Morning Markets: Corn: -1.
Beans: +2. Wheat: +1.75.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Happy Friday. It's been another quiet/choppy overnight trading session in Chicago to begin wrapping up the week, with the grain markets unchanged to lower and the soy complex unchanged to higher. Energy markets are also trading higher this morning and are right back at the highs again made earlier in the week, but the buying so far hasn't really spilled over into the ag space. With long liquidation already common throughout most of the last several days and it being a Friday, key for today will be likely be whether or not there's more sell pressure seen into the weekend or if fund traders have finally lightened their load enough for the markets to see some corrective action into next week. Harvest will roll on, but it's headlines regarding the two ongoing wars on the other side of the world that are likely to continue getting the most market attention until South American weather moves to the forefront in another few weeks. Corn futures Friday morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading either side of unchanged.
Trivia: What was candy corn originally called? (answer below)
Crude Oil is up $1.47 at $100.94
US Dollar is up at $101.69
Dow futures are down 420 points at 52,648
WEATHER:
- Overnight forecast changes through the first part of next week were again minimal overnight, with the models still in good agreement on an ongoing dry pattern remaining in place for much of the Corn Belt. Rains return to the far western part of the region from the southwest beginning on the weekend, and they're expected to last through the first half of next week, moving north into MN and northern WI by the end of the week.
- Temperatures decline marginally into next week, but still stay on the warmer side of average overall through at least the end of the week as there continues to be zero sign that the chilly air seen last weekend returns anytime soon.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- The USDA is scheduled to release monthly cattle on feed data this afternoon for the month of October. Traders see the report showing the US feedlot herd as of October 1 at 11.452 million head, which would be up just fractionally from a year ago. Placements in September are seen at 1.871 million head, down 7%, and marketings are seen at 1.518 million head, also down 7%. The report is out at 2pm central time.
- Touched on this yesterday afternoon, but ABIOVE on Thursday said they see Brazil soybean crush in the 2026/27 season reaching a record 66 MMTs. If accurate, this would increase oil and meal production both by about 4%, while exports are seen slightly lower on the year to allow for the elevated domestic use at 113 MMTs. The group sees meal exports increasing to 26.3 MMTs while oil exports are seen declining on the year to 1.9 MMTs on increased domestic biofuel blending.
- Weekly crop data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina showed corn planting has advanced to 39.8% complete this week, which remains well ahead of both average and last year despite the group mentioning that cool/wet weather in some areas had slowed fieldwork this week. Wheat conditions were mostly steady on the week at 62% G/EX, but the group did mention there was likely some frost damage done in some local areas over the last several days.
- The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady in next week's October FOMC meeting, with the CME's FedWatch tool this morning showing a more than 90% chance that rates remain unchanged in the current 3.75-4.00% range. The tool then shows a 76% chance that rates are hiked a quarter percentage point in the December meeting, but for now, the status quo is likely to hold steady through next week.
- Weekly data from the USDA shows barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending October 17th at 522k tons, up 31% from the week prior; corn shipments in the week at 141k tons were down 26%, and soybean shipments at 381k tons were up 84%. STL barge freight rates were quoted at $26.85/ton, down $2.00 from the week prior.
- President Trump this week announced plans to provide up to $150 million in federal funding to expand US refining capacity under the Defense Production Act, with the goal of increasing domestic gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel production. The Dept of Energy estimates the investment could eventually increase refining output by millions of gallons/day, though there was no timeframe given for when these increases would be expected.
EXPORT NEWS:
- N/A
Answer: Chicken Feed
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
