Morning Markets: Corn: +1.25.
Beans: -0.50. Wheat: -2.50.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Ag markets have a bit of a wait-and-see feel to them this morning out of the weekend, with prices mixed on light volume so far and narrow trading ranges ahead of what is expected to be a busy headline day tomorrow on Tuesday. Between expected crop adjustments, question marks regarding demand for US corn and soybeans, and the Russia-Ukraine meeting, there a number of flashpoints present that are likely to lead to an uptick in volatility, and we imagine traders will be somewhat loath to add any sort of new positions today ahead of all the happenings. Fund sentiment has shifted notably over the course of the last four-six weeks, but there is still plenty of global risk present that is unlikely to meaningfully subside in the short term. Corn futures to start Monday morning are trading either side of unchanged, soybean futures are trading around a penny lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents lower.
Trivia: How many passengers were on board the Mayflower when it set sail for the New World in 1620? (answer below)
Crude Oil is down $4.01 at $86.82
US Dollar is down at $101.82
Dow futures are up 634 points at 52,019
WEATHER:
- Midwest weather forecasts out of the weekend, while more fall-like than what was seen through October, are little changed this morning, and are still showing a calm week for most of the region. Temperatures will be cooler but still on the warmer side of average overall, while precip looks to stay largely limited to the West Coast and the northwest outside of a small cutoff low that could work through the middle of the country Wednesday/Thursday.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- Friday afternoon's weekly Commitment of Traders update from the CFTC showed managed money traders in the week ending November 3rd were sellers of 78,843 contracts of corn (-22,900), sellers of 52,602 contracts of soybeans (+132,799), and sellers of 13,866 contracts of Chicago wheat (-88,726). In the soy products, funds were sellers of 58,191 contracts of meal (+111,668) and were seller of 15,895 contracts of oil (+40,377).
- Tomorrow's November WASDE update, according to a Reuters survey of analysts, is expected to show US corn yields at an average of 180.3 bu/acre, with production at 15.962 bil bu and ending stocks at 1.840 bil bu. For soybeans, national average yields are seen at 53.5 bu/acre, with production at 4.597 bil bu and ending stocks at 331 mil bu. At the world level, corn stocks are seen rising slightly to 281.44 MMTs, while soybean stocks are seen near unchanged from last month at 124.73 MMTs.
- Export data out of Brazil for the month of October showed soybean shipments in the month down around 6% overall from the same period a year ago at 6.344 MMTs; however, the non-China portion of this total, at 1.9 MMTs, was actually up more than 3x the figure seen last year and was at a new record for the month. Meal exports were up 10% from a year ago at 2.456 MMTs, and corn exports were down 12% at 5.692 MMTs.
- Ag Ministry data out of Ukraine shows grain exports to this point in the marketing year have reached 6.77 MMTs, which is down more than 30% from the same period last year. Of the total, corn shipments are actually up on the year at 2.28 MMTs, but wheat shipments are down nearly 40% at just 4 MMTs. For November, exports through the first week totaled just 226k tons, less than half of what was shipped in the first week of the month a year ago.
- President Trump, speaking to CNN over the weekend, seemed to strike a more measured tone in regards to Iran, telling reporters that it was "highly unlikely" he would order more extensive strikes on the region though that this was still dependent on them signing what he's calling a "very strong agreement." Crude oil futures are trading lower on the headlines this morning but are still within the price range seen last week, and there have still been ongoing reports of attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
- The USDA said last week that it was planning on using an AI tool that it built to check data in tomorrow's WASDE update, following several errors in recent months that have eroded user confidence in the government reports. Officials said the tool would've successfully flagged the September corn yield errors, and that it is meant to add to, not replace, the agency's other data validation protocols.
- China said over the weekend that it would be suspending additional 24% tariffs on US imports for another two months beginning tomorrow, November 10th, while keeping 10% tariffs in place and also extending the suspension of special port fees for US vessels. The headline signals an ongoing working relationship between the two sides ahead of another round of high level trade meetings between Trump and Xi later this month.
EXPORT NEWS:
- Private exporters reported sales of 110,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2026/2027 marketing year.
Answer: 102 passengers (estimated crew of about 30 members)
Be careful!
