Morning Markets: Corn: +1.75 old & +1.25 new.
Beans: +3.50 old & +1 new. Wheat: +6.
PLEASE JOIN US FOR OUR 2026 FOCUS MEETINGS!!
Tuesday, March 3rd at the Knights of Columbus in Lincoln with breakfast at 8:00am and meeting to follow.
Tuesday, March 3rd at the Monticello Community Building in Monticello with lunch at 12:00pm and meeting to follow.
Topflight Grain is offering Free PL on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free PL on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Happy Friday. CBOT ag markets are mostly quiet/mixed to start Friday trade this morning, with soybean oil seeing some profit taking off this week's run-up and the wheat market continuing to chug higher on additional speculative buying. Corn and beans, meanwhile, are caught somewhat in the middle, as both have seen fairly narrow trading ranges and not a lot of volume in the overnight session so far at this writing. With China still on holiday through the weekend and into next week, we would anticipate today's trade as likely being on the choppy side, with chart momentum and algo/computer trading likely having the most impact on price into next week. Corn futures this morning are trading around a penny higher, soybean futures are trading 2-3 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-4 cents higher.
Crude Oil is down $0.21 at $66.19
US Dollar is down at $97.83
Dow futures are down 99 points at 49,359
WEATHER:
- Weekend weather across the Midwest looks to be somewhat active, especially for the northern and eastern parts of the region, as models have additional scattered rain/snow impacting the area through the day today and then again Saturday into Sunday. The central part of the region and areas generally west of the Mississippi look to miss out on a lot of this moisture for the most part, while rains will also be present through the southeast throughout most of the weekend.
- South of the equator, models see weekend rains through Argentina the next 72 hours favoring the western half of the country for the most part, while south and south-central Brazil look to see just light precip of generally less than an inch for the most part into the first part of next week. Models then are wetter this morning into the back half of the week next week for this region, and also see rains expanding back east into the central part of Argentina by the middle of next week.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- The IGC (International Grains Council) in a monthly update this week said they now see global 2025/26 grain stocks at 631 MMTs, down slightly from a January estimate of 634 MMTs. The group added in a statement that global corn and wheat supplies may tighten comparatively in the 2026/27 season, as it will be difficult to produce such exceptional crops two years in a row.
- Reuters reported on Thursday, citing Brazilian government data, that the country had shipped its first sorghum load to China in more than 10 years, though the volume was just under 26 MMTs. While negligible in terms of quantity and market influence, the business reflects an ongoing push by China to diversify its supply lines away from the US, who is traditionally its largest sorghum supplier.
- The USDA's monthly livestock slaughter report, released yesterday, showed total US red meat production in January at 4.580 bil lbs, which was down a little more than 5% from the month prior and down 6.2% from the same month last year. Beef production totaled 2.119 bil lbs, down 8% from Dec, and pork production totaled 2.450 bil lbs, down 3% from Dec.
- Monthly data from the EPA released on Thursday showed the US generated fewer renewable fuel blending credits in January than in December; ethanol RINs totaled about 1.22 billion vs about 1.32 billion the month prior, while biodiesel RINs were seen at around 438 million, down from around 670 million in Dec.
- According to weekly data published by the USDA, barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending February 14th totaled 474k tons, which was up nearly 80% from the week prior. Corn shipments were seen at 244k tons, up 122% on the week, and soybean shipments totaled 224k tons, up 55% on the week. STL barge freight rates were quoted at $24.90/short ton, which was up 68 cents on the week prior.
- Following an official signing on Thursday, White House officials said that a trade agreement with Indonesia would provide expanded market access for US goods and services and would unlock new opportunities across manufacturing, agriculture and digital sectors. Under the agreement, most of Indonesia's exports to the US will have a 19% tariff rate, though several ag goods like chocolate and coffee will be excluded from this.
- While we have no idea what the odds are that a ruling is actually made today, SCOTUS will be delivering opinions today on Friday, which means it could release a ruling on President Trump's broad IEEPA tariffs. Betting markets have the odds that SCOTUS rules in favor of the tariffs as low, but any such ruling would likely be met with appeals from the Trump administration, likely leading to a prolonged legal battle.
EXPORT NEWS:
- N/A
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
