Morning Markets: Corn: -2.75 old & -2.25 new.
Beans: -3.50 old & -2.50 new. Wheat: -10.75 old & new.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. It's been another choppy, two-sided overnight session of trade at the CBOT, with corn and soybean futures hovering near unchanged at this writing while the wheat market extends losses on additional downside pressure this morning in the world energy markets. The breadth of the selling in the wheat market is a bit surprising given another fall in crop ratings yesterday afternoon, but just further goes to show that broader macro happenings seem to still be in control of the space for the most part amid limited fresh crop fundamentals in the early part of the growing season. Corn futures to start Wednesday are unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are either side of unchanged, and the Chicago wheat market is 7-9 cents lower.
Crude Oil is down $4.76 at $89.13
US Dollar is down at $99.06
Dow futures are up 62 points at 50,609
WEATHER:
- Little new this morning on the forecast front, as models continue to be in good agreement on high pressure across the northeastern US remaining the dominant feature in the pattern the next several days. This ridging likely keeps most of the Corn Belt on the warmer/drier side into June, while areas on the periphery both to the south and to the west look to continue seeing near-daily chances at rain/thunderstorms. Rainfall totals via the EU model this morning in the south are seen ranging from another 1-3" generally speaking through the end of the weekend and into next week, while the west sees a lesser 0.5-1" possible.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- Yesterday afternoon's weekly crop progress update showed corn planting across the US at 86% complete, which matches last year's pace and compares to the five-year average at 83%. At the state level, MI advanced 28% on the week to 75% complete, CO advanced 23% to 88% complete, and ND advanced 22% to 80% complete. IN remains the biggest laggard of the I-states at 76%, while IA is 94% complete and IL is 86% complete.
- Soybean planting across the US was seen at 79% complete, which compares to 75% last year and the five-year average of 68%. At the state level, MI advanced 27% on the week to 64% complete, ND gained 22% to 63% complete, and WI gained 21% to 75% complete. For the I-states, IN is 74% planted, while IA is at 80% and IL is at 84%.
- And lastly for wheat, winter wheat conditions in the G/EX fell another 1% on the week to just 26%, which compares to 50% last year and is the lowest reading for the week since records began in 1986. At the state level, MT dropped 7% on the week to just 19%, while ID, MI and WA all fell 6% on the week. As a nation, P/VP increased 1% on the week to 44%.
- In a monthly update yesterday, the European Commission lowered the bloc's grain forecasts for the coming season, dropping its soft wheat forecast from 127.3 MMTs previous to 126.9 MMTs. Dropping barely forecast from 52.9 MMTs to 51.75 MMTs, and dropping corn from 61.2 MMTs to 60.35 MMTs. Meanwhile, oilseed production was adjusted higher on the month, with rapeseed production seen at 20.85 MMTs vs 20.8 previous and sunflower seed production seen at 8.9 MMTs vs 8.8 previous.
- Along similar lines, a Ukrainian farmers union on Tuesday pegged wheat production in the country between 22 and 23 MMTs, which if accurate, would be similar to the production seen last year. The group added that wheat stocks could possibly reach 4.5 MMTs as of June 1 vs 2.6 MMTs seen a year ago.
- Sources familiar with the matter reported this week that China has issued fresh export licenses for urea fertilizer after previously cutting off exports in March due to the ongoing war in Iran, possibly signaling an easing of the domestic supply situation despite the Strait of Hormuz remaining mostly shuttered.
- Officials from Mexico and the US are set to begin discussions in Mexico City today regarding trade and the relationship between the two regarding the USMCA agreement, ahead of what are still expected to be more formal meetings on the matter later in July. It's unclear whether any material changes are expected this week, but a sour tone between the two could be taken as a negative given the sheer size of Mexican demand for US ag products.
EXPORT NEWS:
- N/A
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
