Morning Markets: Corn: +1.25 old & +0.75 new.
Beans: +7.75 old & +6 new. Wheat: +2.25.
All TFG locations will be closed TOMORROW! July 3rd in observance of Independence Day!
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Ongoing short liquidation has ag markets higher again this morning to start what is expected to be a somewhat fleeting session in terms of interest, with the three-day holiday celebration for America's 250th birthday looming ahead and nobody wanting to be on the wrong end of a forecast flip or Trump post over the next few days. The liquidation of fund longs over the last month likely pushed things too far to the downside, and we see this week's small rally as bringing prices back closer to fair value with forecasts not perfect and there seemingly being little weather risk premium present otherwise. Demand is steady if not good, but if markets are going to put in a sizeable summer rally, it's likely going to have to be the result of supply disruption and not just good use. Corn futures to start Thursday morning are trading 2-3 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 5-7 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-4 cents higher.
Crude Oil is down $1.06 at $67.52
US Dollar is down at $100.77
Dow futures are up 140 points at 52,808
WEATHER:
- Weather forecasts for the long holiday weekend are similar to previous days this week, with the models in decent agreement on thunderstorm activity continuing across the northern and north-central parts of the Corn Belt for another few days, while temperatures also remain mostly above normal. As high pressure works west into next week, the models show these storms moving more south and east into the central part of the country, while temperatures also likely moderate to more normal levels in the east by the middle/end of next week.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- Thursday's delivery slate from the CME Group includes 169 contracts of soybean oil, 197 contracts of rough rice, 262 contracts of corn, 38 contracts of KC wheat, 19 contracts of oats, 30 contracts of soybeans, and 6 contracts of Chicago wheat.
- This morning's weekly export sales report for the week ending June 25th is expected to show old crop corn sales in the week between 500k-1.1 mil MTs and old crop soybean sales between 300k-650k MTs. For the new crop, corn sales are seen between 400k-1.1 mil MTs, soybean sales are seen between 350k-900k MTs, and wheat sales are seen between 300k-600k MTs.
- USDA released monthly soybean crush and corn grind data on Wednesday. The reports showed US May soybean crush at 213 mil bu, which was below the average trade guess and down 2% from the April figure. Soybean oil stocks as of the end of the month also missed trade expectations and were seen at 2.315 bil lbs, down 5% from April but up 23% from last year. On corn grind, USDA pegged corn use for ethanol during May at 472 mil bu, which was up 10% from April and up 6% from last year.
- Private US ag consultancy StoneX on Wednesday raised their safrinha corn forecast in Brazil a little over 1% from a previous estimate to 107.5 MMTs. Total production was also increased more than a million tons from their last estimate to 138.4 MMTs. The group also raised their soybean production estimate for Brazil slightly to 182.1 MMTs, and that it would give initial 2026/27 predictions next month in August.
- Reuters reported this week, citing provisional trade ministry data, that pace analysis shows Indian corn exports could reach a three-year high in 2026, as shipments through the first five months of the year were boosted by price discrepancies compared to exporters in the US and South America. Data shows exports through May at 1.08 million tons, which compares to just 228,844 tons through the same period last year.
- France's ag ministry said this week that record heat during June likely took some 30% off of corn production estimates for the season, and also likely caused significant losses to production of carrots, hops and poultry. The ministry also said wildfire risks could produce additional losses, with some 1,200 hectares in the southern part of the country catching fire just this week.
- USDA AG Secretary Brooke Rollins on Wednesday announced $500 million in new funding for the expansion of domestic fertilizer production following disruptions caused by the war in Iran. Rollins said the funds would be used to expand and upgrade existing US fertilizer plants, as well as build new ones, though no timeline was given on when these expansions were expected to begin.
EXPORT NEWS:
- N/A
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
