Morning Markets: Corn: -0.50 old & new.
Beans: +1.25 old & -0.50 new. Wheat: +7.
Tuesday, March 3rd at the Knights of Columbus in Lincoln with breakfast at 8:00am and meeting to follow.
Tuesday, March 3rd at the Monticello Community Building in Monticello with lunch at 12:00pm and meeting to follow.
Topflight Grain is offering Free PL on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free PL on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Wheat and bean oil futures have pushed to new highs for their moves this morning, but otherwise the ag space at the CBOT has been quiet overnight in much the same fashion as it was to end the day on Wednesday as traders continue to debate whether large global supplies or strong US demand should be the market factor most responsible for prices. We've said it before but will simply continue repeating that history would show if the bulls want markets to sustain any sort of prolonged upward price move, it’s almost certainly going to have to be the result of some sort of supply disruption as opposed to strengthening demand. Corn futures to get Thursday started are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 5-6 cents higher.
Crude Oil is up $1.12 at $66.17
US Dollar is up at $97.955
Dow futures are down 149 points at 49,573
WEATHER:
- Models see scattered, mostly light precip impacting a bulk of the US east of the Mississippi today and into Friday, but focus elsewhere will remain on the Plains and areas in the central part of the country where dry/windy conditions have created significant fire risks the last couple days that according to NASS's all hazards map for Thursday, are mostly still in place. The map has the most at-risk areas further to the south today compared to Wednesday, with red flag warnings and fire weather watches seen from eastern NM through TX/OK/KS and then into AR/MO.
- Little new for weather in South America this morning, as models see continued rains through southern and central Argentina today and into tomorrow, while drier weather holds for another couple days across central and west-central Brazil before rains are seen returning to these areas by the middle of next week. The moisture across Argentina has led to a cooler bias across a lot of the country, while most of Brazil's growing regions are seen near average temp-wise over the next 10 days.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- This morning's weekly ethanol report from the EIA, delayed a day this week for Monday's holiday, is expected to show average daily US production in the week ending February 13th between 1.050-1.120 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are seen between 25.10-25.84 mil bbls. On average, the production number would be down marginally from last week, while stocks would be slightly higher.
- In a Truth Social post on Wednesday, President Trump said the US had trade deficit had been reduced by nearly 80% since he took office last year, largely due to tariffs and trade policies imposed on foreign countries and companies. The post also mentions that the US was on track to go into a trade surplus this year "for the first time in many decades."
- Crude oil futures were up more than $2/bbl on Wednesday and are another 1.5% higher this morning on headlines out of Vice President JD Vance that Iran had failed to meet certain "red lines" in nuclear talks with the US, which led to a warning that President Trump could use military force if diplomacy fails.
- Ahead of an expected meeting between the Presidents of the two countries on Thursday to finalize a broader trade agreement, sources familiar with the situation said the US and Indonesia on Wednesday had signed trade and investment deals valued at more than $7 billion. The deals include purchases by Indonesian firms of 1 million tons of US soybeans, 1.6 million tons of corn, and 93,000 tons of cotton; Indonesia also agreed to purchase a million tons of wheat this year, with this total expected to increase to 5 million tons by 2030.
- Grain shipments out of Argentina have slowed this week due to another round of labor strikes. The country's maritime workers federation FESIMAF launched a two-day strike on Wednesday over planned labor reforms, while SOEA, the country's oilseed crushers' union, also said its workers would be going on a 24-hour strike today on Thursday. The strikes come as a result of a new labor bill that would limit worker's rights to strike, cap severance pay, tighten sick pay, and and limit workers' ability to claim damages after dismissal.
- Minutes from the Fed's January FOMC meeting showed generally broad agreement in holding rates steady in the 3.5-3.75% range, with a only a couple members favoring a quarter-point cut. However, there was notable divergence on future considerations, with some members indicating additional cuts would likely be appropriate if inflation continues to fall while others signaled that they would rather see this actually occur first before jumping to any sort of early conclusions. Furthermore, a few members also mentioned rate hikes could be warranted should inflation stall.
EXPORT NEWS:
- N/A
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
