Morning Markets: Corn: +2.50.
Beans: +2.25. Wheat: +0.75.
All TFG locations will be closed on Thursday, November 27th and Friday, November 28th for the Thanksgiving Holiday. The Monticello office will be open from 8am-12pm on Friday, the 28th for any customer needs. Thank you and have a safe and Happy Thanksgiving!!
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Wednesday ag trade is quiet and in light volume again to start the last full trading session of the week this week, with the slow trade seen the previous two days likely to be even slower ahead of tomorrow's Thanksgiving holiday. China and headlines/rumors surrounding their relationship with the US and whether or not they're buying soybeans continues to be by far the largest talking point in the space and we just have little new to discuss here. Yes, China is back buying US beans; and yes, the daily sales flashes are a positive; but as we've found out this week, there clearly hasn't actually been a deal signed yet regardless of how much Trump and Bessent want to claim there has been, and until this happens (and frankly even after that if it does happen) China is not bound to anything. What business they've done over the past few weeks is a far cry from the 12 MMTs or 25 MMTs or any other target they may have thrown out there, and until there is evidence that is no longer the case, there will be a significant amount of pessimism regarding the situation. Corn futures to start Wednesday are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are trading either side of unchanged, and Chicago wheat futures are trading unchanged to a penny higher. Products are quietly mixed, soybean meal is unchanged to 50 cents lower and soybean oil is up 5-10 points. Outside markets are quietly mixed also, crude oil futures are down 10-20 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 50 points and the US$ index is up 10-20 points; the S&P500 is up 10 points and the NASDAQ is up 90 points.
Crude Oil is down $0.16 at $57.79
US Dollar is up at $99.73
Global Equities: Japan +0.0%, China +0.0%, and Europe +0.0%
Dow futures are up 44 points at 47,223
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn +0.0% and Wheat +0.0%
WEATHER:
- Weather focus in the US going into the long holiday weekend remains on the coming winter storm system that is expected to blanket a good majority of the Midwest with anywhere from a couple inches to 10-12 inches of snowfall Saturday into Sunday. A smaller system worked across the northern part of the region yesterday and overnight last night, with this system now over the Great Lakes this morning. Of note, the term smaller in this case refers more to the area affected than the moisture amounts provided; 24-hour snowfall data this morning shows totals still reaching the 10-12" mark through the Dakotas out of this system, but the snow impacted generally a smaller region than is expected to be hit this weekend.
- Elsewhere in the world, there is again little new this morning on the forecast for South America, as models continue to be in almost curiously good agreement on monsoonal rains continuing through northern and north-central Brazil the rest of the week this week, while southern Brazil and Argentina spend a few more days on the drier side. By the weekend though, both models see a system working out of southern Argentina and north into southern Brazil, providing good rainfall to almost all of the growing regions in these areas by the middle of next week.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- The CFTC released another round of delayed commitment of traders data yesterday afternoon with data for the week ending October 14th. The report showed traders in the week were sellers of 49,089 contracts of corn (-191,055), sellers of 38 contracts of soybeans (-391) and sellers of 14,387 contracts of Chicago wheat (111,743). The next update, with data for the week ending October 21st, will be out a week from today on December 2nd.
- The EIA is scheduled to release their weekly ethanol production/stocks report later this morning at its regular 9:30am central time, but none of the regular services have estimates available this morning. During this week last year, production averaged 1.110 mil bbls/day and stocks were seen at 22.563 mil bbls.
- Bloomberg reported on Tuesday that Kevin Hassett has emerged as the leading candidate to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell when his term ends in May of next year. Hassett will likely be seen as a more dovish, pro-growth chairman as opposed to Powell, which would likely increase the likelihood for additional rate cuts and lead to a looser financial landscape going through 2026.
- Cash sources familiar with the situation said on Wednesday that China had bought at least 10 more cargoes of soybeans from the US this week following a phone conversation between Trump and Xi on Monday. The sources said the purchases were all for January shipment and were off both the Gulf and the PNW.
- A Ukrainian farmers union said on Tuesday that high moisture and logistical issues caused by ongoing Russian missile and drone attacks have slashed the country's corn exports out of its Black Sea ports. A weekly report from the group this week showed corn exports so far in November at just 1.3 MMTs, which compares to 2.5 MMTs in November last year. Furthermore, traders say they see December exports down similarly, with projections at just 1.85 MMTs vs 2.6 MMTs last year.
As a reminder, there will be no CBOT ag trade tonight (Wednesday night), tomorrow (Thursday) or tomorrow night, with a hard open set for 8:30am central time Friday morning and then an abbreviated session after that which ends at 12:05pm central time. Normal trading hours will then resume Sunday evening
EXPORT NEWS:
- N/A
Noah Richardson
Topflight Grain Seymour
202 N Main Street, Seymour IL 61875
nrichardson@tfgrain.com
www.topflightgrain.com
