Morning Markets: Corn: -1.
Beans: -0.25. Wheat: +2.75.
State Bank of Bement will be passing out Harvest Bags Tomorrow! 10/21 from 1:30pm-3:30pm in Bement
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Ag markets are seeing some turn-around-Tuesday type trade this morning for the most part after extending losses again early last night, with most of the space besides meal trading in the green at this writing on the back of strength in the global energy markets. It's become more of a back-burner story of late, but elevated fuel prices around the world as a result of ongoing tensions in the Middle East have continued to provide some measure of support to corn and soybeans via biofuel demand, and this appears to be most of the reasoning for the higher trade today. That said, there's a lot of day left, and markets still have their losing streaks intact until proven otherwise. Corn futures to start Tuesday are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 4-5 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 4-6 cents higher.
Trivia: Highest-grossing new movie released in 1985? (answer below)
Crude Oil is up $1.20 at $99.74
US Dollar is down at $101.73
Dow futures are down 53 points at 52,129
WEATHER:
- Rainfall maps trended wetter for the southern third of Brazil overnight, but were otherwise little changed elsewhere. Light rains throughout the central part of the country are expected to keep planting progress at or ahead of average, while the only real area of concern remains in the north, where El Niño related dryness has already started to have an impact on the Amazon and other surrounding areas. Argy weather, outside of being on the cooler side, continues to be mostly ideal for early season crop development.
- The US forecast is little changed this morning, with the models still in good agreement on little if any rainfall falling across the majority of the Midwest into the first part of next week as high pressure stays in place across the eastern US. Models still see troughing in the west and southwest flow bringing systems out of Mexico and into the Plains, but this moisture doesn't look to make it far enough north or east to be major hindrance to harvest progress. Temperatures stay above average at least into the middle of next week.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- At the state level, ND saw the biggest gain in corn harvest progress of 19% to 42% complete, while SD was up 14% to 29%, MN was up 13% to 38%, and all three of IL, IN and IA were up 12% to 63%, 46% and 26%. Relative to average, IA continues to be the furthest behind, down 34%, followed by SD and MI who are both down 18%.
- For soybeans, SD saw the biggest increase on the week, gaining 31% to 78%, while IA and NE were up 26% to 57% and 52%, and ND was up 19% to 79%. Relative to average, NE continues to be the furthest behind, down 19%, while IA is 17% behind, and MI is 14% behind.
- In a notice sent late Monday evening, the White House announced it would be making $8 billion available for one-time payments to farmers as part of what the administration is calling the 'Harvest Fuel Relief' program. The notice says commodity-specific payment rates will be available in November and that the program will operate similarly to the Farmer Bridge Assistance program that was rolled out last winter. Pre-filled applications are said to be available online to producers with a Login.gov account linked to the USDA.
- Overnight reports from Iran's IRGC claiming that it shot down a US drone over the Strait of Hormuz have oil and energy markets higher this morning, with crude scoring new contract highs as hostilities in the region continue to show no sign of abating. The Houthis also claimed additional attacks on Saudi energy assets overnight. Dec crude is up around $2/bbl this morning and is trading just above the $100 mark.
- China imported 360,878 MTs of US soybeans during the month of September, up from the 0 tons taken in the month last year, while shipments from Brazil were down a little more than 2% from last year during the month at 10.7 MMTs. Cumulative US shipments through the first nine months of the year now stand at 11.06 MMTs, down 34% from the same period last year, while shipments from Brazil are up 3.4% on the year at 65.84 MMTs.
- Similar to the sentiment relayed out of Western Australia last week, the Grain Industry Association of Victoria said following a crop tour that the state is on track for major yearly increase in wheat and barley production; the group found wheat yields on the tour that were up some 52% from a year ago, while barely yields were found to be up some 37% despite less-than-perfect weather throughout the course of the growing season.
EXPORT NEWS:
- Private exporters reported sales of 612,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during MY 2026/2027.
Answer: Back to the Future. $193.35 million domestically.
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
