Morning Markets: Corn: -3 old & -2.25 new.
Beans: -6 old & -4 new. Wheat: -3.25.
All TFG locations will close at noon Wednesday for the close of 2025 business!! We will remain closed Thursday for the New Year holiday!
Topflight Grain is offering Free PL on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We also are offering Free PL on corn delivered to Pierson based on space availability good thru August 31, 2026.
Grain Marketing Program signups are due by WEDNESDAY!! Contact your originator with any questions or if interested in signing up!
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Where the Christmas holiday week started and mostly stayed in the green last week, the New Year's holiday week has started with an opposite tone across the CBOT, as markets are lower pretty well across the board to start Monday morning. Corn futures are 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are 4-6 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is 3-4 cents lower. Market data for Monday will feature a delayed weekly ethanol production and stocks report from the EIA this morning at the regular 9:30am central time, while other notable reports this week include both weekly export sales and CFTC commitment of traders, which should both be caught back up after this week. Due to the New Year's Eve holiday this week, CBOT ag markets will be closed Wednesday night, Thursday, and Thursday night, and will re-open for a normal day of trade again at 8:30am central time on Friday. Unlike last week, Wednesday will see a full day of trade and close at the normal 1:20pm central time.
Crude Oil is up $1.43 at $58.17
US Dollar is up at $98.08
Global Equities: Japan +0.0%, China +0.0%, and Europe +0.0%
Dow futures are down 59 points at 48,939
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn +0.0% and Wheat +0.0%
WEATHER:
- Unseasonably warm weather experienced by most across the Midwest over the weekend has given way this morning to some cooler air which looks to hang out in the eastern/northeastern US for several days this week while the western 2/3s of the country stays generally warmer than average. Precip-wise though, models remain in generally good agreement that moisture through the bulk of the Midwest stays limited this week, while the northeast and areas around the Great Lakes look to see near-daily chances at precip.
- South of the equator, not a lot new for Argentina this morning as precip looks to remain mostly limited this week and temperatures, at least for the first half of the week, will be on the hotter side of normal. Brazil, meanwhile, will see some heat issues in the far eastern growing regions, but otherwise temperatures are more normal here and rainfall looks to expand back into these areas by the end of the week and next weekend. Ten day forecasts call for plenty of rains across most all of Brazil, but it’s the ongoing lack of forecast precip for Argentina that will become a bigger concern in the next 15-20 days should it hold.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- With most of the world on holiday the past several days, there is not a lot this morning in the way of new news. What limited headlines there were the past few days were largely macro related, and included ongoing extreme volatility in the metals markets, and to a lesser extent, energy markets, as well as continued updates on the Russia/Ukraine situation which seemingly has a lot of chatter surrounding it but little in the way of actual progress.
- Most all precious metals futures markets are trading sharply lower at this writing this morning following higher trade to start the overnight session last night; silver, platinum, and palladium have all scored new contract highs in the overnight markets, while gold got right next to it's high made last week and copper returned almost to the levels that were being traded before Trump announced new trade duties on the metal in late July.
- Following a Sunday meeting at Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort in FL, the President said that he and Ukrainian President Zelensky were "getting a lot closer" to a peace deal to end the war, but added that the same two issues of security guarantees and territorial boundaries that have held discussions up to this point still remain. There was no deadline set for next steps, but Trump mentioned that it would be clear in the next couple weeks whether the current round of negotiations would succeed.
- Russia's states statistics service Rosstat said on Friday, citing preliminary data, that Russia's wheat harvest in 2025 totaled 91.4 MMTs, which is up from 82.6 MMTs in 2024. Data also showed barley harvest in the year at 19.7 MMTs (up from 16.7 in 2024) and 12.6 MMTs of corn (down from 13.9 in 2024); legume harvest was up more than double from 2024 at 8.0 MMTs.
- According to a report by a Chinese state media outlet, Beijing earlier this month approved revisions to its foreign trade laws that formally expand the government's authority to intervene in imports and exports when it cites "national sovereignty, security, or development interests." As it pertains to US ag, the move would seem to further illustrate that China's buying of US goods is conditional and policy driven as opposed to purely based on market conditions.
- Also out of China from over the weekend, media outlets are reporting that China's grain production in 2025 likely hit a new record at 714.88 MMTs, which is up more than 1% from 2024 and generally in line with figures produced by the country's National Bureau of Statistics. Despite challenging weather throughout the year, those familiar with the situation say increases were partly the result of the rapid expansion of genetically modified crop varieties, which Beijing first approved last year.
EXPORT NEWS:
- Private exporters reported sales of 100,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to Egypt during the 2025/2026 marketing year.
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
