Morning Markets: Corn: -2.25 old & -0.75 new.
Beans: +5.75 old & -3.50 new. Wheat: -0.25.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Happy Friday. Markets are mixed at the CBOT this morning, with the grains trading either side of unchanged and the beans and meal trading higher in generally a continuation of the trade seen the past couple days. We've eluded to it in passing this week, but key for Friday and the first part of next week with as much unknown as there still is surrounding both the China and biofuels situations will be that traders don't decide to bank profits on this rally; we can't rule out a buy the rumor, sell the fact type trade, which the market seems to be getting set up for. Corn futures to start Friday are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 4-6 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents higher.
Crude Oil is down $0.82 at $62.47
US Dollar is down at $97.67
Dow futures are up 269 points at 49,267
WEATHER:
- Weekend weather across the Midwest looks to feature a smaller storm system that will provide 1-2" of snowfall to the northeast, but the rest of the area will see mostly continued dry conditions and warming temps, culminating in daytime highs pushing into the upper 50's across a lot of the region. Things likely remain quieter then into the middle of next week, before models see storm chances again for the central US and the southeast the back half of next week.
- Following decent rains the last couple days, this morning's EU model run is drier across Argentina the next 48 hours or so before rains are seen returning again Sunday/Monday and into the first part of next week. For Brazil, there will be pockets of dryness in the south and southwest, but otherwise, regular rains likely continue across most of the rest of the country, as models are again little changed this morning from previous runs in the short term.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- StatisticsCanada is scheduled to release quarterly stocks data at 7:30am central time this morning. Traders see the report showing all wheat stocks in the country as of December 31 at 26.581 MMTs, which would be up from 25.964 MMTs on Dec 31, 2024. Canola stocks are seen at 15.758 MMTs vs 13.223 MMTs previously.
- Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev said on Thursday that 97% of winter crops were rated in normal condition as of February 5th, which compares to 87% on the same day last year, signaling a good harvest is likely ahead. Last year, extreme weather in the country's south negatively impacted crops there and led to a smaller harvest.
- Monthly data from Brazil's Trade Ministry, released on Thursday, showed the country's soybean exports in January at 1.877 MMTs, which is up nearly 76% from the same month last year. Corn exports at 4.247 MMTs were up 18% from the year prior, while meal exports at 1.974 MMTs were up 14% on the year prior. As new crop supplies become available, private export group Anec sees the February soybean total coming in at 11.42 MMTs, which if accurate, would be up from 9.73 MMTs exported in February of 2025.
- Relatedly, local cash sources and available data show FOB offers in Brazil have tanked some 40-60 cents this week on the US board rally, which should further exaggerate the growing difference in costs between supplies there and supplies from the US. Economically, it makes little to no sense for China not to buy cheaper Brazilian beans, which has made the prospect of an additional 8 MMTs in Chinese purchases between now and September a rather large question mark.
- According to a report from the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the global grain stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to rise some 32% in the 2025/26 season, which would be the biggest year/year increase in some 25 years and, according to them, is the result of higher than expected wheat production in several places like Argentina, Canada and the EU.
- Weekly data from the USDA shows barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending January 31st totaled just 189k tons, which was down 67% on the week prior as ice and cold weather continued to impact logistics; corn shipments in the week totaled just 87k tons, down 66%, while soybean shipments totaled just 91k tons, which was down 68%. STL barge freight rates in the week were quoted at $24.66/short ton, which was up 32 cents on the week prior.
- After confusion earlier in the week, it appears teams from the US and Iran are set to meet in Oman today to discuss Iran's nuclear program. Spokespeople from the Iranian said on Friday though that the talks had not yet officially started, and would only do so possibly after a meeting between US negotiators and Oman's foreign minister. Crude oil futures are calm this morning, but could see further volatility into the end of the week based on any potential headlines regarding the situation today.
EXPORT NEWS:
- N/A
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
