Morning Markets: Corn: +2.75.
Beans: +6.25. Wheat: -2.
TFG Customer Appreciation Lunches are on! 11:30am-1:30pm!!
Come get a pork chop!
TODAY!! ~ Emery
TOMORROW! ~ Cisco
Thursday ~ Johnston Siding
The United Church of Atwood will be serving pork chop lunches Saturday, 10/3 from 11am-1pm in Pierson by free-will donation!
The Sadorus 4H all stars will be selling BBQ meals and baked goods Sunday, 10/4 from 11am-1:30pm in Milmine
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Overnight ag trade has been two-sided to lower again following the sell-off seen across the space on Monday, with focus shifting away from the now-completed China meetings and towards the USDA's next fundamental updates due out tomorrow and late next week. While still undoubtedly good, demand at this point is largely known unless China comes in for corn/wheat purchases, which has brought crop size and the supply side of the market now back to the forefront. There aren't expected to be a ton of surprises in the data, at least as far as tomorrow goes, but position/risk adjustment will still likely be a feature today amid what remains heavy fund length and with some slower-moving spec traders probably still not out of positions that were on for developments last week. Corn futures to start Tuesday morning are trading either side of unchanged, soybean futures are trading 2-3 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents lower.
Crude Oil is down $1.94 at $90.66
US Dollar is up at $101.32
Dow futures are up 83 points at 51,920
WEATHER:
- Models have expanded rainfall coverage a bit across the south-central US this week, with potentially heavy rains now set to impact a bulk of the area from AZ to TX and then north and east through the southern Plains and into the Midwest between now and the weekend. Totals look to range from 2-4" for most, but the models also now have heavier totals of 5-6" in some local areas across the Corn Belt, notably in parts of northern MO/southern IA and then over into the northern half of IL.
- Following heavy rains this week though, models are keeping the pattern fairly progressive and see a drier outlook ahead into next week then, which should open up some harvest windows across much of the Midwest.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- At the state level, IA is seeing the biggest delays in corn harvest relative to last year with progress 9% behind, while NC, OH and PA are all 6% behind and MI is 5% behind; IL is 6% ahead of last year and IN is just 2% behind last year. For soybeans, delays in the west have been well-advertised with IA 12% behind last year, MN and NE 5% behind, and SD 3% behind; in the east, OH is 17% behind last year and IN is 8% behind.
- For tomorrow's quarterly stocks and small grains update, traders see the report showing Sep 1 corn stocks at 1.918 bil bu, soybean stocks at 324 mil bu, and wheat stocks at 1.889 bil bu. Total 2026 wheat production is seen at 1.524 bil bu, while 2025 corn production is seen at 17.003 bil bu and 2025 soybean production is seen at 4.261 bil bu. The report is due out at 11am central time on Wednesday.
- The situation in the Middle East appears to be little changed, with US officials on Monday describing discussions through intermediaries as constructive but limited amid Iran's refusal to negotiate on its nuclear program. President Trump denied reports that he offered Tehran sanctions relief or access to frozen funds, while also again reiterating that the war could end quickly.
- South American consultancy AgRural said in a weekly update that soybean planting progress in Brazil had reached 3.4% complete as of last week, which is similar to the pace seen a year ago. First crop corn planting is seen at 34% complete, up from 32% last year. Overall, El Niño hasn't had a huge impact on planting to this point, but conditions have generally been wet in southern Brazil and drier to the north.
- Ukraine's Ag Minister said on Monday during an interview in Brussels that it was highly unlikely that any sort of ceasefire was to be reached with Russia in the coming months, saying that his country must prepare for the situation to remain as critical as it is now for some time. The Minister added that alternative routes have allowed Ukraine grain exports to run at around 45% of normal, but that that level risks some 30 million tons from being able to be shipped in the current marketing year.
- The EU's crop monitoring service MARS said this week that August rains, while a benefit to winter crops, were too little too late to help the already drought-stricken summer crops, dropping corn yields another 2% to 6.5 tons/hectare; this would be down 9% from last year and down 8% from the five-year average. The group also mentioned in the update that excessive rains in the Baltics had hampered harvest and fieldwork efforts.
- The USDA reported this week that it had caught its first wild screwworm fly on Friday in a trap along the US-Mexico border, signaling that while new cases north of the border have been muted, there's still a chance for continued spread. There are currently only two active cases of New World Screwworm in the US, both in horses in TX and NM. Screwworm cases haven't been found in wild animals and until now, the flies have largely evaded government surveillance efforts.
EXPORT NEWS:
- N/A
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
