursday that it sees Russian wheat exports in the month of June reaching roughly 2 million tons, which if accurate, would be up nearly 50% from the same month a year ago. The group said the higher adjustment was based on shipping data through the first half of the year that showed increased volumes through its deep-water ports.
EXPORT NEWS:
- 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2026/2027 marketing year
- 285,775 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2026/2027 marketing year
- 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2026/2027 marketing year
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
