Morning Markets: Corn: +0.
Beans: -4. Wheat: +2.50.
United Prairie will be serving lunch Monday! 10/19 from 11am-1pm in Pierson
State Bank of Bement will be passing out Harvest Bags Wednesday, 10/21 from 1:30pm-3:30pm in Bement
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Chicago ag markets are similar this morning to how they ended the day on Wednesday, with the beans and bean oil extending losses on the downside while the meal is higher and the grains are caught in the middle and near unchanged. We've talked about it all week, but market inputs continue to be rather scarce outside of the same handful of items we've talked about for some time now. Traders and the markets are slowly transitioning from the US growing season to the South American growing season, but the bigger picture themes like El Niño, the wars in the Black Sea and in Iran, and Chinese buying aren't going anywhere. Corn futures to start Thursday are trading either side of unchanged again, soybean futures are trading 3-4 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading around a penny higher.
Trivia: What state produces the most pumpkins? (answer below)
Crude Oil is up $0.18 at $94.08
US Dollar is down at $102.05
Dow futures are up 213 points at 52,071
WEATHER:
- The slow moving frontal boundary discussed yesterday across the central US looks to again be the main talking point weather-wise for Thursday, as models continue to show additional rains along a corridor from west TX to the Great Lakes and the northern part of the Midwest. The front will also bring a sharp drop in temperatures over the next 24 hours, with cooler air in the Plains today expected to work east into the weekend. The chill doesn't look to linger beyond the first part of next week though, as highs look to return to above normal for most all of the country thereafter.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- This morning's weekly ethanol update from the EIA, delayed a day because of Monday's holiday, is expected to show average daily production in the US in the week ending October 9th between 1.065-1.095 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are estimated between 23.493-23.893 mil bbls. The report will be out at 11am central time this morning as opposed to the regular 9:30am.
- NOPA is scheduled to release monthly US soybean crush data for September later this morning - traders see the report showing soybeans crushed in the month at 203.737 mil bu, which would be down about 1% from August but up around 3% from the same month last year. Soybean oil stocks as of the end of the month are seen at 1.116 bil lbs, which would be down 7% from the end of August and the lowest figure since November 2024. Data will be out this morning at 11am central time.
- Brazil's CONAB is set to release its monthly crop report this morning, with the data being the first for the 2026/27 crop year. The group released preliminary estimates last month, but traders see today's update showing soybean production at 181.0 MMTs and corn production at 147.2 MMTs; both figures would be up from a year ago. Soybean planted area is seen at 49.3 million hectares vs 48.6 mil last year and corn planted area is seen at 23.1 million hectares vs 22.6 mil last year. The report will be out at 7am central time.
- Financial markets this morning are still trading under the influence from yesterday's monthly inflation update, which came in hotter than expected on an annual basis at 3.7%, largely on higher energy prices. The CME's FedWatch tool sees the odds of an October rate hike at just 30%, but these odds jump to north of 65% for the December meeting, as traders still broadly expect interest rates to go up one more time before the calendar turns to 2027.
- Sources cited by the New York Post this week say Russian diesel is expected to reach the US before the midterm elections on November 3rd, potentially offering price relief to farmers and grain shippers. The administration is said to also be weighing lifting restrictions on some shadow-fleet vessels in an effort to help lower global shipping costs and increase oil flows out of the Middle East.
- Ukraine resumed attacks on Russian energy infrastructure this week after pausing to accommodate President Trump's announcement of a proposed energy ceasefire, with President Zelensky indicating to reporters that "we're done," in reference to the short-lived agreement. Crude oil futures prices are quiet this morning and near unchanged after trading lower overnight.
EXPORT NEWS:
- 330,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2026/2027 marketing year
- 283,450 metric tons of soybeans received in the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2026/2027 marketing year
Answer: Illinois. Nearly 40% of U.S. production comes from the Prairie State alone.
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
