Morning Markets: Corn: +5 old & +3 new.
Beans: +9.75 old & +5.75 new. Wheat: +3.50.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Ag futures are trying to bounce this morning following a bearish two days to start the week this week, with the corn and soybean markets higher and so far holding the lows made on Tuesday. Higher closes wouldn't be overly surprising today amid oversold conditions on the charts, but for now, we see any type of move as likely being corrective in nature amid an otherwise negative environment caused by Monday's government numbers. Corn futures this morning are trading 3-4 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 4-6 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents higher.
Crude Oil is up $0.69 at $61.84
US Dollar is down at $99.06
Dow futures are down 150 points at 49,259
WEATHER:
- Weather models this morning have rains for the southeast and southern portion of the Midwest through the day today and into tonight, while smaller disturbances then are still expected to impact the northern part of the country and areas around the Great Lakes the rest of the week and through the weekend. Neither rain or snowfall totals look to amount to a whole lot into next week, but the upper Midwest and northeast look to see ongoing chances at moisture almost daily into the first part of next week. On temperatures, the eastern US sees a brief shot of warmer air on Friday, but otherwise then looks to be in a colder pattern into the back half of the month while the west stays warm.
- Models are maybe marginally spottier on precip through Argentina tomorrow and Friday this morning, but are otherwise again little changed in their outlook for this weekend and into next week. Generally speaking, rains in Brazil stay east of the primary growing regions for the most part until early next week, when better moisture from the south is expected to work north and west into more of the main ag areas. Ten day precip anomaly maps are wetter this morning through central and northern areas, which if anything, may be a hinderance to early harvest efforts.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- This morning's weekly ethanol report from the EIA, with data for the week ending January 9th is expected to show production in the week between 1.088-1.150 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are seen between 23.00-24.175 mil bbls. The report is due out at its normal 9:30am central time this morning.
- Private South American export group Anec said on Tuesday that Brazilian soybean exports for the month of January are expected to hit a record at nearly four million tons, which is up more than a million tons from an estimate made last week. The group cited revised shipment schedules as reason for the adjustment, and also added that a slowdown in shipments caused by excessive rains in December meant part of the volumes that had been scheduled to ship last month were now going to be shipped in January.
- Preliminary monthly customs data out of the Chinese government released on Wednesday showed soybean imports in the final month of 2025 at 8.044 MMTs, which was down just under 1% from November. Cumulative imports in the 2025 calendar year were pegged at 111.83 MMTs, which would be up some 7% from from last year and a new annual record. Overall, monthly exports were up 6.6% compared to last year, while imports also rose 5.7% from last year.
- Touched on this briefly yesterday afternoon, but sources reported on Tuesday that China had proposed curbing some trade restrictions on Canadian canola and rapeseed product imports during a state visit by PM Mark Carney in exchange for the Canadian government lowering trade duties on Chinese EVs. Carney is scheduled to visit China this week, where trade is expected to be a major topic of discussion. The news helped rally soybean oil futures yesterday, with this market again seeing strength early in the day this morning.
- French farmers have again been staging protests this week in defiance of the much discussed EU-Mercosur trade deal, saying such an agreement threatens local ag markets by creating unfair competition with cheaper South American supplies. European farmers have been protesting the agreement for months, but a Friday approval by most member states, despite France's rejection, has led to an increase in efforts.
- Metals markets are trading higher again this morning and, in most cases, have scored new all-time highs again overnight as nearly unprecedented global geopolitical risk continues to rile markets and cause investors angst. Bets on increased manufacturing in China in 2026, especially in the AI sector, are also adding to the gains.
EXPORT NEWS:
- 136,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to South Korea during the 2025/2026 marketing year
- 334,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2025/2026 marketing year
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
