Morning Markets: Corn: -2.50.
Beans: +0.50. Wheat: -4.50.
TFG is offering a drying incentive at ALL LOCATIONS TODAY!! through Sunday 9/13!
2 1/2 cents per pt of moisture up to 30%. Regular rates above.
Harvest hours will be used as needed!
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Commodity markets to start Wednesday are trading largely similar to how they ended the day on Tuesday, with CBOT ag futures quiet and in relatively light volume ahead of the USDA's September WASDE update at the end of the week. Headline risk surrounding both of the ongoing wars remains present, but at least temporarily here, traders seem to be pressing the pause button on new bet placing until they get another round of crop estimates from the government on Friday and see whether or not ending stocks fall further. That said, barring new geopolitical headlines, position squaring and risk adjustment are likely to be the main trade themes the next couple sessions, with more two-sided, non-trending trade likely. Corn futures at mid-week are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading near unchanged but off the overnight highs.
Crude Oil is up $2.72 at $95.75
US Dollar is down at $98.68
Dow futures are down 279 points at 52,553
WEATHER:
- Radar data this morning has a line of thunderstorms working across the central part of the Corn Belt generally along I-80, as the pattern shift mentioned at the beginning of the week is starting to take hold. Models have additional storms then a little further south Thursday into Friday, but rainfall totals don't look to be more than an inch through the end of the day on Friday according to this morning's EU model run.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- Light delivery slate this morning according to the CME Group, with just 38 contracts of meal and 45 contracts of rough rice assigned overnight.
- At the state level, NC fell 9% on the week in the G/EX category, while ND, NE and MO all fell 5% and MN was down 4%; CO and KY were each up 5% on the week, while SD was up 3%. For the beans, KS and MO fell 7% on the week and NC was down 6%; AR was up 5%, KY and LA were up 4% and MI and SD were up 3%.
- Private ag consultancy StoneX on Monday lowered their US corn yield estimate from 184.8 bu/acre previously to 182.9, which remains well above the USDA's latest estimate. However, production estimates were actually increased to 16.207 bil bu on the planted area increase seen last month. For soybeans, the group pegged production at 4.547 bil bu, which was up slightly from last month, while yields were steady at 53.0 bu/acre.
- Russia's largest Black Sea grain port Novorossiysk again came under drone attack last night according to local officials, with satellite data this morning showing fresh heat anomalies that likely indicate new fires as a result of the strikes. Officials did not provide detail on which if any port facilities/terminals were affected.
- Despite the record strong El Niño that is likely to impact Central and South America in the coming months, officials at the Panama Canal say the waterway is in better shape to handle the phenomenon than it was three years ago when the last El Niño was present due to ample dry-season rains, as well as water conservation measures that have been in place. Daily transits have been lowered to 34 already and are expected to drop to 32, but this remains well above the 22/day that were seen in the 2023/24 season.
- The IRS on Tuesday published Notice 2026-53, which issued additional guidance regarding the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit in the form of the emissions rate table used to calculate the credit. The notice also provides context regarding the use of manure-derived fuels and regenerative farm practices. "This guidance helps unlock billions of dollars for America's agricultural producers," said IRS CEO Frank Bisignano.
- The new trade war between the US and Canada is continuing to simmer, with the White House on Tuesday announcing bans on imports of a swath of Canadian alcoholic beverages, motorcycles, and dairy products beginning at the end of the month. Several other items including cheese products, some paper, aluminum, wood, and furniture were also added to a 50% tariff list.
EXPORT NEWS:
- 182,880 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2026/2027 marketing year
- 340,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2026/2027 marketing year
- 100,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2026/2027 marketing year
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
