Morning Markets: Corn: -0.75 old & -1 new.
Beans: +0.75 old & +0.50 new. Wheat: +1 old & new.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Follow through buying from the Monday rally was the theme early last night, but corn and soybean futures have been slowly working backwards over the last several hours and now find themselves on either side of unchanged as traders try and assess the new fundamental outlook in the space provided by yesterday's China news. At some point, details are going to be made available and there's going to need to be some sort of actual evidence that purchases are being made, but for now, like was the case with Phase One more than six years ago, the prospect for significantly increased Chinese buying of US ag products is a new bullish fundamental the market didn't have seven days ago. The corn market to start Tuesday is trading unchanged to two cents higher, soybeans are trading 3-4 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 3-4 cents higher also.
Crude Oil is down $1.37 at $99.65
US Dollar is down at $99.04
Dow futures are down 21 points at 49,596
WEATHER:
- Satellite data shows good rains fell across the central and south-central portions of the Corn Belt over the last 24 hours, with a strip from eastern KS through central MO and into southern IL/IN seeing upwards of 3-5" in places throughout the region, while the surrounding area saw a more general half inch to two inches. Lighter, more scattered totals were seen further to the north, stretching from northern IL/IN up and over into WI/MN and the Dakotas.
- For today, the same frontal boundary that produced rain and storms across parts of the Plains and western Midwest on Monday will provide similar storm potential to the eastern and southeastern parts of the country, with models in fair agreement that the tail from this system lingers through the night tonight and into tomorrow morning. Model-derived precip totals for the next 24 hours are seen in a range of a few tenths to upwards of an inch or so for an area from east TX to southern IN/OH, with potential for locally heavier amounts mostly to the south along the Gulf.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- Yesterday's weekly crop progress update from the USDA showed corn planting progress across the US at 76% complete, which matches the pace seen last year and compares to the five-year average at 70%. At the state level, ND gained 33% on the week to 58% (7% behind last year), WI gained 31% to 62% (7% behind last year), and MI gained 30% to 47% (13% behind last year). For the I-states, IA is 88% planted, IL is 75% planted, and IN is 67% planted.
- Soybean planting as of Sunday was seen at 67% complete, which compares to 63% last year and the five-year average of 53%. At the state level, WI was able to plant 26% of its crop over the last week to get to 54% complete, while MI, MN, ND and SD all progressed 25% on the week. Of that group, MI remains the furthest behind last year at 37% complete (-13%), followed by SD at 59% complete (-9%).
- For wheat, yesterday's report showed a 1% decline in the G/EX rating for the winter crop to just 27%, which is the lowest rating for this particular week in the year since 1996; P/VP conditions were also up 3% on the week to 43%, driven by a 7% jump in KS to 58%, a 6% jump in CO to 58%, and a 5% jump in TX to 65%. Spring wheat planting advanced 20% on the week to 73% complete vs 66% average.
- Following sharply lower wheat production estimates out of Argentina last week for the coming season, Reuters reported Monday that a similar situation was likely to occur in Australia, as analysts see wheat planted area across the country falling some 10-20% from last year due to increased input costs from the war in Iran and dry weather that is likely to trim yield on the area that does get planted. Analysts say final production could fall by as much as 40% from the previous season if the most pessimistic outlooks come true.
- Possibly helping ease crude oil prices early this morning is Monday news confirmed by Treasury Secretary Bessent that the US had issued a temporary 30-day license allowing "the most vulnerable nations" to access Russian oil currently stranded at sea in a move to help alleviate some global supply pressures. It's unclear what nations this specifically applies to, but sources familiar say the licenses are limited in both scope and duration and not represent a more broad removal of Russian sanctions.
- Of note in regards to yesterday's ag rally, preliminary open interest data released by the CME Group for Monday shows open interest across the corn market fell some 12,000+ contracts, indicating someone still apparently has shorts to cover as the rally continues. Open interest increased in all the other markets of note on Monday, including the beans, meal, oil and both Chicago and KC wheat futures.
EXPORT NEWS:
- N/A
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
