Morning Markets: Corn: +1.75 old & +0.75 new.
Beans: -1 old & -0.50 new. Wheat: +7.
All TFG locations will be closed on Monday, January 19th in observation of Martin Luther King Jr. Day!
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Happy Friday. Ag markets have traded steady to higher so far in the overnight hours, though it’s been a small-range, low-volume start to the morning so far. It seems following the selloff on Monday that markets have found some measure of value near the lows made earlier in the week, but how long these hold amid what still appears to be a world awash in grain and soy supplies will be the question going forward. Corn futures to start Friday are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are trading near unchanged, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 5-6 cents higher. After closing sharply higher on Thursday, bean oil futures are down 10-15 points this morning.
Crude Oil is up $0.71 at $59.79
US Dollar is down at $99.24
Dow futures are up 5 points at 49,644
WEATHER:
- Weekend weather across the Midwest will be like recent days this week, as low pressure continues to spin through the northern and northeastern parts of the region through the day today and into Saturday, while another system then drops in Sunday and into Monday with more snow for the Great Lakes and surrounding areas. Temperatures will be cooler through the weekend and into the first part of next week, but are seen trending towards more average levels by the end of next week and into the following weekend.
- Weather across South America over the next couple days will likely feature ongoing rainfall in the northern half of Argentina, while the south stays mostly dry aside for some light/scattered precip that is possible on Sunday. To the north, Brazil will see showers across the south and southeast of the country, but will likely trend drier in the central and western ag regions until rains are seen returning here Monday/Tuesday next week and then favoring areas slightly further north through the following weekend and into the end of the month. Most of Argentina looks to stay on the cooler side of normal over the next week, with there still little/no sign of heat present through either of he two countries.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- Following cuts in production out of Brazil's CONAB on Thursday, private group Agroconsult took an opposite stance yesterday and actually raised production from a previous estimate of 178.1 MMTs to 182.2 MMTs. The group is in the middle of an ongoing crop tour, and added that additional increases were possible going forward.
- After the USDA made higher supply adjustments on Monday, the International Grains Council (IGC) made similar adjustments this week, raising their corn production forecast 15 MMTs to 1.313 bil MTs, while wheat production was similarly raised 12 MMTs to 842 MMTs. Grain stocks are seen at 634 MMTs, up from a previous estimate of 619 MMTs.
- The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, in a weekly crop update, made no production adjustments to either the corn or soybean crops in Argentina, and added that final wheat production with harvest now complete was seen at a new record 27.8 MMTs. Corn and soybeans saw further slight declines in conditions, with 5% of the corn crop now seen in the poor category, up from 1% last week, while 4% of the soybean crop is now rated poor, up from 0% last week.
- Canadian PM Mark Carney said during a visit to China this week that he expects Chinese tariffs on its rapeseed and canola to be cut by March 1 from a current level of around 80% to 15% as part of a broader trade deal apparently reached by the two sides this week. Canada will also be allowing a set amount of Chinese EVs into its markets at a rate of around 6%, which compares to the current level of nearly 100%.
- According to industry shipping data released on Friday, Russia's seaborn grain exports in December were up more than 4% from last December at 4.7 MMTs; cumulative exports through the first half of the marketing year are seen at roughly 30 MMTs, which is down some 7% from the same period last year.
- Barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending January 10th were down 30% from the week prior at 528k tons; corn shipments in the week were down 33% at 311k tons, and soybean shipments in the week were down 29% at 200k tons. STL barge freight rates were quoted at $20.59/short ton, up 24 cents from the week prior.
EXPORT NEWS:
- 298,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2025/2026 marketing year
- 120,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Japan during the 2025/2026 marketing year
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
