Morning Markets: Corn: -1.75 old & -1.25 new.
Beans: +7 old & +2.50 new. Wheat: +1.75.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Mixed ag trade has been seen through the overnight hours to get Wednesday started, as an ongoing lack of fresh news has turned attention back to the Middle East, where fresh military action this week between the US and Iran has again added risk premium to energy markets and their proxies (bean oil). That said, we don't see the ag's following the Middle East headlines quite as closely now as they did a couple months ago, and would expect that weather and Chinese buying continue to have the most impact on price in the short term. Another round of heat appears to be coming for the Corn Belt, the question is just whether or not it's a good or a bad thing amid parched soils in a lot of areas. Corn futures at mid-week are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 2-7 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents higher.
Crude Oil is up $3.27 at $73.71
US Dollar is up at $101.17
Dow futures are down 461 points at 52,736
WEATHER:
- Weather forecasts are little changed this morning in terms of the big picture, with another round of high pressure across the central US next week continuing to be the number one feature in the short term. The CPC has given most of the central and southeastern US a 40-60% chance at extreme heat the 15th-17th next week, while a pocket in SD/NE/IA sees a better than 60% chance the 15th and 16th. On precip, the two models are still in disagreement, but the GFS is more like the EU model today in the eastern and central parts of the region, with rains to favor the far north and the mid-south.
- Extended forecasts into the end of the month are in poor agreement as well, as the two have had differing opinions on how ridging develops over the next couple weeks. The GFS sees the ridge lingering at least into the week of July 20th, but the EU model tries to break it down somewhat before then and brings a larger trough of low pressure back into the eastern US.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- The CME Group's delivery slate was lighter this morning, with just 74 contracts of rough rice assigned, along with 4 contracts of KC wheat, 1 contract of corn, and 1 contract of oats.
- This morning's weekly ethanol update from the EIA, with data for the week ending July 3rd, is expected to show average daily production in the week between 1.075-1.137 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are seen between 24.60-24.83 mil bbls.
- Carry in the soybean market has all but evaporated over the last week or two, as the prospect for new Chinese buying in the short term has pushed demand to the front months. After closing higher each of the last four days, the August/Nov bean spread this morning is trading in positive territory for the first time since late May.
- USTR Jamieson Greer said Canada and Mexico "have not lived up to everything" under USMCA in comments this week, giving insight as to why the US has pushed against renewing the agreement in its current form. The agreement remains in place for now, but the Trump administration has continued to push for adjustments during the ongoing review process.
EXPORT NEWS:
- Private exporters reported sales of 472,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China. Of the total, 136,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2025/2026 marketing year, and 336,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2026/2027 marketing year.
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
