Morning Markets: Corn: -2 old & -0.25 new.
Beans: -4 old & -2.25 new. Wheat: -6.
Starting TODAY, Topflight Grain will be offering Free PL on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through Aug, 31, 2026.
We will also be offering Free PL on corn delivered to Pierson based on space availability good thru August 31, 2026.
Christmas Open House is coming up! 11am-1pm!
Cisco – Tuesday, 12/16
Seymour (Venison BBQ & Chili) & Pierson – Wednesday, 12/17
Emery & Kruger – Thursday, 12/18
Grain Marketing Program signups are due by 12/31/25!! Contact your originator with any questions or if interested in signing up!
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Ag markets are mostly low to start mid-week trade in Chicago, with report-based buying seen in the corn market on Tuesday not able to make it into Wednesday's session at least so far through the overnight hours. Elsewhere, chart-related selling in the beans and meal looks to again be a market feature today, with both having taken out yesterday's lows already and the beans still seeming like they're going to make a run at the open chart gaps made in late-October. With the USDA punting yesterday to the January report and there only likely being another 5-10 sessions of normal trade activity before the holidays get here, it is this technical trading that, in our opinion, likely drives a lot of the market direction between now and that previously mentioned January report. Otherwise its China, biofuel policy and South American crops that remain the other main drivers price into 2026, and we aren't overly optimistic that we get many tradable updates on any of these fronts in the short term. Corn futures to start Wednesday are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 3-5 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 5-6 cents lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down $2-3/ton and soybean oil is up 30-40 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up 30-40 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 30 points, and the US$ index is down 10-15 points; the S&P500 is unchanged and the NASDAQ is down 50 points.
Crude Oil is up $0.16 at $58.41
US Dollar is down at $99.085
Global Equities: Japan +0.0%, China +0.0%, and Europe +0.0%
Dow futures are down 13 points at 47,600
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn +0.0% and Wheat +0.0%
WEATHER:
- Following another round of snows across parts of ND and MN on Tuesday, weather models for the Midwest this morning are continuing to show several more rounds of winter clipper systems possibly impacting the upper and central parts of the Midwest the rest of the week this week and through through weekend. Accumulations out of the rest of these systems are still seen ranging from 2-5" depending on the area, with the EU model this morning honing in a bit on a narrow corridor from SD through central IA and IL and into southern IN that looks to see the heaviest of this snow.
- Models see similar outlooks for Brazil and Argentina this morning compared to what has been seen the rest of the week also, with there continuing to be little in the way of crop threats over at least the next two weeks. Good rains will continue across most all of Brazil's growing regions into the week of Christmas, while the models are continuing to keep meaningful precip in Argentina north of the main growing regions, which is beneficial in allowing planting to advance amid too much moisture in a lot of places through September and October.
- If there is an area of potential concern, it would be in southern Brazil where, like we mentioned previously, farmers have begun to report assumed yield losses in recent days due to hot/dry conditions. Coming moisture will help to alleviate some of this stress, but there are likely earlier planted crops in some local areas that have already had their top end nipped by the arid conditions. Remember, some places in Brazil will likely have beans that have reached maturity at some point in the next 20-30 days.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- The CME Group for Wednesday assigned another contract of soybean meal for delivery overnight, along with 8 contracts of soybean oil and 11 contracts of KC wheat.
- Yesterday's WASDE update was near trader expectations for both the beans and the wheat, while corn ending stocks came in just slightly lower than was expected on a 125 mil bu increase in exports. Generally speaking, there wasn't anything in the report that would have significantly altered the fundamental outlook for any of the three crops, which now turns the page to the January report, where final production updates will be made for the US.
- The CFTC released another round of catch-up commitment of traders data on Tuesday, with numbers for the week ending November 4th; the report showed funds in the week were buyers of another 17,989 contracts of corn (-71,516), buyers of 60,193 contracts of soybeans (+178,683) and buyers of 4,520 contracts of Chicago wheat (-70,613). In the soy products, funds bought 58,790 contracts of meal (+13,039) and sold 22,813 contracts of soybean oil (-21,258).
- The USDA is set to release delayed monthly corn and soybean crush data (reports typically out on the first of the month) for the months of September and October this afternoon at 2pm central time. Traders see the reports showing US Sep soybean crush at 205.4 mil bu, while the Oct figure is seen at 234.2 mil bu; if accurate, both would be up from the same month last year. Bean oil stocks as of the end of October are estimated at 1.717 bil lbs, which would be up just under 8% from last year. We do not have any trade guesses for corn used for ethanol in either of the months.
- Private industry group Coceral said on Tuesday, in its first estimates of the year, that it sees EU grain production in 2026 totaling 296.7 MMTs, which if accurate, would be down from a figure of 306.6 MMTs in 2025. The group sees soft wheat production next year at 143.9 MMTs vs 147.5, while corn production is seen at 58.9 MMTs vs 57.1 this year. For wheat, the group also mentioned that though soil moisture conditions are favorable at this point, it will likely be difficult for crops to achieve the same exceptional yields seen this year.
- Economists and investors are preparing for a third straight interest rate cut out of the US Federal Reserve later this afternoon, with the CME's FedWatch tool this morning still showing a nearly 90% chance that benchmark lending rates are lowered another quarter percentage-point. Its possible the proverbial buck then stops there however, as odds for another subsequent cut in January are just above 20%. The decision looks to be one of the more contentious in recent years, as policy makers have become divided over concerns regarding lingering inflation.
EXPORT NEWS:
- 136,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2025/2026 marketing year
- 119,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2025/2026 marketing year
- 212,000 metric tons of soybeans received in the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2025/2026 marketing year
- 120,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to Poland during the 2025/2026 marketing year
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
