Morning Markets: Corn -4 old & -4.25 new.
Beans -0.75 old & new. Wheat -3.25.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. CBOT ag markets are quietly lower this morning, with corn futures the downside leader on a reversal of yesterday's up move. Crop conditions continue to point to record supply potential this fall, which as we've talked about ad nauseum the past few weeks, has limited any sort of upside in prices and will likely continue doing so in the short term. Remember though, it is a 'futures' market, and at some point the fundamental story will shift away from the massive crop sitting in fields across the Midwest to something else, which will likely determine the next market move; in the meantime, choppy/sideways is our best guess from here, with a lot of the known bearish supply story priced in. Corn futures to start Tuesday are trading 4-5 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 3-4 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is also trading 5-6 cents lower. Products are lower as well; soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton and soybean oil is down around 10 points. Outside markets are mixed again this morning, crude oil futures are trading either side of unchanged, the Dow Jones index is down 10 points, and the US$ index is also unchanged; the S&P500 is up 20 points, and the NASDAQ is up 130 points.
Crude Oil is down $0.31 at $66.67
US Dollar is even at $98.06
Global Equities: Japan +0.1%, China +1.6%, and Europe +0.2%
Dow futures are down 4 points at 44,688
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn +0.1% and Wheat -0.2%
WEATHER:
- Deliveries for Tuesday according to the CME Group included 204 contracts of soybeans, 111 contracts of soybean meal, 29 contracts of corn, 5 contracts of Chicago wheat, and 3 contracts of KC wheat.
- Weekly crop progress data out yesterday afternoon from the USDA showed corn conditions in the week ending July 13th holding steady at 74% G/EX; at the state level, MI fell 7% to 49% on the week, while MO and PA each improved 7%, and ND improved 6%. The report also showed the amount of the crop silking at 34%, while 7% of the crop has reached the dough stage.
- For soybeans, G/EX conditions improved 4% on the week to 70%, which was the largest week to week jump since August 2023. At the state level, KS declined 4%, while MO was up 7%, IL and ND were up 6%, and LA was up 5%. The report also showed 47% of the crop blooming and 15% of the crop setting pods.
- NOPA is set to release updated monthly US soybean crush data this morning at 11am central time; traders see the report showing US crush in June at 185.195 mil bu, which would be down 4% from May's figure but still up more than 5% from June of last year. The report is also expected to show soybean oil stocks as of the end of the month at 1.374 bil lbs, which would be nearly identical to May but down more than 15% from last year.
- France's farm ministry on Tuesday said they see the country's soft wheat crop in the current season at 32.6 MMTs, which is nearly 30% above last year's total and 2.4% above the current five-year average. Barely production is seen up nearly 20% from last year at 11.8 MMTs, and rapeseed production is seen up around 8% from last year at 4.2 MMTs. The ministry also added that it had increased its corn area estimate from 1.48 million hectares to 1.59 mil.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- Overnight weather forecasts for the Midwest trended wetter into next week but were otherwise unchanged for the next few days and are continuing to call for widespread rainfall across the Midwest the rest of this week and into the weekend. Temperatures the rest of the week will be warm for another couple days in the east but will be well below average in the west as cooler air works its way across the mid-section of the US.
- Week two precip maps are in fair agreement on a continuation of the dry west/wet east that has been in place for the last couple weeks, which will limit crop stress into the end of July. The EU forecast for the preiod is drier in the Gulf area than the GFS is, but otherwise, the two have similar outlooks for the Midwest. Extended temp forecasts show more mild air in the central US, while areas to both the east and the west look to remain warm.
EXPORT NEWS:
- N/A
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
