Morning Markets: Corn: -13 old & -13.75 new.
Beans: -31 old & -33.25 new. Wheat: -3.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. The selling seen in the wheat markets Friday has permeated throughout the rest of the space to get Monday morning trade started, as the CBOT is seeing a somewhat surprising sell-off to get the week started. While a pause in military action in the Middle East is a positive and there had no doubt been war premium injected over the last several days, there still exists at least some level of concern regarding Midwest crops/weather and optimism surrounding Chinese demand that, in our opinion, should limit the selling to more of a corrective event as opposed to an all out change in trend. We mentioned the plethora of bullish items that are on the table for traders last week, and those didn't just disappear this morning. Should the correction continue, look for open chart gaps made early last week in the corn and soybean markets to be downside objectives this week. Corn futures to start Monday are trading 14-15 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 30-35 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 10-11 cents lower.
Crude Oil is down $5.27 at $84.04
US Dollar is down at $101.39
Dow futures are up 611 points at 52,735
WEATHER:
- Weekend weather featured generally warm/dry conditions across a lot of the Midwest, though relatively high humidity levels helped with some of the lack of moisture in areas. Getting into this week, the models over the weekend turned a little cooler for the eastern US, seeing a somewhat similar pocket of below average air temps now through much of the Corn Belt as was seen last week, while the west continues to bake under a high pressure ridge that shows no signs of subsiding real soon.
- On the precip side, this morning's EU model run has Corn Belt rainfall staying largely on the scattered/spotty side for the first part of the week this week before better storm chances arrive late week and through the weekend. The model has rainfall of roughly 1-2" impacting an area from SD/NE east through MN/IA/MO and then over into IL. Confidence is not high, but the model then also has this storm track generally staying in place into next week, with most all but some areas in the far north expected to see at least a half inch of rain by the end of next weekend.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- Friday afternoon's CFTC Commitment of Traders report, with data for the week ending Tuesday, July 21st, showed managed money traders in the week were buyers of 49,518 contracts of corn (+92,909), buyers of 52,212 contracts of soybeans (+124,900), and buyers of 17,448 contracts of Chicago wheat (-19,349). In the soy products, funds bought 27,300 contracts of meal (+75,152) and bought 12,320 contracts of oil (+125,348).
- Also out Friday afternoon was monthly cattle on feed data from the USDA; the report showed the US feedlot herd as of July 1 at 11.370 million head, which was up 2% from last year and near trade expectations. Placements during the month were seen at 1.399 mil head, down 3% from last year, and marketings were seen at 1.661 mil head, also down about 3% from last year.
- While prior to the recent round of military action in the region starting, private Russian shipping data for the month of June showed the country's wheat exports in the month up more than double the figure seen in the same month last year at nearly 3 million tons; total seaborn exports in the marketing year that ends June 30th are estimated at 52.7 MMTs, which would be up more than 13% from last year.
- Staying on the subject of Russian wheat, a spokesperson from the Harbor Master's office of the country's Novorossiysk port said Friday that reports of a nighttime navigation ban, reported by several newswires last week, were false, and that no such ban was in place. The statement said vessel traffic may see limited restrictions during attack alerts, but that no instructions had been received, either directly or indirectly, on a further navigation ban.
- In other global wheat news, the USDA's ag attaché to Australia on Friday raised their estimate of the country's wheat production figure in the 2026/27 season to 31 MMTs, which would still be down from the 36 MMTs produced in 2025/26 but up some two million tons from the group's previous estimate and also up nearly four million tons from Australia's Ag Dept.
- China's Ministry of Ag and Rural Affairs said on Friday that summer grain production this year reached a record 150.75 MMTs, overcoming challenges that included a delayed planting campaign and multiple rounds of flooding in some areas caused by excessive rainfall. The statement also mentioned that the country's pork supply still exceeds demand, but that efforts to reverse a prolonged downturn in local hog prices were beginning to have a measurable effect.
- As part of ongoing efforts by the Trump administration to bring down record beef prices, sources familiar with the situation said on Friday that the US would be allowing Mexican cattle imports to gradually resume after more than a year long ban, indicating plans had been put in place for a "phased reopening" that is set to begin in late-August. The announcement comes as a total of 42 New World Screwworm have been reported in the US in recent week, with all but one of those being reported in Texas.
EXPORT NEWS:
- 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2026/2027 marketing year
- 126,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2026/2027 marketing year
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
