Morning Markets: Corn: -3.50 old & -4.25 new.
Beans: -5 old & -4 new. Wheat: -1.75.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Overnight selling has continued across the CBOT so far to start Tuesday trade, with the bean market having taken the lead role to the downside early this morning but currently still holding the lows made the last couple weeks. This will be key for today and the rest of the week this week, while spot corn futures need to hold the 4.10 area. To start the morning, corn futures are trading 3-4 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 4-5 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents lower.
Crude Oil is up $1.14 at $60.64
US Dollar is up at $98.96
Dow futures are up 5 points at 49,814
WEATHER:
- Not a lot new on the weather front this morning, as models continue to favor the upper Midwest and areas around the Great Lakes in terms of precip potential this week, while the southeast sees some light rainfall potential tonight into tomorrow. Temperatures also cool off a bit after today, with the eastern half of the US then expected to trend cooler into the weekend and next week while the west stays warmer but not quite as warm as the past couple weeks.
- Forecasts for Argentina see multiple rounds of rains possible between now and the end of the week, with totals possibly reaching 1-2" by the end of the week. Better rains are still expected further to the north and west, while rains are also still expected to fill back in through south-central Brazil by the end of the week as well. Far southern Brazil will be on the drier side, but like we talked about yesterday, there is little to no concern with the current forecast.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- Deliveries were similar again this morning according to the CME Group, with another 26 contracts of soybeans assigned, along with 30 contracts of soybean oil and 6 contracts of rough rice.
- While yesterday's national average corn yield number obviously stole the bulk of headlines, there were six states that either tied or broke their all-time record including IN, MN, WI, NE, and both Dakotas. For soybeans, seven states either set or tie records, including IA, MN, NE, KS, AR, MS, and WI. Generally speaking, additional declines were seen in the east for both crops, but these were more than offset by stronger-than-expected yields in the west and southwest.
- Sources familiar with the matter reported on Tuesday that Sinograin sold all 1.1 MMTs of the soybeans they had offered for auction yesterday, which was a better rate than any of the three auctions held previously in December. Said one trader, "Some crushing plants are a bit short on soybeans for March and April so they're buying from government auctions. Overall, there is ample supply of beans in the market." In total, China's state stockpiler has sold around 2 MMTs over the past 5-6 weeks.
- Shipping data out of both Argentina and Australia for the month of December show Chinese purchases up significantly from recent history, with the monthly figure from Australia the best since spring of 2024 and the figure from Argentina the best since 1997. Traders say that the imports could be signaling a growing appetite for purchases by the Chinese after back to back massive harvests in 2024 and 2025 limited overall buying.
- Brazil's CONAB, who will have updated monthly crop figures on Thursday, showed in a weekly crop progress update that soybean harvest in the country had reached 0.6% complete as of Saturday, which compares to 0.3% on a similar day last year and the five-year average of 1% complete. First crop corn harvest was seen at 2.4% complete, compared to 2.3% last year and the five-year average of 4.2%.
- Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister said on Monday that Russian drones attacked a Panamanian flagged ship that was waiting to enter port to load oil extracted from oilseeds, with one crew member injured in the attack. A second ship was also attacked leaving the port loaded with corn.
- Private Russian consultancy IKAR raised the country's wheat export forecast from 44.1 MMTs previously to 46.5 MMTs, but warned that the target may potentially be hard to achieve due to poor crops in southern growing regions. Russia's marketing year runs through June 30th, and the country exported roughly 44 MMTs of wheat in the previous marketing year.
- In tariff news from Monday, President Trump said that, effective immediately, the US would begin charging an additional 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran and the move was final and non-negotiable. There weren't a lot of details provided, but many critics have already questioned the legality of such a move.
EXPORT NEWS:
- 168,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2025/2026 marketing year
- 152,404 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2025/2026 marketing year
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
