Morning Markets: Corn: +11.75 old & +12 new.
Beans: -8.25 old & new. Wheat: +9.25.
We will hold our Annual Crop Tour Meetings Thursday, August 27th
Lincoln ~ Knights of Columbus ~ 8 am for Breakfast!
Monticello ~ Monticello Community Building ~ 12 pm for Lunch!
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Overnight ag trade has been a bit of a mixed bag to get the new week started in Chicago, with the grain markets trading firmer on the bullish Pro Farmer yield estimate and ongoing risk assessment in the Black Sea, while the soy complex is mostly in the red on the same Pro Farmer findings and a general risk-off attitude in global energy markets that has spilled into the bean oil. It's a new week, but with the harvest season now dead ahead, we see trading themes the next several days as continuing to be largely similar to those seen since the start of the month. Pro Farmer has obviously opened the door for increased volatility out of the USDA in the months ahead, but in the meantime, global geopolitics and trader-based crop assessments are going to continue to be the center of most conversations, along with Chinese President Xi's visit to D.C. that is now just a month away. Corn futures to start Monday morning are trading 11-13 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 3-6 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 11-14 cents higher; Dec corn has made new contract highs overnight.
Crude Oil is down $1.41 at $85.65
US Dollar is up at $98.95
Dow futures are down 71 points at 53,282
WEATHER:
- Following a wet last ten days or so, weekend weather across much of the Corn Belt was on the drier side, with satellite data showing rains across parts of NE and southern SD in the west and also parts of WI and MI in the north but not much through the heart of the region.
- For this week, forecasts this morning are showing generally a continuation of that pattern mentioned over the weekend, with the EU model showing rain potential along the Gulf Coast and through the southeast and also throughout the northeast, but not a lot of moisture for the Corn Belt and much of the Midwest. To the west, the model also has scattered rain potential for parts of the central Plains, but totals here look to be light and generally variable over the next five days.
- Temperatures across the Midwest this week are seen returning to more seasonally normal levels after another day or two of cooler weather, though any sort of above normal heat continues to be largely confined to the west and southwest where high pressure looks to stay present. Nighttime lows across the Corn Belt look to stay average to below average throughout the week, which should help limit any sort of crop stress in the drier areas.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- Friday afternoon's Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC, with data for the week ending Tuesday, August 18th, showed managed money traders in the week were buyers of 83,735 contracts of corn (+250,505), buyers of 50,301 contracts of soybeans (+151,662), and buyers of 4,916 contracts of Chicago wheat (-26,485); in the soy products, funds were buyers of 11,448 contracts of meal (+83,024) and buyers of 17,317 contracts of oil (+98,237).
- Also out Friday afternoon was monthly cattle on feed data from the USDA, which showed the US feedlot herd as of August 1 at 11.117 mil head, which was up 2% from a year ago; placements in July were seen at 1.422 mil head, down 11% from last year, and marketings in the month were seen at 1.620 mil head, down 7% from last year.
- Since 2013, final US corn yields have come in above the Pro Farmer tour estimate nine times and final soybean yields have come in above the tour estimate eight times. However, in the last nine cases of Pro Farmer being more than three bu below the USDA in its estimate, USDA has gone on to cut yields in its September update every time. Similarly for soybeans, in eight of the last nine years the tour's soybean estimate was equal to or above the USDA, yields were raised in September. The Sep WASDE update is scheduled for September 11th.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said over the weekend that Russia had rejected a ceasefire proposal on attacks against ships carrying agricultural commodities through the Black Sea, saying that the only way such a proposal would be accepted was if it also included guarantees that Ukraine would stop striking Russian energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, and somewhat unrelatedly, Putin said that Russia would resolve its grain export problems and would be able to supply the world market with upwards of 60 million tons of grain.
- In an opinion piece published to the Financial Times on Sunday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that Monday would mark the start of the "single greatest financial offensive ever marshaled against an adversary," indicating some sort of new sanction announcement is expected during a press conference at noon central time today. Traders are paring risk ahead of the expected announcement, which has crude oil futures down around $2/bbl this morning.
EXPORT NEWS:
- N/A
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
