Morning Markets: Corn: -2 old & -2.50 new.
Beans: -6.25 old & -6 new. Wheat: +1.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Happy Friday. Markets are mixed/mostly lower to start the morning, with the soy complex seeing follow-through selling from Thursday, while corn is lower also and the wheat market is higher in the front months but lower in the deferreds. Overnight news has again had a macro lean, with Trump's Federal Reserve Chair pick likely to take most of the headlines through the morning hours today, while we would expect Friday position squaring to be the theme going into the close. Corn futures this morning are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 5-6 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading either side of unchanged.
Crude Oil is down $0.37 at $65.05
US Dollar is up at $96.60
Dow futures are down 169 points at 49,001
WEATHER:
- Weather models overnight have expanded the area in the southeast expected to see 3-5" of snow over the weekend to now most of the Carolinas and also further west into TN/KY and the far western tip of VA. The rest of the Midwest, however, looks to see just light/scattered snows with accumulation generally staying under an inch into the first part of next week, before a more organized system is seen impacting the area Tuesday/Wednesday next week.
- Weekend rains across Argentina will continue to favor the western half of the country, while the east and southeast hold in a drier pattern for another couple days before rains return the middle/end of next week. Brazil looks to stay wet, meanwhile, with 72-hour precip totals ranging from a half inch to an inch generally, with some locally heavier amounts possible in areas of the country's center-south region. Temperatures will be warm in Argentina for another day or two, but then moderate a touch into the first part of next week.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- Argentina's Buenos Aires Grain Exchange on Thursday saw another decline in weekly crop conditions across the country, with their update showing corn conditions up another 3% in the poor category from the week prior to 14%, while soybeans were up the same amount to 16% poor. There were still no production cuts made, but the group said in a note that rainfall would need to return soon to avoid yield loss.
- In a monthly update on Thursday, the European Commission said it sees 2025/26 grain output from the bloc at 287.4 MMTs, up from their previous forecast of 287.2 MMTs. Of note, the group also cut the bloc's wheat export forecast for the 2025/26 season from 31.0 MMTs to 29.5 MMTs, citing strong competition from other global exporters; the cut led directly to an increase in their stocks estimate, which rose from 11.7 MMTs to 13.0 MMTs.
- According to the USDA, barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending January 24th were seen at 568k tons, which was up 27% from the week prior; corn shipments at 253k tons were up 11.5%, and soybean shipments at 287k tons were up 37%. St. Louis barge freight rates were quoted at $24.34/short ton, up $2.79 on the week prior.
- Rumors that President Trump on Friday will peg Kevin Warsh as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve have added fuel to the fire that was yesterday's gold correction, with spot futures down some $250/oz or nearly 5% in overnight trade this morning. Economists and traders see Warsh as more hawkish than his predecessor and assume he will be less supportive of deeper interest rate cuts throughout 2026; stocks and bond futures, along with the rest of the precious metals markets, are also lower this morning on the news.
- Newswires this morning are reporting that Trump and Senate Democrats have reached a deal on funding, but there are doubts as to whether it will be approved before tonight's midnight deadline. The Senate did not vote on the bill last night, and there were reports during the day yesterday that the funding package failed to advance on a key procedural vote.
- Trump told reporters on Thursday that he had a "very productive" phone call with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, as both sides seem to continue to make progress on USMCA and broader economic ties. Sheinbaum also said the call was productive, but added that no concrete progress had yest been made on a trade deal. She also mentioned that Mexico was planning to have a separate call with Canadian PM Mark Carney in the near future.
EXPORT NEWS:
- N/A
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
