Morning Markets: Corn: +2.75.
Beans: +7.50. Wheat: +5.75.
TFG Customer Appreciation Lunches are on! 11:30am-1:30pm!!
Come get a pork chop!
TODAY!! ~ Cisco
TOMORROW! ~ Johnston Siding
The United Church of Atwood will be serving pork chop lunches Saturday, 10/3 from 11am-1pm in Pierson by free-will donation!
The Sadorus 4H all stars will be selling BBQ meals and baked goods Sunday, 10/4 from 11am-1:30pm in Milmine
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Overnight ag trade has been mostly in the green to begin wrapping up the month of September and ahead of today's quarterly USDA updates, though volume has again been on the lighter side so far amid minimal new input since the close yesterday. While balance sheets and supply and demand fundamentals will get a lot of attention between now and the end of next week, its ongoing disruptions in the Middle East and in the Black Sea that will continue to have more impact on prices longer term, along with whether or not China shows up for US grain purchases. There's also weather risk via El Niño in South America and inflation risk in the US, and the combination of all those things likely keeps the long side of the market more crowded than not into the end of the calendar year. Corn futures to start Wednesday are trading 2-3 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 6-7 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 4-6 cents higher.
Crude Oil is up $1.43 at $90.81
US Dollar is down at $101.17
Dow futures are up 131 points at 51,833
Trivia: What sandwich cookie, introduced by Nabisco in 1912, remains the best-selling cookie in the U.S.? (answer below)
WEATHER:
- Forecasts in South America are calling for largely a continuation of the same weather pattern seen across Brazil through much of September going into the new month, with areas in the south expected to continue seeing near-daily rainfall chances, while the north stays on the drier side for the most part. Temperatures look to stay variable as well, with the two week forecast showing cooler biases across the western half of the country, while the east stays warmer.
- Models are little changed again on the US forecast this morning, with potentially heavy rainfall still expected to impact an area from AZ/NM in the southwest to WI/MI and the broader Great Lakes region in the north between now and the weekend. Totals will be variable, but generally look to fall in a range of 2-4", with some locally heavier precip possible. However, beyond this weekend, forecasts see a drier pattern then emerging again, with little if any additional rainfall expected through next week.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- This morning's quarterly stocks and annual small grains update is expected to show Sep 1 corn stocks at 1.918 bil bu, soybean stocks at 324 mil bu, and wheat stocks at 1.889 bil bu. Total 2026 wheat production is seen at 1.524 bil bu, while 2025 corn production is seen at 17.003 bil bu and 2025 soybean production is seen at 4.261 bil bu.
- Also due out this morning is weekly ethanol data from the EIA, which is expected to show average daily production across the US in the week ending September 25th between 1.000-1.100 mil bbls, while stocks during the week are seen between 23.935-25.200 mil bbls; on average, the production figure would be up from last week, but stocks would be lower.
- The European Commission made similar cuts Wednesday to those announced by MARS earlier this week, trimming total grain production in the bloc during the 2026/27 season to just 262 MMTs, a decline of nearly 10% from last year. Corn production was seen at 48.3 MMTs, down another 4% from last month, while wheat production was unchanged on the month at 124.2 MMTs.
- Staying in the EU, there were reports this week that there were currently no discussions happening between the bloc and Ukraine to renegotiate export quotas under the current trade agreement between the two. A spokesperson said trade data to this point "proves the fair and balanced nature" of revised quota volumes which were adopted last year. There had been talk that quotas could be revised due to ongoing disruptions in the Black Sea.
- Not necessarily a new development, but China's Commerce Ministry said this week that as of Tuesday, Brazil had met its beef export quota for the year and that shipments would now face an additional 55% tariff beginning on October 1. Australia, another major beef supplier to China, hit its export quota in June. There was talk in recent weeks that Uruguay would give Brazil part of its unused quota to China for the remainder of the year, but it’s unclear where that situation stands amid there having been no formal announcement.
EXPORT NEWS:
- Private exporters reported sales of 105,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2026/2027 marketing year.
Answer: The Oreo
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
