Morning Markets: Corn: +1.75 old & new.
Beans: +8.25 old & +7.25 new. Wheat: +1.75
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. The CBOT is rebounding to start Tuesday trade this morning, with corn and soybean markets trading pretty much dead opposite of how they traded on Monday, while wheat futures are just quietly above unchanged and still near the lows made on Monday. Soybean oil is also catching a bid this morning and is up some 2.5%, which has likely been part of the reason for the strength in the beans. Corn futures are trading 1-2 cents higher to start Tuesday, soybean futures are trading 7-9 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents higher also.
Crude Oil is up $0.64 at $62.78
US Dollar is up at $97.65
Dow futures are down 72 points at 49,451
WEATHER:
- Not a lot new on the weather front this morning, with models still in good agreement on a pair of storm systems that will provide most of the atmospheric excitement for the next few days and into the weekend. Further out, models are also still showing a bit of a pattern shift over the next 10 days or so, as high pressure that has been parked over the western US is pushed east and leads to a warm up in temps and an increase in precip potential for the mid-section of the country as flow shifts from the northwest to the southwest.
- The EU model has taken a similar wetter shift overnight last night to what the GFS model did yesterday afternoon, with both now showing improved rainfall prospects through Argentina the back half of this week and into the weekend. Temperatures also trended cooler beyond this week in the last 24 hours, while there was little if any change for either part of the forecast for the bulk of Brazil.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- The USDA's monthly Fats and Oils report for December, released yesterday afternoon, showed US December soybean crush at 230 mil bu, which was up 4% from Nov and up 6% from Dec 2024, and also the second highest monthly figure ever. Soybean oil stocks as of the end of the month totaled 2.179 bil lbs, which was up 11% from Nov and up 29% from Dec 2024.
- The USDA also released monthly corn usage data on Monday, which showed corn used for ethanol in December at 488 mil bu, which was up 5% from Nov and up 2% from Dec 2024. Total corn usage in the month was seen at 534 mil bu, also up 5% from Nov and up 1% from Dec 2024.
- News outlets, citing comments from President Trump, said on Monday that the US and India had reached a trade agreement, with the US cutting tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 18% in exchange for a significant reduction in India's purchase of Russian oil and a planned investment of more than $500 billion in purchases of US energy, technology, ag products, coal, and other goods. While a significant step forward, sources have also reported that there has not yet been any confirmation from the Indian side.
- The USDA's state-level crop progress report, released monthly during the winter, showed a bit of a mixed bag in terms of winter wheat conditions this month. The KS crop was seen improving 1% in the G/EX category from January to 61%, while CO went from 43% to 57%; meanwhile, OK declined 8% in the same category to 23%, TX was down 3% to 13%, NE was down 16% to 24%, and SD was down 1% to 37%.
- Amid higher than expected yield reports through the early part of harvest, a pair of privates on Monday bumped their estimates of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop higher to 181.62 MMTs (StoneX, US) and 181.3 MMTs (Celeres, Brazil) respectively, which are both above current estimates from the USDA and CONAB. Both groups cited weather difficulties in parts of the far south, but added that yields in the north were making up for this so far.
- According to data from private Russian consultancy IKAR, export prices for Russian 12.5% protein wheat were quoted higher on the week for the third week in a row amid on an ongoing decline in the ruble and logistics issues that have been caused by cold weather and ice at ports. FOB prices for March delivery were seen at $231/MT, which was up $2 from the week prior.
- The USDA announced on Monday that it was shifting its defense strategy in combating the New World screwworm pest by moving sterile fly dispersal operations north, closer to the US-Mexico border, though the nearest confirmed cases still remain about 200 miles south of here. The move comes amid increased activity in northern Mexico, and is intended to create a buffer zone to prevent the pest from reaching the US.
EXPORT NEWS:
- N/A
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
