Morning Markets: Corn: +0.75.
Beans: +13.25. Wheat: +4.75.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. CBOT ag markets are mostly higher coming out of the weekend, with prices seeing a bit of a dead-cat-bounce as the dust from Friday's data update is seemingly not quite all the way settled yet early in the day on Monday morning. In the case of the soybeans, which are the leaders in the space this morning, the easy explanation would be that Friday's sell-off was probably overdone a bit if being based strictly on the USDA numbers seen in the reports, as the data was really pretty neutral; however, whether that is in-fact the case, or if the sell-off was more based on the broader fundamental landscape and ideas that China's buying won't be what was expected a couple weeks ago will be one of the bigger questions posed to traders this week. Corn futures to start Monday are trading around a penny higher, soybean futures are trading 8-10 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 4-6 cents higher. Products are higher, soybean meal is up $2-3/ton and soybean oil is up 20-30 points. Outside markets are mixed/mostly higher - crude oil futures are trading either side of unchanged, the Dow Jones index is down 20 points, and the US$ index is up 10-15 points; the S&P500 is unchanged, and the NASDAQ is up 30 points.
Crude Oil is up $1.16 at $59.85
US Dollar is down at $98.96
Global Equities: Japan +0.0%, China +0.0%, and Europe +0.0%
Dow futures are down 316 points at 47,231
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn +0.0% and Wheat +0.0%
WEATHER:
- Following additional rains through southern Brazil the rest of the day today and tomorrow, South American weather looks set for a bit of a pattern shift towards the back half of the week this week, as moisture looks to expand through northern and northeastern Brazil, while southern areas into Argentina see several days of drier conditions aside from one light storm system that looks to come across Argentina Thursday into Friday. Amid parched soils through most of the country's growing regions, the drier shift will be welcome by producers in Argentina.
- Forecasts for the US Midwest this week show temperatures holding in a mostly warmer-than-normal bias for the east, as cool air through Friday continues to be seen confined mostly to the southwestern US. The cooler air will likely be the result of continued cloudy/rainy weather in this part of the world also, while the EU model this morning also shows scattered precip potential through the central Midwest beginning today and slowly working east into the middle of the week. The model then sees heavier rains through the mid-south and south-central US the back half of this week and into the weekend, with totals from KS/OK over to WV seen reaching upwards of 2+".
OTHER HEADLINES:
- According to the CME Group, there were 6 additional contracts of November soybeans assigned for delivery Friday evening, as well as 7 contracts of rough rice.
- The USDA's November WASDE update on Friday offered minor production adjustments for the US corn and soybean crops, but otherwise did little in terms of changing the overall fundamental landscape. Global stocks for all three of corn, beans and wheat came in on the heavier side vs expectations, further illustrating that the market outlook from here remains neutral to slightly bearish unless a production hiccup occurs in South America.
- Along with the regular WASDE data, the USDA also released back logged flash sales data for October and the first couple weeks of November, which added up to around 6.6 MMTs of sales. The bulk of this (4.9 MMTs) was corn, but was also mostly regular business, as the large volume sales to Mexico are common in October and November most every year. Soybean sales to China on a known basis totaled just 332,000 MTs in the period, which was generally disappointing in relation to trade expectations.
- NOPA (the National Oilseed Processors Association) is set to release monthly crush and soybean oil stocks data for the US at 11am central time this morning. Traders see the group showing October crush likely reaching an all-time record at 209.522 mil bu, which would be up 6% from last month and up 5% from the same month last year. Soybean oil stocks as of the end of the month are seen at 1.257 bil lbs, which would be a three-month high and up 17% from the same month last year.
- Weekend trade news out of India has the country's government possibly preparing to resume wheat and wheat product exports for the first time in more than three years as adequate stock levels and expectations for record production in the coming season has led industry sources to call for a lifting of the restrictions that have been in place since 2022. The Indian government on Friday also announced its sugar export quota for the coming season at 1.5 MMTs, which would be up from 1 MMTs last year and comes following an export ban due to a supply shortage in the 2023/24 season.
- Executives from the world's number one meatpacker, JBS, told analysts last week that their market outlook for Q4 this year is still not overly optimistic, as beef margins look to remain tight into the end of the year due to an ongoing shortage of cattle in the US, where the company derives most of its revenue. The group added that they see supply-side issues remaining in place through most of 2026, before gradual improvements could occur in 2027.
- President Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Friday that he and his team had spoken with Chinese officials earlier in the day, and that they would be buying a lot of soybeans "before spring". While somewhat encouraging that dialogue between the two sides seems to be ongoing, the comments could be taken as a negative from the standpoint that "spring" would seem to indicate a more drawn-out timeline for initial purchases, as opposed to the previously indicated deadline of January 1.
- Following a suspension of oil exports on Friday at Russia's Novorossiysk port due to Ukrainian drone and missile attacks, sources say the port has resumed loadings as of Sunday. Novorossiysk typically exports around 2.2 mil bbls of oil/day, or some 2% of the global supply. Reuters reported last week that, despite ongoing attacks on refineries and other oil infrastructure, Russia's processing capacity had fallen just roughly 3% since the start of the year.
- In a letter seen by news outlets, a group of nine Republican state attorney generals have raised concerns over Union Pacific's (the UP) proposed $85 billion takeover of rival Norfolk Southern, saying that they were concerned the deal would "result in undue market concentration that stifles competition and therefore creates higher prices, lower reliability, and less innovation at the expense of America's manufacturers, and ultimately, America's consumers." The merger, announced earlier this summer, is being reviewed by the Surface Transportation Board, which is expected to take 12-18 months.
- The US Commerce Dept said last week that the second estimate for Q3 US GDP would be released on November 26th, while PCE data for the month of October will then be released 90 minutes later the same day. October trade data will be out on December 4th, and then the November PCE report is expected on December 19th. Along similar lines, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Non-farm payrolls from September would be released on November 20th, and the Census Bureau said that census trade data for August will be released this week on November 19th.
EXPORT NEWS:
- N/A
Be safe!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
