Morning Markets: Corn: -1.50.
Beans: +3.75. Wheat: -4.50.
TFG Customer Appreciation Lunches are on! 11:30-1:30 pm!!
Come get a pork chop!
TODAY!! ~ Milmine
TOMORROW! ~ Tabor
9/28 ~ Pierson
9/29 ~ Emery
9/30 ~ Cisco
10/1 ~ Johnston Siding
The United Church of Atwood will be serving pork chop lunches Saturday, 10/3 from 11am-1pm in Pierson by free-will donation!
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Overnight ag trade has been two-sided to start Thursday, with the beans higher on overnight China headlines and the grains unchanged/quietly lower. We've talked about it all week, but price direction the next two days into the weekend is going to be highly predicated on headlines and trade developments between the US and China, while the pair of ongoing wars and harvest progress/yield data gets pushed to the back burner. Its not anticipated that any sort of specific volumes or tonnages will be announced the next couple days like the deal made in 2020, but traders will be watching for developments regarding a) the newly implemented Board of Trade and b) regarding reciprocal tariffs that are still in place and have largely limited private buyers from purchasing US ag goods. It's harvest time across the Midwest, but trader focus is going to be almost entirely on Washington D.C. for at leas the next couple days. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 3-4 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 4-6 cents lower.
Crude Oil is up $1.78 at $91.08
US Dollar is up at $101.22
Dow futures are down 125 points at 51,748
WEATHER:
- Forecasts for the Midwest are generally unchanged this morning, with the models continuing to be in good agreement on southwest flow bringing an uptick in moisture to the central part of the country the next several days into next week, with this moisture then expanding further east by the middle/back half of next week. The first round of rains looks to be a little less organized, but then a larger low pressure system (likely the remains of Hurricane Polo in the Pacific) is seen working through the region Weds/Thurs/Fri next week and is expected to provide heavier, more widespread rainfall.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- The USDA is set to release its quarterly hogs and pigs report later this afternoon at 2pm central time; traders see the report showing the US hog herd as of September 1 at 74.834 million head, which if accurate, would be down a little less than 1% from the same day last year. Market hogs are seen down about 1% also at 68.946 million head, and breeding hogs are seen down around 1% at 5.889 million head.
- In comments made following the announcement of the Busan agreement extension, Bessent responded to a question asking about a broader deal being reached by the extension date by saying, "I don't know whether a bigger deal can be done. I don't know whether we just roll the current deal." The comments would seemingly set the stage for limited new announcements the next couple days, and instead would indicate a broader continuation in relations established last spring.
- Secretary of State Rubio said Wednesday following talks with Russia's Foreign Minister that both sides had expressed interest in some sort of limited ceasefire covering grain and energy, but that Moscow had still not accepted any sort of proposal. While seemingly positive on the surface, the comments echo those made previously and would indicate that there continues to be little if any progress towards actually finding a solution.
- Private analytics firm Barva Invest said this week that the global grain market could possibly lose upwards of 38 million tons of supplies from Russia and Ukraine in the 2026/27 season due to ongoing disruptions in the Black Sea region. The group said the situation could be even worse than that, and added that they "remain skeptical" regarding a rapid recovery in exports out of the region.
- A White House official on Wednesday rejected claims made in a Politico article touting a 90-day diesel export ban, though no additional details or information was given. The administration has allegedly been mulling ways to lower fuel prices at the pump, but industry analysts are skeptical as to how much impact such a ban would actually have.
- In a quarterly update released this week, grain trade association Coceral cut its forecast for EU corn production in the current season from 52.7 MMTs previously to now just 48.6 MMTs; if accurate, the figure would be down some 14% from last year due to hot and dry weather during the growing season.
EXPORT NEWS:
- Private exporters reported sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2026/2027 marketing year.
- This morning's weekly export sales report, with data for the week ending September 17th, is expected to show corn sales in the week between 800k-1.4 mil MTs, soybean sales between 1.5-2.0 mil MTs, and wheat sales between 350k-600k MTs.
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
