Morning Markets: Corn: +0 old & +0.25 new.
Beans: -3.25 old & new. Wheat: -3.
We will hold our Annual Crop Tour Meetings Thursday, August 27th
Lincoln ~ Knights of Columbus ~ 8 am for Breakfast!
Monticello ~ Monticello Community Building ~ 12 pm for Lunch!
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Happy Friday. Ag markets are seeing lower trade out of the overnight session this morning to get Friday started, with a little bit of corrective action noted for the first time this week on what we assume to largely be profit taking. We've discussed all week how bullish fundamentals in the grain markets are unlikely to go anywhere in the short term, but amid what have become overbought chart conditions and with the volatility that is expected Sunday evening following this afternoon's yield estimates from Pro Farmer, it's not surprising to see traders pare some risk into the weekend. In general, the market background is still largely unchanged and we would expect much of the same theme's discussed this week to again be present next week. Corn futures to start wrapping up the week are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 4-6 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 5-7 cents lower.
Crude Oil is down $0.19 at $86.64
US Dollar is down at $98.75
Dow futures are up 351 points at 53,200
WEATHER:
- Weekend weather across the Corn Belt looks to feature a bit of ongoing scattered thunderstorm activity across the far northern and northeastern part of the region the next few days, but rainfall totals look to be light and variable while the rest of the area sees what looks to be a more mild few days. Temperatures will also be mild, as heat continues to be kept to the south and west for the most part. Models see additional scattered precip across the region then next week, but totals look to be more scattered and away from the heart of the Midwest into next weekend.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- Traders see this afternoon's monthly Cattle on Feed update from the USDA showing the US feedlot herd as of August 1 at 11.184 million head, which would be up about 2% from last year. Placements during the month are seen falling 7% to 1.491 mil head and marketings are seen falling 7% also to 1.623 mil head. The report is due out at 2pm central time this afternoon.
- Pro Farmer pegged IA corn yields at an average of 194.0 bu/acre on Thursday, down from last year's record 198.4 estimate but still up from the recent three-year average of 191.3. Soybean pod counts in the state averaged 1,363 pods, which was similarly down from last year's 1,384.4 but still above the recent average of 1,295.7. In MN, corn yields were pegged at 199.0 bu/acre, down from 202.9 last year but above the average of 183.04; soybean pod counts averaged 1,257.8 pods vs 1,247.9 last year and 1,089.8 average.
- Weekly crop data out of Argentina from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange this week showed little change in the country's wheat crop, with the group indicating 100% of the crop that had been planted was either in normal or excellent condition. Meanwhile, corn harvest remains a slow task, with progress going from 77% to 81% over the last week.
- The International Grains Council this week cut another 4 million tons off its 2026/27 world wheat production outlook, due in large part to cuts in the EU as a result of record heat seen this summer. Total global grain production was similarly trimmed a little more than 3% to 2.42 billion tons, while ending stocks are seen falling another 4% to just 606 million tons.
- Private South American consultancy Datagro said this week that they see Brazil's corn deficit in the coming season growing to north of 7 million tons from just under 3 million tons this year, due in large part to continued growth in corn demand for ethanol. The group left its production forecast unchanged at 147.5 MMTs, which would be up about 1.5% from this year if accurate. Meanwhile, China's CFOCO said this week that soybean production in Brazil could fall slightly next year despite planted area being steady to slightly higher due largely to impacts caused by El Niño.
- Data released by the EPA on Thursday showed the US generated 1.29 billion D6 (ethanol) RINs in the month of July, up from 1.28 billion in June, while D4 (biodiesel) RINs fell to 796 million generated from 841 million last month.
- The USDA's monthly livestock slaughter report, released yesterday, showed total red meat production in the US during the month of July at 4.29 bil lbs, which is down 2% from both June and July of last year. Beef production at 2.085 bil lbs was down 5% from last year and pork production at 2.191 bil lbs was up 1.5% from last year.
- In other livestock news, President Trump said Friday morning that he would allow up to 300,000 MTs of ground beef to be imported without impacting tariff quotas as part of a broader 90-day deal aimed at lowering food prices for US consumers. Trump's Truth Social post made further mention that the meat would be sold at "25% below current market prices."
- According to weekly USDA data, barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending August 15th totaled 639k tons, which was down 11% from the week prior. Corn shipments in the week at 4111k tons were down 21% and soybean shipments at 194k tons were up 17%. STL barge freight rates were quoted at $23.46/short ton, down $1.68 from the week prior.
EXPORT NEWS:
- 205,000 metric tons of corn received in the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2026/2027 marketing year
- 712,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2026/2027 marketing year
- 720,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2026/2027 marketing year
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
