Morning Markets: Corn: +1.50 old & +1 new.
Beans: +11 old & +3.75 new. Wheat: +2.50.
All TFG locations will be closed Monday, February 16th for Presidents’ Day!
Topflight Grain is offering Free PL on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free PL on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Markets are higher this morning to get Thursday ag trade started, with soybeans once again pacing the gains on the above mentioned China headlines and as algo traders have had their way with the space so far in the overnight hours. For the most part, the rising tide has lifted all boats, with the grains and products also higher as the buying has percolated through the rest of the space. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 5-10 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading either side of unchanged.
Crude Oil is down $0.30 at $64.33
US Dollar is up at $96.86
Dow futures are up 142 points at 50,347
WEATHER:
- On the weather front this morning, models have coming precip for the eastern US a touch further north this morning than was seen yesterday, but are otherwise little changed from prior runs and continue to show a fairly sizeable low pressure system working across the southeastern US and the mid-south Saturday night and then through the weekend and into Monday. Totals are still like yesterday, with the highest totals still seen in the 2-3" ballpark, while the rest of the region sees a more general half inch to an inch.
- Models are wetter through northern Argentina this morning into the weekend and next week, but are otherwise little changed here as well overnight with improvements in soil moisture still expected to occur over the next two weeks. For Brazil, also not a lot of overnight change, as the models are still showing a bit lesser rainfall through the central part of the country over the next 10-15 days, while moisture improves across regions in the south.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- Wheat futures saw strength on Wednesday in part due to reports out of Ukraine that President Zelensky announced that there would not be elections while martial law and Russian occupation remained in place, and would only do so following a ceasefire and with credible security guarantees in place.
- Argentina's Rosario Grain Exchange said in a monthly update yesterday that rainfall over the next 10-15 days will be critical in determining a harvest floor and preventing further losses caused by dryness, but at the same time expressed optimism over the short-term forecast. The group raised their soybean production estimate a million tons from last month to 48 MMTs, and left their corn production estimate unchanged at 62 MMTs.
- Sources say corn and soybean prices in India have fallen by 10% and 4% respectively over the past week following an announced trade deal between them and the US that would open the door for imports of US soybean oil and DDGs, which is a corn-based byproduct of ethanol that is commonly used in animal feed. Farmer unions and opposition parties, angry over the proposed agreement, have protests scheduled for today.
- According to data from French crop body FranceAgriMer, soft wheat exports to non-EU countries in the current marketing year through December have totaled roughly four million tons, which is more than double the 1.53 MMTs seen through the same period in the previous marketing year. Total sales including within the EU in the period totaled 7.7 MMTs, up from 4.4 MMTs in the previous season. Data showed corn sales were also up in the current marketing year, totaling 2.34 MMTs vs 1.54 in the year prior.
- A drawdown in Brazilian ethanol stocks to the tune of around 20% from the year prior has led to prices surging to a three-year high as of the middle of the last month, which coupled with falling sugar prices, should encourage producers to rebuild inventories following harvest this year. Said an analyst with private firm Safras & Mercado, "Ethanol prices are running 30% to 40% higher than sugar, which justifies a higher ethanol allocation in 2026/27, when stocks could be replenished over the course of the year." Corn-ethanol production in Brazil is expected to increase to around 12 billion liters this year vs roughly 10 billion liters in the prior season.
- Equity markets are trading generally firmer this morning following a significantly better-than-expected jobs report on Wednesday that showed the US added 130,000 jobs in January compared with expectations for an increase of just 55,000. Unemployment fell to 4.3%, which was also slightly better than expected and down from the 4.4% figure printed in December.
EXPORT NEWS:
- Private exporters reported sales of 108,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to Egypt during the 2025/2026 marketing year.
- This morning's weekly export sales report, with data for the week ending February 5th, is expected to show corn sales in the week between 600k-1.5 mil MTs, soybean sales between 300k-1.1 mil MTs and wheat sales between 200k-500k MTs. On average, the grain sales would be similar to last week, while soybean sales would be up slightly.
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
