Morning Markets: Corn: +0.25.
Beans: +1.50. Wheat: -10.75.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Happy Friday. Wheat futures are lower this morning to begin wrapping up the week, but its been a low volume, quiet overnight session for the other row crop markets, with corn and beans both near unchanged and with small trading ranges. Macro happenings have far and away been the driver of prices this week, but traders are curious now as to what the USDA is going to do with crop sizes and demand in its November update next Tuesday. Recent history shows there's seemingly a 50/50 chance that yield updates are either bullish or bearish, but there's also debate as to what will be done with demand, and more specifically exports, which will likely be a bigger determining factor for ending stocks than the production adjustments.
Corn futures to get Friday started are trading either side of unchanged, soybean futures are trading either side of unchanged, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 8-10 cents lower.
Crude Oil is up $0.26 at $90.70
US Dollar is up at $102.24
Dow futures are DOWN 511 points at 51,104
WEATHER:
- Light moisture continued to impact parts of the central and eastern Corn Belt on Thursday, but forecasts have things going back drier into the weekend and first part of next week once this low pressure system exits the northeast. The weekend will start with a bit of a frosty chill though the overnight hours, but temperatures look to stay warmer than average for early November and will warm back up into the 60s by the middle of next week.
- South American weather looks to remain little changed into the weekend and next week, as things aren't perfect but look to continue to be 'good enough' for most of the Brazilian Cerrado for at least another week to 10 days. Data floating around this week regarding lower than normal rainfall to this point in the season in Mato Grosso is accurate, but what rains have fallen so far have been timely, and like we've talked about previously, have been just enough to keep the crop progressing normally so far.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- Weekly crop data out of Argentina from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange this week showed corn planting progress has advanced to 50.5% complete, which continues to be well ahead of normal, while soybean planting was seen advancing to 4.7% complete, ahead of last year but in line with other previous years. For wheat, harvest advanced less than 2% on the week to 8.5% complete, which is behind last year but in line with average pace.
- The USDA's ag attaché to China said this week that it sees the country's 2026/27 soybean imports reaching 110 MMTs, slightly lower than the USDA's official current estimate of 115 MMTs. The group also said China soybean oil exports were likely to reach 1.35 MMTs in the season, which would be a new record.
- The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization said in a monthly update this week that global food prices during the month of October had fallen from the four-year highs seen in September as weak demand and prospects for peace in the Black Sea helped to ease price concerns. Of note, the group also said it now sees global wheat trade in 2026/27 declining nearly 9% from the previous season, while overall grain trade is expected to be down more than 3%.
- Weekly data from the USDA showed barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending October 31st totaled 282k tons, which was down more than 47% from the week prior; corn shipments at 82k tons were down 21% on the week and soybean shipments at 188k tons were down 56% on the week. STL barge freight rates were quoted at $22.50/short ton, which was unchanged from the week prior.
- The NASDAQ is trying to recover this morning, trading higher in the overnight market after seeing one of its worst trading days since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 on Thursday. Fears related to AI and data center construction following the Democratic election win this week have caused a sharp drop in values.
EXPORT NEWS:
- 101,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2026/2027 marketing year
- 136,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2026/2027 marketing year
Be careful!
Noah Richardson
Topflight Grain Seymour
202 N Main Street, Seymour IL 61875
nrichardson@tfgrain.com
www.topflightgrain.com
