Morning Markets: Corn: -1.00.
Beans: -4.25. Wheat: -3.75.
All TFG locations will be closed on Thursday, November 27th and Friday, November 28th for the Thanksgiving Holiday. The Monticello office will be open from 8am-12pm on Friday, the 28th for any customer needs. Thank you and have a safe and Happy Thanksgiving!!
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Monday trade is mostly lower to start the holiday-shortened Thanksgiving week at the CBOT, with the wheat market the early leader to the downside on continued peace talk progressions between Russia and Ukraine and as there wasn't a lot of new news over the weekend otherwise. Last week, President Trump seemed to set a Thursday deadline for Ukraine to either accept his latest proposal or risk losing US aid and intelligence, but comments out of State Secretary Mark Rubio more recently described the deadline as "flexible"; Rubio added that productive talks were had in Geneva over the weekend, but it remains unclear whether Ukraine will accept the plan or present another counter offer. Otherwise, the week looks to again feature any possible headlines with China as one of the only notable talking points, with the Thursday holiday and shortened day of trade on Friday likely to significantly cut volume by the close on Wednesday. Corn futures to get the week started are trading 1-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 3-6 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 5-6 cents lower. Products are lower, soybean meal is down around $2/ton and soybean oil is down 40-50 points. Outside markets are quietly mixed, crude oil futures are near unchanged, the Dow Jones index is up 120 points, and the US$ index is down 5-10 points; the S&P500 is up 40 points and the NASDAQ is up 190 points.
Crude Oil is up $0.04 at $58.10
US Dollar is down at $99.995
Global Equities: Japan +0.0%, China +0.0%, and Europe +0.0%
Dow futures are up 150 points at 46,471
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn +0.0% and Wheat +0.0%
WEATHER:
- Following scattered, mostly light rains through the mid-south and southeastern US the back half of last week, the Midwest saw mostly benign conditions over the weekend through most areas, as highs continued to be well above average for this time of year and rainfall was limited to mostly areas further south and west in TX/OK.
- As we get into this week, models see this system in the south continuing to provide rainfall and thunderstorm activity to the mid-south and southeastern US through generally the end of the day tomorrow, while another, smaller, system looks to work across the northern part of the country maybe 12-24 hours later, providing moisture mostly in the form of snowfall to parts of the Dakotas/MN/WI. Low pressure then looks to keep sweeping over the Rockies into the back half of the week, with a larger system then expected to drop snowfall across most all of the Midwest Friday/Saturday/Sunday.
- South of the equator, weekend weather in South America was a mixed bag, with Argentina seeing mostly welcome dry conditions over the last 72 hours, while monsoonal rains continued to fall over most all of Brazil's growing regions. There were pockets in southern/southwest Brazil that maybe missed out or were on the drier side than others, but generally speaking, the weekend moisture was as expected or even better than expected for most areas.
- Forecasts for this week show this pattern largely continuing then, with Argentina not expecting any rainfall now until the end of the week and weekend, while Brazil expects rains to continue falling on a regular basis through the week, with the best totals continuing to favor places in the north and north-central part of the country. Like we mentioned last week, amid flooding issues in parts of Argentina, the drier forecast here, combined with regular monsoonal rains in Brazil, continues to offer little in the way of threats for either growing region.
- The USDA's Cattle on Feed report for the month of November, which had both the current data and the delayed October data, showed the US feedlot herd as of November 1 at 11.706 mil head, which is 98% of last year. Placements in October were seen at 2.039 mil head, down 10% from last year, and marketings in the month were seen at 1.697 mil head, down 8% from last year.
- The USDA on Friday also released delayed data from July and August for both the monthly Fats and Oils report and also the monthly Grain Crushing report; the Fats and Oils report showed July soybean crush in the US at 205 mil bu, while August crush was seen at 198 mil bu. The August figure, while down from the month prior, was still up more than 18% from the same month last year, and compares to a previous NOPA estimate of 190 mil bu. The report also showed soybean oil stocks in the US as of the end of August at 1.788 bil lbs, which is up nearly 10% from last year.
- The Grain Crushing report showed the US used 458 mil bu of corn for the production of ethanol in July, with the August figure seen at 463 mil bu; this latest number was down 3% from the same month last year. Total corn usage in August was seen at 511 mil bu, down 4% from the same month last year.
- CFTC Commitment of Traders data released Friday afternoon for the week ending October 7th showed managed money traders in that week were sellers of 6,656 contracts of corn (net-short 141,966), buyers of 38,359 contracts of soybeans (net-short 353) and buyers of 1,852 contracts of Chicago wheat (net-short 97,356). In soy products, funds were buyers of 1,559 contracts of meal (net-short 116,044) and were buyers of 8,288 contracts of oil (net-long 6,831). The CFTC's next update, with data for the week ending October 14th, will be tomorrow on Tuesday the 25th.
- Lastly on the catch-up news from late last week, Tyson Foods announced on Friday that it would be closing a major beef plant in Lexington, NE in January as US cattle supplies continue to dwindle and have dropped to their lowest level in nearly 75 years. The company added that it would also be reducing operations at a plant in Amarillo, TX, with combined shifts between the two locations expected to affect some roughly 5,000 employees. Tyson said the changes were expected to take place around January 20th and that it planned on increasing production at other facilities to meet consumer demand.
- Over in Europe, French crop body FranceAgriMer said in its weekly update that soft wheat planting in the country had reached 95% complete as of last week, while 98% of the crop was rated either good or excellent; the condition rating is unchanged from last week but still up from last year's 88% reading as of the same week. Meanwhile, the Russian ruble has continued to strengthen on odds that a peace deal is reached sooner than later, which has brought into question an expected export tax increase that was set to go into effect on Wednesday.
- In the financial world this week, talks about whether the Fed will make another rate cut in December will likely continue dominating most of the headlines, with Fed Fund futures early this morning again seeing rather volatile trade and the week has barely even begun. From a data standpoint, the holiday-shortened week will feature a delayed update on US retail sales from September, and also a GDP update and the Fed's latest Beige Book release on Wednesday.
EXPORT NEWS:
- Private exporters reported sales of 123,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2025/2026 marketing year.
Noah Richardson
Topflight Grain Seymour
202 N Main Street, Seymour IL 61875
nrichardson@tfgrain.com
www.topflightgrain.com
