Morning Markets: Corn: +4.25 old & +5 new.
Beans: +15 old & +11.75 new. Wheat: +5.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Overnight commodity markets have been mixed and volatile to get the new week of trade started this morning, with the war in Iran and the broader geopolitical situation associated with it appearing to remain the main market features at least early on. There's been a noted flow of money out of equities and into commodities over the last week or so, and this, more than any fundamental, has been the main source of the March rally in ag prices. Corn futures to start Monday morning are trading 5-7 cents higher and are some 10-12 cents off the highs, soybean futures are trading 10-12 cents higher and are some 15-20 cents off the highs, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents higher and is some 20-25 cents off its highs. Crude oil futures are up $11+/bbl and are above the $100 mark for the first time since 2022, but are also some $15-20/bbl off the highs.
Crude Oil is up $8.66 at $99.56
US Dollar is up at $99.21
Dow futures are down 497 points at 47,020
WEATHER:
- Midwest weather will be on the mild side to start the week this week, with a lot of the area expected to see record or near-record high temperatures Monday/Tuesday before cooling marginally into the back half of the week. Similar to last week, temperatures will be more variable as we get into spring, but for the most part, models this morning have maintained mostly warmer-than-normal biases throughout most all of the US over the next two weeks, with the best chances at cooler air seen in the north-central US and then over into the northeast.
- Meanwhile, the moisture pattern looks to remain active as well, with the EU model seeing an additional 0.5"-1.5" of rainfall this week for most of the eastern and southeastern US through the end of the day on Friday.
- Rainfall across Argentina this week looks to continue to be present, but will favor the western 2/3s of the country and generally continue to miss areas in the east and southeast. For Brazil, forecasts actually trended slightly drier through the country's northeast and into the north-central regions, which would be a welcome development following weeks of near-daily rains there and as soil moisture levels are currently adequate to surplus. Better rains will continue across the south and south-central parts of the country, which should help ease some dryness concerns in these areas.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- According to the CME Group, the delivery slate for Monday morning includes 241 contracts of corn, 28 contracts of hard red spring wheat, and 13 contracts of rough rice.
- Friday afternoon's CFTC commitment of traders report with data for the week ending March 3rd showed managed money traders in the week were buyers of 66,842 contracts of corn (+52,974), buyers of 14,700 contracts of soybeans (+198,902) and sellers of 8,502 contracts of Chicago wheat (-25,800). In the soy products, funds were buyers of 30,392 contracts of meal (+62,087) and buyers of 12,198 contracts of oil (+75,509).
- The USDA is set to release its March supply and demand report tomorrow morning at 11am central time. According to Bloomberg, traders see the report showing new crop corn ending stocks at 2.131 bil bu, which would be up just marginally from last month, while soybean stocks are seen at 346 mil bu vs 350 last month, and wheat stocks were seen at 926 mil bu, down from 931 last month. World stocks are seen at 289.5 MMTs for corn, 125 MMTs for soybeans and 277.5 MMTs for wheat, which are all within 0.5 MMTs of previous estimates.
- Friday's labor market data signaled a cooling US jobs environment, as employers unexpectedly cut 92,000 jobs in February, which caused unemployment to tick back up to 4.4% after falling to 4.3% in January. Combined with increasing inflationary pressures caused by the Iran conflict, the numbers signal what is likely to be a difficult short term path for the US Federal Reserve as it pertains to policy and interest rates.
- Sources familiar with the situation who have been involved in the preparations said over the weekend that a planned summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping was unlikely to produce any sort of major breakthrough. The sources added that expectations were currently low that even a limited reset in business or investment relations would happen, suggesting that bigger picture structural issues over things like technology and economic security remain firmly in place.
- Cash sources from around the countryside indicated last week was one of the better weeks of farmer selling so far in 2026, as producers let go of a sizeable amount of old crop corn, as well as started new crop sales for the 2026/27 season in a lot of cases on both corn and soybeans.
- US Customs and Border Protection told a federal court last week that it would be unable to immediately issue refunds for roughly $166 billion in tariff income collected by the Trump administration, explaining that its current systems, administrative procedures and staffing were unable to quickly process refunds on such a large scale. As a result, companies expecting such refunds are likely to face notable delays while the government tries to build the infrastructure needed to handle such an undertaking, which could open the door for new legal developments before the refunds are issued.
EXPORT NEWS:
- N/A
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
