Morning Markets: Corn: -4.
Beans: -21.25. Wheat: -5.25.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. It's been a lower start to the week in overnight ag market trade, with the soy complex leading the declines and the grain markets in tow in what traders this morning are saying is selling related to the weekend election news in Brazil. The real has been down sharply overnight, which could prompt a round of selling from the farmer there that will need to be monitored the first part of this week. Otherwise, we imagine after another nearly ideal weekend for harvest activity that related sell pressure would be subsiding sooner rather than later as the period winds down in the next couple weeks, and this should correlate with the finding of a seasonal bottom. There's apparently more long liquidation to go to start the week, but we continue to be of the opinion today that markets should be closer to intermediate bottoms than not barring unexpected resolutions to either of the ongoing wars or a complete deterioration in relations with the Chinese. Lula's election comeback was a market surprise. Corn futures to start Monday morning are trading 3-4 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 20-21 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents lower.
Trivia: A long-handled agricultural tool with a curved blade? Historically used for mowing grass and harvesting crops. (answer below)
Crude Oil is down $1.56 at $101.71
US Dollar is up at $101.99
Dow futures are up 257 points at 52,651
WEATHER:
- Outside of parts of the western and northwestern Corn Belt, Midwest weather this week is likely to be generally the same as it was most of last week, with temperatures expected to stay on the warmer side of average and there still just limited rainfall chances east of the Mississippi over the next 5-7 days. Seven-day rainfall totals are seen in a range of a half inch to an inch for parts of NE/IA/MN/the Dakotas.
- The rainfall map for South America is little changed for this week coming out of the weekend, as Argentina looks to keep seeing cooler/wetter weather generally speaking, while Brazil sees normal rains through the central part of the country, with it then too dry in the north and too wet in the south. The models went wetter through Mato Grosso and other parts of the center-west section of the country over the weekend and also improved coverage.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- Weekly Commitment of Traders data from the CFTC on Friday showed managed money traders in the week ending October 20th were sellers of 84,619 contracts of corn (+146,257), sellers of 30,555 contracts of soybeans (+206,936), and sellers of 18,906 contracts of Chicago wheat (-51,134); in the products, funds sold 1,439 contracts of meal (+204,693) and sold 19,471 contracts of oil (+69,858).
- Monthly Cattle on Feed data, released by the USDA Friday afternoon, showed the US feedlot herd as of October 1 at 11.372 million head, which was down less than 1% from a year ago. Placements during September were seen at 1.777 mil head, down 12%, and marketings in the month were seen at 1.524 mil head, down 7%.
- The USDA on Friday issued corrections to corn data it issued in September, saying there was a "processing error" that produced erroneous yield data for Kansas and Nebraska. The department said in a statement that NE's yield should have been 182 bu/acre on the September report (vs the 177 that was published) and that KS's yield should have been 118 bu/acre vs the published figure of 121 bu; the national avg yield figure then would've been 178.8 vs 178.5. USDA added that data published in October had been reviewed and was accurate.
- While still being contested and not yet official, Lula's reelection win in Brazil means trade relations between the South American country and China are likely to remain positive going forward, providing potential headwinds for US soybean exporters. China said following the results that it was ready to strengthen its strategic partnership and expand economic cooperation with Brazil.
- In outside market news from last week, US natural gas futures fell some 15% in the last five sessions, seeing their largest weekly decline since late last winter on what has been an unusually warm October and ideas that El Niño is likely to keep the warmer bias around through the end of the month and into November. At the same time, natural gas prices in Europe are at their highest levels since 2022 on continued disruptions in the Middle East.
EXPORT NEWS:
- N/A
Answer: Scythe
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
